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The yield on the 10-year bond recently fell below the rate paid by the Fed on bank reserves. That is, a bank gets paid more to lend to the Fed for a day than to lend to the Treasury for ten years. There is not merely an inversion between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds. Nor even the 3-month and 10-year. Now the overnight and 10-year bond are inverted.
We explain why this is absolutely crazy.
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