Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

(0:00) Bestie intros! (4:55) Sacks recaps election night at Mar-a-Lago (8:28) Analyzing the results: how Trump won, why Kamala and the Democratic Party lost (25:55) The failing Democratic coalition, campaign spend disparity, Trump's advantage in earned media (37:59) What mattered most: Policy, Candidate, or Campaign? (50:44) GOP will likely win House and Senate, potential cabinet positions, avoiding neocons (1:10:42) Cabinet positions, shaking up the unelected bureaucratic branch (1:28:47) California rejects progressives (1:35:17) Abortion laws being settled around the US Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!: https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1854192602985255042 https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president https://x.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1854515791690953066 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e8-KX3XKL8 https://x.com/Jason/status/1854209590424121464 https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1854045298475110779 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1854342908356297068 https://x.com/arifleischer/status/1854270972775305291 https://www.fec.gov/data/spending-bythenumbers/?office=P https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-11-01/16-billion-will-be-spent-in-the-2024-election-wheres-it-all-going https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1829383729284067659 https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-very-fine-people https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1840977783247286429 https://www.cnn.com/election/2024 https://polymarket.com/event/house-control-after-2024-election https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1854536321282519396 https://www.instagram.com/p/DCFJ4mlsmEG/?hl=en https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1854202717637411199 https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-chevron-curtailing-power-of-federal-agencies https://x.com/chamath/status/1854229735477551600 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/la-district-attorney-progressive-loses-re-election-gascon-rcna175906 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-abortion.html

(0:00) Bestie intros! (5:40) US Real GDP growth comes in at 2.8%, but there are underlying issues (29:16) Google earnings: YouTube and Cloud post huge quarters, would they have survived outside of Google? (36:24) Sacks's idea to auction off public spectrum licenses of major broadcast networks (42:17) How the media became one of the least trusted institutions in the US (54:26) Why Joe Rogan's interview with Trump was not appearing in YouTube search results (1:08:54) Final pre-election segment: how it's tracking, election integrity, voter fraud stats Get notified for the Election Night Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4Xaqgd9-Ro Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!: https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 https://x.com/freesites_com/status/1851615700869144908 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/dropbox-slashes-20percent-of-global-workforce-eliminating-500-roles.html https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S https://www.commercebank.com/about-us/prime-rate-update https://www.fdic.gov/system/files/2024-05/unrealized-gains-losses-on-investment-securities.png https://abc.xyz/assets/71/a5/78197a7540c987f13d247728a371/2024q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/google-cfo-says-company-can-push-a-little-further-in-cost-savings.html https://variety.com/2024/digital/news/youtube-q3-2024-advertising-revenue-growth-1236193926 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1818467743479542130 https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861/media-confidence-matches-2016-record-low.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/508169/historically-low-faith-institutions-continues.aspx https://www.axios.com/2023/10/24/americans-trust-in-media-plummets-to-historic-low-poll https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1850277560816681255 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1850979360037356001/photo/1 https://x.com/davidsacks/status/1844429818554876026 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1851745648313602189

(0:00) Bestie intros! (3:49) Announcement: Besties are hosting The All-In Holiday Spectacular in San Francisco on December 7th! Get tickets: https://allin.com/events (9:08) Macro and markets: making sense of unique asset diversions (27:23) Gen Z's economic cultural movements (38:28) Reallocating assets for a new period of constraints (53:52) Election update: Data leans Trump as we enter the home stretch (1:19:01) Is Starbucks fixable? Or has it hit market saturation? Get tickets to The All-In Holiday Spectacular: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://allin.com/events https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/tudor-jones-is-long-gold-and-bitcoin-as-hedge-fund-titan-believes-all-roads-lead-to-inflation.html https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stanley-druckenmiller-says-hes-shorting-u-s-bonds-and-staying-out-of-china-1fcf751e https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/cpi-inflation-september-2024.html https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-tax-report-international/uk-budget-fears-push-owners-to-close-firms-to-avoid-tax-hikes https://www.banque-france.fr/en/statistics/compagnies/business-failures-france-2024-09 https://www.reuters.com/markets/brazil-inflation-expectations-above-target-says-cenbank-director-picchetti-2024-10-23 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/14/more-than-half-of-gen-z-want-to-be-influencers-but-its-constant.html https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/influencer-marketing-trends-report https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/ruminating-on-asset-allocation https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/polymarket-trump-french-election-bet.html https://x.com/scubaryan_/status/1848072120699625968 https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/video/border-wall-kamala-harris-cnn-town-hall-digvid https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1849467713711710699 https://x.com/scubaryan_/status/1848072120699625968 https://awfulannouncing.com/barstool/dave-portnoy-turned-down-kamala-harris-interview.html https://investor.starbucks.com/news/financial-releases/news-details/2024/Starbucks-Reports-Preliminary-Q4-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx

(0:00) Bestie intros (2:01) Polls vs Prediction markets, dueling interviews, election update (16:06) Tesla's Robotaxi event and SpaceX's Starship catch (27:36) Uber reportedly looking into acquiring Expedia (45:19) Nuclear Vibe Shift? Big tech is looking toward nuclear solutions to power AI (1:11:10) Lawfare from the California Coastal Commission Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1729285428575 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1846826782797799580 https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1845472475322462468 https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1839424008900477354 https://www.ft.com/content/94a25bf7-e62b-462a-a4f0-e4feb6e244f7 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EXPE:NASDAQ https://companiesmarketcap.com/expedia/revenue https://x.com/Jason/status/1847016512583786921 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/16/amazon-goes-nuclear-investing-more-than-500-million-to-develop-small-module-reactors.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/14/google-inks-deal-with-nuclear-company-as-data-center-power-demand-surges.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/20/constellation-energy-to-restart-three-mile-island-and-sell-the-power-to-microsoft.html https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/california-coastal-commission-elon-musk-00184017

(0:00) Announcement from Friedberg (0:18) Besties intro JD Vance! (3:33) America's innovation problem (5:04) Thoughts on Trump (8:53) Would JD Vance have certified the election in 2020? (12:02) Increasing government efficiency, shrinking the deficit, Vance's role as VP, thoughts on EOs (19:35) Political realignment: Dick Cheney endorses Kamala Harris, winners and losers of the last 30 years (23:58) Thoughts on Lina Khan clamping down on tech M&A and her impact on the startup ecosystem (25:55) Fixing the Southern Border (32:16) How to practically approach deportations, who's coming in through the Southern Border? (36:51) Relationship with China Follow JD Vance: https://x.com/JDVance Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros! (3:18) The science behind Hurricanes Helene and Milton (14:59) The economics of intensifying natural disasters (29:03) AlphaFold creators win Nobel Prize in Chemistry (35:17) The Jayter's Ball (38:53) Google antitrust update: DOJ is going for a breakup (53:32) VC giveback: CRV will return ~$275M of a $500M fund to LPs (1:03:44) New TikTok survey shows increased usage as a news source (1:15:26) Election update: Are polling problems causing a strategy shift for Kamala Harris? Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://allin.com/meetups https://youtube.com/@allin https://allin.com/tequila https://allin.com https://x.com/Ry_Bass/status/1844367980249178396 https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-helene-update-economic-losses-damage-could-total-160-billion-1961240 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2024-enso-update-binge-watch https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3 https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1844166857655533811 https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/sfury.html https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03214-7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/us-says-it-s-weighing-google-breakup-as-remedy-in-monopoly-case https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rtKjE02hAh_k/v0 https://x.com/AOC/status/1844034727935988155 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/02/technology/crv-vc-fund-returning-money.html https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/founders-fund-slashes-vc-peter-thiel https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/17/more-americans-regularly-get-news-on-tiktok-especially-young-adults https://www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/2024/10/08/who-u-s-adults-follow-on-tiktok https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russia-pays-criminals-to-sow-mayhem-in-europe-warns-u-k-spy-chief-21ab960c https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1844418916107341948 https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1844803367740096811 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1829383729284067659

(0:00) Announcement from Friedberg (0:24) Besties intro Elon Musk! (1:23) The Battle of Free Speech (10:24) Potential government efficiency agency (27:45) SpaceX updates, overreaching regulations (36:10) Thoughts on Boeing's culture (38:27) The 80/20 AI Future (54:03) Elon and Jason share unaired SNL skits Follow Elon: https://x.com/elonmusk Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) The Besties intro Mark Cuban: Voting record, working with Ross Perot's campaign in 1992 (5:43) The history of Cuban's love/hate relationship with Trump (19:08) Trump's performance as President: what he got right and wrong (40:46) Party nominations: Kamala vs. Trump (49:18) Biden's performance as President: what he got right and wrong (55:45) Should Kamala share blame for Biden's failures? (1:07:01) International conflict, national debt, crypto regulation (1:21:33) General sense of Kamala Harris, why she's been avoiding adversarial interviews, why Sacks supports Trump (1:31:47) Selling a majority of his Mavericks stake, changing business landscape of the NBA, what he's working on at Cost Plus Drugs (1:44:50) Thoughts on AI, what's next for him (1:51:37) Relationship with Elon, re-evaluating the Twitter deal, OpenAI's new fundraise Follow Mark: https://x.com/mcuban Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/wait-are-windowless-bedrooms-going-to-be-a-thing https://washingtonreporter.news/editorial/scoop-kamala-harris-likely-to-nominate-gary-gensler-as-treasury-secretary-if-elected-senate-sources

(0:00) Announcement from Friedberg! (0:21) Sacks intros John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs (1:32) What is the Deep State Party, and what are their goals? (13:56) Should America leverage its power against dictators? (22:07) The China threat: avoiding the escalatory path to nuclear war (36:08) India's growing role; are China's wounds self-inflicted? (47:07) Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros: In Memoriam (6:43) OpenAI's $150B valuation: bull and bear cases (24:46) Will AI hurt or help SaaS incumbents? (40:41) Implications from OpenAI's for-profit conversion (49:57) Meta's impressive new AR glasses: is this the killer product for the age of AI? (1:09:05) Blue collar boom: trades are becoming more popular with young people as entry-level tech jobs dry up (1:20:55) Risk of nuclear war increasing Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openais-stunning-150-billionvaluation-hinges-upending-corporate-structure-2024-09-14/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/openai-cto-mira-murati-says-she-will-leave-the-company https://x.com/chiefaioffice https://openai.com/our-structure https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1658664383717978112 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1839121268521492975 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/26/zuckerberg-meta-white-house-pressure-00176399 https://appleinsider.com/articles/12/12/28/early-apple-prototypes-by-frog-designs-hartmut-esslinger-featured-in-upcoming-book https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/the-toolbelt-generation-why-teens-are-losing-faith-in-college.html https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-jobs-artificial-intelligence-cce22393 https://layoffs.fyi https://educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-20/zelenskiy-to-push-us-for-nato-invite-weapons-guarantees