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Wave of Conservative MP Resignations
To be fair, we knew this would be an issue for the Conservatives even before the election was announced. Prior to the election announcement, 66 Conservative MPs had already declared that they would stand down at the next election. Considering that the Conservatives held 344 seats before the election, this means roughly 20% of Conservative MPs are resigning at this election.
Since the election was called, we have seen even more MPs announce their resignations. As of 9:00 AM on May 29th, the number has risen to 77. This group of 77 includes some very high-profile figures such as Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee; Chris Grayling, former Transport Secretary; George Eustice, former Environment Secretary; Michael Gove, Levelling Up Secretary and former Education Secretary; Matt Hancock, former Health Secretary; Sajid Javid, former Chancellor; and even Theresa May, former Prime Minister. In fact, of the 77 stepping down, 22 are either current or former Secretaries of State.
Comparison of Resignation Numbers in Elections
Indeed, the number of MPs resigning in this election is high. In 2019, only 32 Conservative MPs resigned, and in 2017, this number was just 12. However, this is not the highest number of resignations seen by an incumbent party during an election. Even back in 2010, 100 Labour MPs stepped down, although it's worth noting that MPs were embroiled in the expenses scandal at that time.
The Conservatives' Challenge in Selecting Candidates
With the election day approaching, the Conservatives now need to find candidates to replace these outgoing MPs. This is no small task. According to The Spectator, Labour is far ahead of the Conservatives in finalising their candidates. The deadline for this is Friday, June 7th, and as of Monday, the Conservatives still had 160 vacancies to fill.
While this sounds like a daunting task, there are some signs that they might be able to meet this target. The Spectator points out that many of the remaining constituencies are unwinnable, with many of them located in Labour strongholds in inner London. As a result, few candidates typically apply for these seats. These seats should be relatively easy for the party to find candidates for and should not take them too long.
However, the more challenging task lies in a handful of more attractive seats, those that appear more winnable, which have become available following the recent resignations of Tory MPs. Examples of such seats include Jo Churchill’s Bury St Edmunds seat, Andrea Leadsom’s South Northamptonshire seat, and Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath seat. These constituencies have majorities of 24,999 votes, 27,761 votes, and 18,349 votes, respectively. The Conservatives will want to select their candidates much more carefully here as whoever they select stands a much greater chance of winning.
Conclusion
All in all, this is going to be a tricky task for the Conservatives, and whether they succeed is anyone’s guess at this point.
