LiveSquawk Market Talk

Democrats stormed both chambers in a historic midterm sweep, but Ryan Littlestone of Forex Analytics and macro strategist Michael Brown argue the market is badly mispricing what a 56-seat Senate majority actually means when Trump still holds the veto pen — and the Iran war risk hasn't gone anywhere.Ryan Littlestone, Forex AnalyticsX: https://x.com/forexanalytixLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-littlestone-ba50a150Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/forex-analyst.bsky.socialWebsite: https://www.forexanalytix.comMichael BrownX: https://x.com/MrMBrownLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-r-brownTry our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps:01:38 Democrats sweep the midterms 06:22 Strong payrolls and a December Fed hike 12:21 Growth without the war and the UK budget 15:35 Why did the Bank of England hike? 24:26 Week ahead: China CPI and the yuan 26:22 UK GDP and its lopsided growth 29:47 Eurozone GDP, French spreads and Spain 33:27 Japan GDP and US CPI 37:11 Rate cuts in 2027 and wrap-up

Joseph Choi of Curve Advisor and Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research break down what a widely expected October hold really signals ahead of the 1400 ET decision — and why the dissent count from Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan could matter less than what Walsh does at the podium. With December priced at 84% and over three hikes still in the market, the gap between the Fed chair and his own committee is becoming impossible to ignore.Joseph Choi, Curve AdvisorX: https://x.com/CurveAdvisorLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/all/?keywords=Curve%20AdvisorDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research LLCX: https://x.com/DiMartinoBoothLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dimartinoboothWebsite: https://quillintelligence.com/Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawkTimestamps:⁠⁠02:54 Dissents, rate pricing and Warsh's tone 09:12 Inflation breadth, oil and expectations 13:43 Credit stress and high-end spending 15:30 Questions for Warsh's press conference 22:00 A rift inside the FOMC 24:17 Fed credibility and the blue wave risk 27:14 Midterms, Iran and the oil incentive

From the RBNZ's surprise hold rattling the Kiwi to the Bank of Canada on a knife edge, Guenter Grimm maps out what happens to FX and risk assets if central banks blink — and why a dovish pivot now could unleash the very inflationary wave policymakers are trying to suppress.Eric CulpX: https://x.com/EricCulpLSGuenter GrimmLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guenter-grimm Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps:03:00 Hold now, December hike next 08:08 Second-round effects and French yields 10:29 What to expect from Lagarde's press conference 15:09 RBNZ, Bank of Canada and the Fed 17:25 Eurozone growth into 2027 20:53 Oil for longer and the bond outlook 22:27 UK budget and wrap-up

Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins LiveSquawk with Trump's net approval sitting near minus twenty-two to minus twenty-three nationally — more than double the drag he faced heading into the 2018 midterms. With the House looking very likely to flip, Kondik breaks down exactly why Republicans are fighting uphill even in states Trump won by double digits.Kyle Kondik, Sabato's Crystal BallX: https://x.com/kkondikWebsite: https://www.kylekondik.com/aboutTry our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps:05:10 Trump's approval and the odds for Congress 08:09 Vance and the bench behind Trump 10:43 Early voting: what it signals 13:27 Key Senate races and the polls 17:57 Do the midterms predict 2028? 19:33 Market scenarios under a Democratic Congress 23:00 Regulation, Trump's power and foreign policy 27:43 What investors should watch, wrap-up

85% beat rates and 29% blended earnings growth sound like a victory lap — but Christine Short of Wall Street Horizon flags a troubling parallel to Q3 2021, the last time revision momentum stalled before a bear market. Gregoire Dupont adds the trader's reality check: strip out ten names and the S&P's growth story looks very different.Christine Short, Wall Street HorizonsX: https://x.com/ChristineLShortLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-short-b0034b37/Website: https://wallstreethorizon.com/Gregoire DupontX: https://x.com/GregoireDupLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregoire-dupont-ab3885/Website: https://duponttrading.com/Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps:03:00 Q3 so far and the bank results 07:27 Slowing revisions and the 2021 parallel 10:51 Hyperscaler capex and Meta's early report 17:12 CoreWeave and neocloud debt stress 21:14 Higher rates, housing and Q4 guidance 25:07 Small caps and the financing squeeze 29:34 Midterms and the market 34:07 AI regulation and wrap-up

Audy of Credo V makes the case that quantum computing timelines are shrinking faster than markets appreciate — and that institutional allocators are already pulling back from Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure because of it.Audy (Credo), Credo VX: https://x.com/credo__vWebsite: https://www.credo-v.comTry our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps:02:12 Monthly recap: ETF flows, yields and the Fed 05:00 The rally and MSCI dropping MicroStrategy 07:09 BitMine and the 5% ETH target11:07 Quantum risk and Bitcoin's upgrade path 18:11 Midterms and what they mean for crypto

Hot CPI and PPI prints failed to break bonds — and Kevin Muir of the Macro Tourist thinks he knows why. With The Economist cover curse and AI bubble mechanics in play, Muir makes a provocative case that the long end may already be at its low, while Sam Cutler of 333 Capital warns that bond buyers are hedging financing stress, not betting on disinflation.Kevin Muir, Macro TouristX: https://x.com/kevinmuirLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-muir-603a0435/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/kevinmuir.bsky.socialWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSam CutlerX: https://x.com/search4yield3 Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps:02:20 Hot US CPI, the bond rally and the AI trade 10:00 IMF forecasts and the US AI bubble risk 13:50 UK GDP, Huw Pill and four hikes priced in 21:47 RBA stays hawkish, China's pull on Australia 24:07 Week ahead: global PMIs and soft data 27:36 China Q3 GDP and the 2027 stimulus case 32:16 Canada CPI and the Bank of Canada 35:45 UK inflation and the Bank of England 38:14 Japan CPI, the BoJ and the yen 42:20 Midterms: why volatility looks cheap

The FOMC minutes showed almost unanimous concern over upside inflation risks — yet rate hike expectations are falling. Ryan Littlestone of Forex Analytics breaks down what that contradiction means for markets and why the Fed's credibility could soon be back in the crosshairs with an Iran-driven energy shock in the mix.Ryan Littlestone, Forex AnalyticsX: https://x.com/forexanalytixLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-littlestone-ba50a150Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/forex-analyst.bsky.socialWebsite: https://www.forexanalytix.comTry our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawkTimestamps:00:00 Intro 01:53 FOMC minutes and Fed speakers 08:10 ECB accounts and second-round effects 12:47 French debt and Le Pen's budget plan 17:33 Spain snap election and Brazil's first round 19:14 Japan wages, Canada jobs and the next hikes 23:56 Oil, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz 26:30 Week ahead: US September CPI 29:29 UK GDP and the energy squeeze 32:31 China inflation and the yuan 35:13 US retail sales and wrap-up

NFP Miss and the Fed's Fractured Voice: October Hike Bets Crumble A headline NFP print of just 29,000 sends October Fed hike odds to 20% — but Jamie Dutta of Vantage and strategist Guenter Grimm argue the real story is in the wage data, the three-sector jobs market, and whether a new Fed chair can silence a deeply divided committee.Jamie Dutta, VantageX: https://x.com/vantagemktsLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-dutta-6487a818Website: https://www.vantagemarkets.comGuenter GrimmLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guenter-grimm/Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and guests02:08 US payrolls miss: 29K vs 80K expected04:40 Fed outlook: core PCE, Fed speakers and October hike odds12:11 Eurozone inflation at 3.8% and the ECB17:16 European bond sell-off: France, Germany and safe havens21:51 RBA hikes again, the case for the Aussie24:46 G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil and diesel27:32 France: spreads, the May election and the ECB32:32 Week ahead: FOMC minutes, German data, Brazil election35:48 Wrap-up

Gregoire Dupont of Dupont Trading joins to break down a week dominated by SNB, Norges Bank, and Riksbank decisions — and why the collective hawkish drift across central banks signals something more structural than a one-off energy shock.Follow Gregoire on X: https://x.com/GregoireDup LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregoire-dupont-ab3885Website: https://duponttrading.com Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠