The Event Horizon Podcast

How miserable are people? It turns out we can use prediction markets to measure that! Lucas Kohorst, the co-founder of Adjacent Markets, talks about it.Subscribe nowAnd Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down the week’s news.If you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits.Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100.Show notes:ElectionsTo block states or not to blockArkansas!California tribesTakers losing on parlays at KalshiDigital rips + prediction marketsThe Misery Index This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Are election markets good or bad for society, or a bit of both? I am joined this week by Sam Henry Lazarus, a geoeconomics analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations who recently did a deep dive on election betting.And Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down the week’s news.Subscribe nowIf you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits.Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100.Show notes:Utah and legal wranglings/criminal chargesNBA gets involved in prediction marketsKalshi is valued at $40 billionPolymarket users got hackedHedging!Betting on Democracy: The Promise and Perils of Election Markets (Council on Foreign Relations) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down the week’s news from NEXTPredict in New York City.If you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits.Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100.Show notes:CFTC might limit some sports event contractsDraftKings CEO Robins: However SCOTUS Rules On Sports Contracts, We Win (InGame): “DraftKings CEO Jason Robins says the company is in a “win-win spot,” unlike most prediction markets or sportsbooks, where it should succeed regardless of how the Supreme Court views sports event contracts.”Department of Defense bans use of nonpublic info at prediction marketsUtah and Ohio vs. prediction markets This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

We all know that prediction market behavior can be used a signal for real-world events, and sometimes insider trading. I spoke with Dan Zimmermann, Chief Intelligence Officer at BETINT, to talk about how his company is trying to surface that information in real time.Plus the week in prediction markets news with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.Show notes:-NewsDraftKings joins Kalshi with injury protectionCFTC’s New Swap Definitions Are Latest Courtroom Play, But May Not Sway Judges (InGame): “The rules do two different things that are two sides of the same coin. Number one, amending the swap definition to explicitly include these types of contracts, and the other one amending it to explicitly exclude casino games and sportsbook bets,” one commodity futures lawyer told InGame.BetMGM talks prediction marketsElection betting isn’t popular?Prediction markets and responsible gaming with NBA/WNBA-BETINTUsed by the Wall Street Journal: https://x.com/schwartzbWSJ/status/2108734477182620149?s=20In NBC News This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

A market where you can trade about the past? As soon as I saw that, I had to talk to the CEO of Verifact!Plus a look at recent developments in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.Show notes:NewsSCOTUS briefs and Seminoles sue DraftKings:Seminoles Sue DraftKings; NFL, AGA File SCOTUS BriefsInvestigation of the CFTCKalshi fee growthVerifact MarketsSitePress release: Verifact Markets launches the first trading platform built to resolve disputed facts. This is a new category of markets, focused on topics of public interest where people genuinely disagree about what is true.“We’re living in the age of disputed facts. Making or amplifying a claim has never been easier. Resolving one has never been harder,” said Rodrigo Aquino, CEO of Verifact Markets. “Our company exists to change that.”Story at Wired This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Football season is underway, and prediction markets are booming. But what are the numbers about trading volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and beyond really telling us? Eric Ramsey of TickerTracker (and Event Horizon contributor) stops by to break it down.Plus a look at recent developments in prediction markets with Daniel O’Boyle of InGame.Show notes:Kalshi raiseNovig tooVs. FanDuel and DraftKings valuationsBrad Allen@BradAllenNFLKalshi worth nearly twice as much as Flutter and DraftKings combined despite doing significantly less handle than both (we estimate a conversion for PM volume to handle) Responsible tradingNCPG executive director outPolymarket launches responsible tradingSportsbook user who self-excluded started using prediction marketsHow to pay taxes on prediction markets?Parlays Propel Kalshi To Back-To-Back Volume Records To Open Football Season This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Leif Abraham, a co-founder and co-CEO of Public.com, came on the show to talk about the company’s launch of prediction markets via Kalshi.From the press release:Public, the world's first agentic brokerage, today announced the launch of AI Agents for Prediction Markets, enabling members to trade on events that can shape financial markets and connect them with the rest of their portfolio. People can trade events directly or have AI agents trade on their behalf. For example, Public's AI agents can use prediction market data as a signal for a stock or bond trade.And Daniel O’Boyle of InGame talks about all the latest news in prediction markets.Show notes:Mention marketsTrump Jr. catching strays from Republicans and DemocratsWSJ on Polymarket + KalshiIs stuff actually “free” at a prediction market?A Kevin Costner retreat on prediction markets? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

I spoke with Will Brooke, the co-founder of the startup Herisson, about the future of hedging and insurance via prediction markets.From the company’s website:“We’re building Herisson because the tools that enable the world’s largest companies to hedge against one-off, event-driven risk should be accessible to companies of all sizes.”And as always, Daniel O’Boyle of InGame is here to break down all the latest news in prediction markets.Show notes:Kalshi volume and parlays + feesTexas messing with prediction marketsAnother loss for Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets.Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals.Show notes:Kalshi on recent enforcement actionsNovig and Sydney SweeneyDraftKings ads directly referring to KalshiSports is still pretty big! NFL letter to prediction marketsIf you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits.Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product.Show notes:New Jersey appeals to SCOTUS.Kalshi gets US Open deal.Injury markets.Kalshi bans George Santos. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com