Prediction Markets Report

DC Event:  https://luma.com/07ydb6gl Cboe is bringing its derivatives expertise to prediction markets. Joe Green, Head of Prediction Markets at Cboe Global Markets, joins to discuss contracts on the S&P 500, corporate KPI contracts, and how these products could serve retail and institutional investors. We also discuss SEC oversight and the importance of liquidity and capital efficiency. 

Trading in prediction markets raises many significant legal issues. Renato Mariotti, partner at Paul Hastings and former federal prosecutor, joins to discuss insider trading and manipulation, trading with AI agents, and trading other people’s money. We also cover recent CFTC actions and how those actions will impact pending litigation.

The infrastructure behind prediction markets is growing. Oscar Levy, co-founder of River Markets, joins to discuss how he is building a prime broker for prediction markets. We also discuss market fragmentation, the role of intermediaries, and the advantages of trading event contracts.

Perpetuals are onshore and gaining traction. Jeff Bandman, CEO of Kalshi Prime, joins to discuss how perpetuals work, the expanding range of underlying assets, and the potential introduction of margin for prediction-market event contracts.

Prediction markets have created new challenges for companies, and employee trading is one issue compliance departments are facing right now. Steve Brown, Head of Business Development at StarCompliance, discusses how firms are approaching the challenge, including policies, pre-approval, and post-trade monitoring. He also discusses StarCompliance’s partnership with Kalshi and its software solution for monitoring employee prediction market trading.

NextPredict is the world’s largest prediction markets summit. Pierre Lindh, Co-Founder of NextPredict, joins to discuss the summit and its hedge with Kalshi and Susquehanna. He also explains why he believes the insurance industry will be the future battleground for prediction markets and discusses the tension between sports betting and prediction markets.

In this episode, Matt Vegh speaks with Josh Sterling, who represents Kalshi in various matters.The conversation covers the core legal issues, what could come next, and, of course, elephants, mice, and ducks. If you have been following the litigation, you know why these animals make an appearance. If not, listen to the episode to find out.Given the rapid developments, it is important to note that this episode was recorded on September 8.

Matt Vegh speaks with Cyrus Chan, Co-Founder and CEO of Saperity. Saperity is a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) helping clients use prediction markets for risk management. Topics include:1. Using prediction market data to inform business decisions.2. Executing trades on prediction markets to hedge risk.3. How block trades work and provide liquidity beyond what appears on screen.

In this episode, Matt Vegh speaks with Andy Ross, Head of Institutional at Kalshi.Topics include:Kalshi’s strategy for growing institutional adoption of prediction markets.The value of the data generated by prediction markets.Kalshi’s expansion into perpetuals and how it fits into the company’s broader strategy.The hurdles that remain to greater institutional adoption of prediction markets.

John Conlon joins to discuss 1. The story behind the first event contract block trade brokered by Greenlight Commodities 2. Why event contracts offer a unique hedging tool for institutions 3. What is needed for greater institutional adoption