The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

We kick off the Expecting Goals - Double Pivot integration with some of our Moneyball picks. Which striker is maybe a little goofy but who cares he’s getting shots? Which team has successfully recreated their lost star in the aggregate? And then we explain why the Double Pivot podcast is on Expecting Goals now. We are going full-time. The podcast and the newsletter are now going to be joint ventures, with Mike Goodman writing regularly for Expecting Goals beginning on December 7. We are both very excited about this, but we also do need a meaningful revenue increase to make this a workable longterm plan. There are discounted subscriptions at the Double Double level to support us and to get access to all the newsletters and all the podcasts and everything Double Pivot + Expecting Goals. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribeI have hosted the Double Pivot Podcast along with Mike Goodman for over a decade. We are now going to be integrating the Double Pivot into Expecting Goals over the next month. This is going to involve many new features and publications, but we are starting with the most obvious first: all Double Pivot episodes are going to be available on Expecting Goal…

This podcast is mostly about El Clasico. Real Madrid got a late winner, but they had been the better team for most of the match in both surprising and unsurprising ways. We break down their effective defense, the unexpected role of Yan Diomande, the way they broke Barcelona's press, and some of our concerns about Barcelona in matches where they can't turn everything into transition. There's a little bonus Valencia talk at the front and some United discussion at the back. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

The various rules that the IFAB implemented to speed up play across soccer appear to be working. The ball is in play more, there are shorter delays before restarts from throw-ins and goal kicks, and there are many fewer delays for treatment on the pitch. But that last rule, which disincentivizes treatment by forcing players who receive treatment to stay off the pitch for another minute, is creating a strange situation where teams have a massive one-minute advantage, effectively a power play. We discuss just how large this advantage is, why it's even bigger than expected, and how this could become a big story soon.Expecting Goals blog: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-football-injury-delays-xg-advantageNote: some of the numbers in this podcast were scaled too high because of a clumsy miscalculation. The advantage in shots is about 20 to 3 over a match and the advantage in xG about 2.1 to 0.2. All the ratios and the overall advantage are still correct. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

The Liverpool-City match threw this problem into relief. Everyone knows some kind of punishment is coming for Manchester City, and probably an enormous one. But what happens to the 2026-27 season that is now being played under the conditions that will be set in part by that punishment? We discuss the institutional features of the Premier League that put it in this predicament, the impossibility and yet the necessity of placating fans, do another round on fairness and injustice, and what we think maybe kinda sorta should happen. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

People expect that Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappe are the favorites to win the Ballon d'Or. We go into some depth on what that means: how do you win the Ballon d'Or, who votes on it, and what criteria they are encouraged to follow? We discuss what we might wish the Ballon d'Or would be and who our picks would be, and our best breakdown of a semi-coherent thought processes by which the actual Ballon d'Or will be decided. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

It is reported that the Premier League's indepedent panel has ruled that Manchester City committed 114 breaches of league rules. The Double Pivot has been covering this story for nearly a decade and we do not plan to stop. We explain under what exact legal auspices this investigation and now verdict were issued, why and how the Premier League came to a point where maximal punishments for Man City are on the table, the underlying rules and their relation to competitive fairness, the unknowable timeline of what comes next and all the ways this could still spiral further. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

We have tables to sort and Caley has a toy model and some thoughts on regression. It is time to talk about City and Arsenal at the top of the table, why they're the best teams in the league but what concerns the early numbers reveal, and then... Brentford and Brighton. Because it does seem like the Premier League midtable starts at third. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

We take a look at the early season data on set pieces and whether things feel different because they are different, or whether set pieces are still due for a big comeback. And then it's on to Arsenal: are they just the same? Liverpool, United and Chelsea: why aren't they good yet? And whether there's anyone in the Premier League who can take advantage of the early stumbles of some of the richest clubs. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe

We talk briefly about some of the very best teams in the world and why Barcelona and Real Madrid are currently rated about equally with Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich, why City look one step back, and then we work through the more complicated questions at the back of the top 10: Liverpool or Inter Milan? United or Como, Roma, Atletico, or Dortmund?Plus a little bit on why the draw did not benefit the Premier League this season. Support the show This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.expectinggoals.com/subscribe