Right to the Source

Right to the Source returns after Nigel Eccles’ candid interview. Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin touch on FanDuel again in the latest episode, then explore a few key themes in the gambling industry. On top of that, there is something our listeners have been missing: prediction markets are back. NFL prediction markets: headwind or hype? Ed shares H2’s unreleased prediction market data set. The NFL sportsbook handle is roughly flat for the year, up 0.4% in reporting states and down 1% once Florida is included. That is the net result of around 4% organic growth and a 4-5% headwind from prediction markets. Prediction markets are also taking a bigger slice of the pie. Their share of the combined handle in regulated states has jumped from around 5% six months ago to roughly 15%. Aggressive spending around the World Cup and through August drove much of that rise.  Which state feels the biggest headwind? The hint: it has a warmer climate. Tune in to find out. Robin and Ed also explore the legal uncertainty around prediction markets. Ed relays views from a recent US trip, where many expect the fight between states and the CFTC to reach the Supreme Court around 2027-28. Events are already moving. As Matt Rybaltowski reported, the NFL has since filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to review Flaherty v. KalshiEx, LLC. Lottomatica and Cirsa: does M&A really add value? The episode wraps up with a lively exchange on acquisitions in the industry. Robin and Ed compare a few recent deals, including the earlier Banijay and Tipico merger, with Flutter as the central case study.  Ed argues nobody has proven that Flutter’s acquisitions created value beyond FanDuel. Where does Lottomatica’s acquisition of Cirsa fit in? Tune in to hear the pair’s verdict. Chapters (00:00:12) - Introduction and Western Movie Banter(00:01:56) - Watching The Godfather(00:04:04) - US Trip and Professional Bull Riding(00:06:17) - NFL Betting Handle and Prediction Market Headwinds(00:09:57) - Calendar Impact on NFL Hold and Q3 Earnings(00:12:21) - Florida Impact and the Clarity Act Stall(00:14:59) - Legal Uncertainty and Prediction Markets' Future(00:18:27) - Taxation Challenges for Prediction Markets(00:20:39) - Boom-Bust Dynamics vs Enduring Gambling Products(00:23:40) - UK Advertising Ban Debate(00:26:42) - Retail Betting Shops and Gaming Duty Pressures(00:27:26) - Business Experience in Politics Debate(00:31:23) - Gambling and Vaping Politics, Laguna Beach Smoking Ban Story(00:33:32) - Lottomatica-Cirsa Deal and M&A Strategy in Gambling(00:37:47) - Flutter's M&A Track Record and Value Creation Debate(00:45:19) - Wrap Up

Right to the Source is pleased to welcome Nigel Eccles, co-founder of FanDuel and now CEO of Sentient Studios, to join Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin this week.  Nigel walks through the recent court ruling in his long-running case against FanDuel's former board, discusses his new AI dealer venture and shares some sharp views on prediction markets and crypto gambling along the way. Inside the FanDuel lawsuit Nigel co-founded FanDuel in 2009 as a daily fantasy sports business. After PASPA was repealed in 2018, FanDuel merged its US assets with Flutter's. This created a new combined entity in which founders, early investors and employees held 40%.  The board, controlled by preferred shareholders, valued that stake at just $559 million, arguing PASPA's repeal had no impact on its worth. However, comparable companies like DraftKings saw valuations rocket in the same period.  Nigel and over 100 former employees and investors subsequently sued, arguing the board breached its fiduciary duty and engaged in fraud and secret commissions to strip value from common shareholders, before a later sale valued the same stake at $4.2 billion.  As iGB reported at an earlier stage of the case, the defendants have pushed back hard. They claimed Eccles himself mismanaged the company before the sale. Nigel walks through how the case has evolved since, from the early jurisdictional battles to the recent ruling in favour of the claimants. He also gives his honest expectation for how long it could still take to reach trial. Is AI dealer the future of live casino? As Martin Bjoerck recently reported, Nigel has now gone all in on the AI live dealer product. He has shut down his crypto casino BetHog to focus entirely on Sentient Studios and its AI-powered product.  He believes the category has real staying power. The group also agrees there is something missing from traditional live dealer tables and RNG products, which is a niche in the market for AI dealer to capitalise on. Listen in to hear what Nigel thinks will actually drive its growth. Along with a candid discussion on where crypto goes next in gambling, the conversation also throws up some interesting perspectives on prediction markets, a topic that clearly intrigues Ed. Chapters (00:00:12) - Frasier With Ed Birkin(00:01:27) - Nigel Eccles on the FanDuel Court Ruling(00:07:33) - Sportsbooks vs. MGM Resorts(00:08:56) - DraftKings: The valuation of the company(00:11:20) - Flutter vs DraftKings: The Betting Strategy(00:14:34) - Kings on Flutter's Share Split(00:19:46) - The New York Supreme Court's ruling in the Vanda Limited case(00:25:52) - Timeline for the Nassar case(00:27:06) - Pushing the UK's legal boundaries with prediction markets(00:33:25) - Separating Crypto From Gaming(00:37:05) - AI Dealer: Will it Replace Live Casino?(00:42:37) - Have AI Dealers Feasted on Their AI?(00:48:07) - Robot Dealer: AI and Trust(00:51:07) - Ed Has Said He Would Like to Talk To You For Half an

Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin are pleased to welcome Jack Crabtree, Head of Sales at GameCheck, to the latest episode. Jack joins the pair to explain the GameCheck business and discuss the impact fake games have on the industry. How GameCheck works and who it serves Jack explains how GameCheck detects fake or manipulated slot games running on unlicensed or grey market sites, sometimes with altered RTPs.  For operators offering genuine games, GameCheck offers the SEAL, an independent certification badge that signals authenticity. According to Jack, the seal sees particularly strong uptake in less regulated markets like Turkey.  As Robin previously reported, Brazil has become the biggest hotspot GameCheck monitors, with over 6,800 fake games detected in the market alone. Jack unpacks why Brazil's rapid growth has made it such fertile ground for rogue operators. The business works with both operators and suppliers, but it has recently shifted from a pure revenue protection model for suppliers to something more sustainable. Tune in to find out what that looks like. Revenue leakage for suppliers GameCheck and H2 Gambling Capital data puts the number of detected fake games globally at 8,500, though Jack suggests the real figure is likely higher.  The issue is most prevalent in grey or unregulated markets, and one particularly striking finding came from research with BetBlocker: most sites not listed on its blocklist turned out to be operating fakes. So how much revenue is actually leaking out of the industry because of this? Jack has a figure in mind, but you will need to listen in to hear it. Jack also references comments from Evolution's CEO, who has flagged game cloning as one of the single biggest sources of revenue leakage for the company, effectively reducing its RTP to zero on every cloned instance since it earns nothing from the activity.  With studios already under pressure from tightening margins and an oversaturated content pipeline, is this the next issue they cannot afford to ignore? Before wrapping up, listen out for the unfiltered chat that almost did not make the final cut. A hint: one of the hosts prefers Thundercats to He-Man. Chapters (00:00:12) - Jose Canseco and Mark McGuire(00:01:49) - Jack Crabtree on Game Check Podcast(00:02:50) - Are Fake Games Even Legitimate?(00:04:47) - Fake Poker: How Big Is the Problem?(00:07:55) - GameCheck: How many, how many fake games have we detected(00:13:27) - How Much Contact Do You Have With Regulators?(00:15:07) - Chemical suppliers vs operators(00:15:58) - James Jackson(00:18:16) - On the Certification Mark,(00:22:50) - Have We Seen Any Revenue Leakage From Studios?(00:24:21) - Are Pirated Games Being Accredited?(00:25:36) - Can it be used the other way around by regulators to enforce against(00:30:42) - Talking to players on the phone(00:32:34) - He Man vs Thundercats(00:34:51) - The Dissection Of The Podcast

It is episode 40. Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin mark the "Ruby anniversary" of Right to the Source, as Ed puts it, with a data-heavy episode covering the World Cup, UK politics and Evolution's turbulent few weeks. The pair also dive into the age-old Ronaldo versus Messi debate. World Cup driving a surge in handle Handle data across multiple markets shows the World Cup is driving serious volume. Ed takes Robin through New York, Sweden and Taiwan. One market literally doubled its sports betting handle in a single month during the tournament. Even so, the pair stress that the opportunity should be viewed as a customer acquisition tool rather than a pure margin play. Spotlight on the UK As a new prime minister comes into office, Ed and Robin discuss the fiscal position they will inherit. With income tax and employee national insurance off the table, Ed flags FOBTs as a likely easy target for tax rises. He thinks the industry, in particular the traditional retail book, should be watching closely. As Nicole Macedo reported, Evolution agreed a €4.75m regulatory settlement with the UK Gambling Commission after the regulator found its content on unlicensed sites. A follow up from the commission revealed it had gone as far as considering suspending Evolution's licence entirely, citing serious weaknesses in its anti-money laundering controls before the two sides reached the swift settlement. Separately, Evolution's $85m acquisition of Galaxy Gaming appears to have collapsed after two years of work. Tune in to hear what Robin makes of it. If you have enjoyed the series, feel free to show your appreciation as it hits the 40th episode mark. Chapters (00:00:10) - Bob Mortimer on the World Cup(00:05:32) - In the Elevator With Rich People(00:07:35) - World Cup Wagering: Up 48% Year on Year(00:08:57) - Sportsbooks: World Cup and prediction markets(00:11:08) - The Ben with the Bin in His Head(00:12:42) - Lawrence Fox on the Burnham policy(00:15:49) - Adam Levine on Evolution(00:17:12) - Evolution Games settles gambling commission case over unlicensed sites(00:19:18) - Evolution Gaming's Q2H1 earnings,(00:20:38) - On the Playtech deal(00:24:02) - Netflix: 90 Minutes Is Too Long(00:26:48) - UK slot stakes increase from 1 to 2 pounds(00:29:45) - "The World Cup is worth 1%"(00:36:34) - Ronaldo vs Messi: Who Is the Greatest Footballer of All(00:41:09) - Spain vs Argentina

Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin return after iGB L!VE to share some interesting numbers on the World Cup and Europe, starting with a Dutch gambling tax hike that has missed its target by some distance. From there, the pair also cover the latest updates on Ireland's new licensing regime. Prediction market activity during the World Cup H2 has been tracking prediction market activity throughout the tournament. By volume, DR Congo was the most backed country not to win the World Cup, while France, Spain and Portugal led the standings for teams most backed to win. There was also a very interesting finding in terms of the matches with the highest losing trades. Tune in to find out what the matches are. You will be surprised by their commonality, which in fact favours traditional sportsbooks the most. Yet, prediction markets appear to have been caught out by them this time. Dutch gambling tax hike reality check The Netherlands raised its gambling tax in two phases, from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and then to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Treasury predicted these hikes would generate an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026.  The actual numbers came in far lower: just €2 million extra in 2025, with 2026 estimated at €57 million. Ed is careful to note it is not just the tax rate to blame. New deposit limits, advertising curbs and the fading of the post-Euro 2024 revenue spike all played a role in shrinking the taxable base.  What is harder to ignore is the impact on land-based venues, with casino and gaming hall visits down around 11% year on year and several operators citing the tax hike as a factor in closures. The pair hint that tax hikes do not always work as governments expect, and the UK should take note. While in Europe, the pair also discuss the new licensing regime under GRAI in Ireland, which took effect on 1 July. Currently 89% of online betting is onshore but only 35% of the total market, because all iGaming remains offshore and unregulated.  Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have already gone live to support operators through the transition. Check out the episode to find out H2's estimates of what the market could be worth as regulation extends further. iGB L!VE highlight: Africa Summit Robin's highlight from the show was the Africa Summit, which brought together regulators from across the continent, including Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, alongside industry bodies such as the African Tax Administration Forum. The event coincided with a high-level session hosted by the African iGaming Alliance, where regulators discussed sustainable taxation, channelisation and player protection, and helped advance plans for a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week. Ed, who moderated a tax panel at the summit, raises a pointed question before signing off: if operators in some markets quietly absorb or avoid punitive tax rates, can the industry still credibly argue against high taxation elsewhere? Check out the full Right to the Source series for data and insights.

Right to the Source welcomes its first guest in a while this week. Dan Phillips, CEO and Founder of NEL Advisory, joins Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin ahead of iGB L!VE to discuss product innovation and the recurrent grey market. Product innovation: evolution or illusion? Before diving into the industry talk, Dan shares what it was like starting out as a dealer at a basement casino in Soho in 1996. Thirty years on, he brings a seasoned perspective to one of the episode's central questions: has the industry actually innovated? Ed thinks not. Bet builders are just multiples repackaged, prediction markets are regulatory arbitrage, and live casino has been around forever. Robin argues that real innovation is iterative problem-solving rather than headline-grabbing product launches.  Dan lands somewhere in the middle: the industry is better at merging concepts than creating new ones. You cannot uninvent something, so the only sensible move is to embrace it. Where all three find common ground is on AI. Dan's view is that its real value lies in true personalisation, not in Amazon-style recommendations. Ed agrees the potential is there, having watched the industry talk about personalisation for 15 years without delivering it.  The grey market debate Do operators that built their businesses in unregulated markets deserve credit for eventually going legit? Ed, Robin and Dan all land in different places on this one. Tune in to find out where each of them stands, and the hint is that nobody fully agrees. Getting ready for iGB L!VE What is Open Space? As part of iGB Executive, the Open Space session at iGB L!VE brings operators, suppliers and product leaders into the same room for something deliberately different from a standard panel.  Taking place on Wednesday, 1 July, from 2:30pm to 4:00pm in the South Galleries at ExCeL London, the format is audience-led and runs under Chatham House rules - meaning no recording, no report, just open conversation. Dan will be facilitating, moving between breakout tables and prodding the debate where needed. Around 70 people have signed up, and when asked in advance what they wanted to discuss, 36% said AI, 12% customer engagement and retention and 11% payments.  The session will also feature live voting and open idea sharing. As Dan puts it, the point is to have conversations that simply do not happen on panels. Where to find your RTTS hosts Ed will be on the taxation and channelisation panel at 2:00pm on Wednesday 1 July as part of the Africa Summit, and on the prediction markets and World Cup panel at 2:00pm on Thursday 2 July.  Robin will be hosting a fireside chat at the Startup Accelerator on 30 June and MCing the Africa Summit on 1 July. If you see any of them, do go and say hello. If you want to revisit any previous episodes before the show, the full Right to the Source series is right here. See you at the show! Chapters (00:00:10) - Lewis and Clark(00:01:27) - Guests On The Podcast(00:02:36) - Dan Phillips on the Gambling Industry(00:03:30) - How to Get Out Of The Gambling Industry(00:08:23) - Coral's CEO on product innovation(00:09:34) - On Innovation in the Casino Industry(00:14:52) - Robin Quirk on IGB Live(00:16:19) - Robin Williams on Open Space(00:22:32) - Will AI Take Over the Slot Industry?(00:30:04) - Amazon Prime Film Review: Balls Up(00:30:52) - Mark Wahlberg on His Classics(00:32:38) - Mark Wahlberg on His Guest(00:33:42) - Have We Discovered a Regulated Market?(00:38:18) - Black Market and the Fair Play(00:45:10) - Mark Wahlberg On His Best 3 Movies(00:47:10) - IGB Live: Africa Panel and More

With the World Cup already underway, Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin are back with a data-packed episode covering H2's betting estimates for the tournament, the UAE's new regulatory CEO and what Finland's market opening really looks like in numbers. The big numbers behind World Cup betting H2 Gambling Capital estimates $60 billion will be wagered through legal sportsbooks globally at this year's World Cup, which is a 71% increase on the 2022 tournament.  Among the three host nations, the US leads with $2.9 billion while Mexico is close behind at $2.5 billion. Tune in to find out what H2 estimates for a football-mad nation like Brazil. In addition, Ed notes that operators should treat the World Cup as a customer acquisition opportunity rather than a pure revenue play. With 104 matches, up from 64 in 2022, margin uncertainty on results makes the revenue picture harder to call. Cautiously positive in both the UAE and Finland? As Robin reported, the GCGRA has appointed Ciarán Carruthers as its new CEO, replacing Kevin Mullally, who left in November last year. Carruthers brings significant Asian gaming experience from Galaxy, Sands China and Wynn Macau. Most recently, he steered Crown Resorts through its AML and responsible gambling remediation in Australia.  Robin finds the appointment genuinely compelling in view of the pro-industry approach and real scope for land-based growth. Ed is more sceptical, arguing that the UAE online market will be largely irrelevant to most of the industry. Listen in to hear where they land. In Finland, the number of companies which have applied for licences ahead of the market opening is far too many, according to the pair.  H2 estimates the licensed online market will reach $1.4 to $1.5 billion by 2028, up from $275 million now. Yet Ed raises questions about the "bad actor" provisions and what happens to operators currently targeting the market.  Ed closes with a pointed observation on the European Commission levy proposal: Is this what happens when AI-scraped data finds its way into policy? Check out the full Right to the Source series for more iGaming insights. Chapters (00:00:10) - The Yogi Bear(00:01:08) - Alex Pratt on Podcasts(00:06:58) - How much will the World Cup Betting be?(00:12:37) - Brazil Sports Betting(00:14:53) - UAE Gambling Regulator's new CEO(00:20:11) - vs the online marine industry(00:21:59) - Finnish regulator: 50 companies have now applied for licenses(00:26:25) - Sausage in New Zealand(00:30:50) - 99 Red Balloons(00:32:51) - Just Data, especially being used for policy(00:34:31) - Yogi Bear and Boo Boo

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are back with a round-the-world showcase in this episode, taking in three of the biggest stories in the industry: a market reshuffle in Mexico, Austria's long-awaited monopoly shake-up and the implications of the Caesars acquisition. Mexico's gambling market at a crossroads As the second biggest LatAm market after Brazil, Mexico has grown at a fast pace, and 80% of the market is onshore. However, a new 50% GGR tax rate and the licence revocation of Bet365 and Betano's licensing partner may now disrupt that growth.  H2 estimates Mexico's World Cup co-hosting role could generate around $2.5 billion in extra sportsbook turnover. Whether that offsets the drag from the tax hike remains to be seen. Austria iGaming: ending monopolies becoming the trend? Austria's Ministry of Finance has leaked a draft bill to end Win2day's decades-long online gambling monopoly and open the market to multiple operators for the first time. As Imogen Goodman reports, the Finance Ministry itself acknowledges the monopoly model has become increasingly difficult to enforce in the digital age. The reform could deliver a significant fiscal windfall, especially as Austria faces pressure to reduce its budget deficit. The pair welcome the direction of travel but raise serious concerns about what is on the table, for example, deposit limits of €250 per week for under-26s, a €2 maximum stake per spin and back taxes owed on outstanding Austrian court rulings.  Ed's early verdict is clear: with restrictions like these, the channelisation rate could end up closer to that of the Netherlands than anyone would like. As the Dutch channelisation slipped below 50% in the first half of 2025 due to strict deposit limits, Austria has been warned. What does it mean for the Caesars acquisition? As iGB reported, Tilman Fertitta recently agreed a $5.7 billion deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment. Ed's key point is that the Caesars digital business is strategically valuable not just as a revenue line but also as a player data tool for cross-selling to land-based properties. Spinning it off risks destroying that value entirely. Tune in to hear the pair's full verdict. Finally, we want to thank everyone who has been listening and getting in touch. Every message means more than you think. Check out the full Right to the Source series for more iGaming insights. Chapters (00:00:00) - Ren and Stimpy(00:02:17) - Correction: Emaciated Is Not Egregiated(00:03:15) - Celtic vs Hearts(00:05:19) - Sports Talk(00:08:35) - Mexico(00:15:28) - Gambling regulation in Mexico, Spain(00:17:11) - Austria to liberalize online gambling(00:21:45) - What Is The Age You Can Change Your Name in the UK?(00:23:12) - Austria's gambling restrictions(00:28:25) - People Talk About Caesar Salad(00:29:30) - Norway's online casino scandal(00:31:44) - Caesars Entertainment spin-off: EWTN interview(00:35:24) - Ren and Stimpy: Who Knows That?

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison walk us through some of the key industry topics in the latest episode of Right to the Source. The UK takes centre stage, with a detour around the world for good measure. The prize draw opportunity and the RTP debate The pair touch on Portugal's new centralised self-exclusion system and Australia's gambling ad reforms before Robin introduces something genuinely new to the series: the UK prize draw market.  According to Robin, 44% of operators were incorporated after 2020. At £1.3 billion in annual player spend and 7.4 million active players, it is a young and largely unregulated sector operating outside Gambling Commission oversight.  As Nicole Macedo recently reported, with 88% of prize draw participants also engaging in commercial gambling, the cross-sell opportunity is hard to ignore. However, Ed is sceptical that it is a meaningful opportunity for real-money gaming operators, as he thinks the targeted players for prize draws are different. On the other hand, the remote gaming duty hike in the UK is pushing operators to lower slot RTPs. Both Ed and Robin land on the same conclusion: it is probably a bad thing for operators and players alike.  Ed draws on a conversation from the Big Daddy Gaming episode earlier in the year. Operators have spent years calibrating RTP to an optimal level. If it were simply a case of cutting it to make more money, they would have done it already.  Ed's bigger concern, though, is what this means for the industry's credibility. If the market keeps growing despite the tax hike, the government will simply conclude the industry was crying wolf.  Beyond the UK: prediction markets and Sportradar There are a few stories to keep the prediction market lively. The pair cover some recent developments regarding Brazil, the NCAA and DraftKings. Check out the prediction market roundup from iGB to keep up with the latest developments. The episode finishes with the Sportradar short-selling report. Ed raises a pointed question about whether commercial data providers should also serve as integrity monitors. Tune in to hear Ed's verdict! Chapters (00:00:10) - Ed Birkin(00:03:12) - Sports Betting in Brazil(00:09:01) - Australia gambling ad reforms(00:14:07) - Vikehouse's fight for a monopoly in Finland(00:16:28) - The prize draw market in the UK(00:18:04) - Omaze's Adverts(00:18:39) - Prize draws(00:24:49) - RTP(00:31:14) - Will the RTP increase the attractiveness of slots on the illegal market(00:34:57) - Meta Adblocking Illegal Gambling(00:39:45) - Big Picture: Short Selling, Sport Radar,

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison covered a few key industry topics this week, taking a closer look at the recent ECJ development and the March Madness betting market. The pair begin with the recent ECJ opinion around German player-loss cases, which they suggest offers limited clarity for the wider industry. The opinion appears to support the right of member states to enforce local gambling licensing regimes, as long as those rules comply with EU law. However, it still leaves the biggest questions unanswered. March Madness and the real size of the betting market According to Ed, March Madness is the single most-bet tournament in the world. H2 estimates that the legal US sportsbook handle for the men’s and women’s tournaments combined will reach $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year. In addition, Ed estimates prediction markets could generate around $1.6 billion in volume on the tournament, which he translates to roughly $530 million in handle equivalent. The amount directly competing with regulated sportsbooks in states where sports betting is already legal is much smaller, at around $135 million to $150 million. Are prediction markets being overstated? From the discussion, prediction markets are far from the only factor that could affect sportsbook performance. Other pressures, such as promotional pullbacks, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviour, may have a greater impact on handle. The pair conclude by widening the discussion around prediction markets more broadly. Robin points to recent developments in places such as Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands, while Ed remains firmly sceptical about their long-term prospects. Chapters (00:00:00) - Chris Rock: The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air(00:04:21) - Uncle Phil on the Podcast(00:05:31) - Europe Court of Justice(00:07:16) - European court case on betting losses(00:13:13) - Unlicensed Betting in Malta(00:16:49) - Nothing but an empty shell(00:17:38) - March Madness(00:20:51) - March Madness: Will it affect sports books?(00:25:38) - What's driving down sports bet handle?(00:30:39) - Governor of Utah on Political Correctness(00:36:02) - Kings Casino: Overhyped, but that's OK(00:40:04) - John Terry's NFTs(00:43:02) - Snoop Dogg Bought His NFT