HotelAnalystPodcast9Aug2024

Experiential is the latest travel fad, or maybe it’s a trend. Marriott has marched in and signed up two new brands, as glamping becomes the latest must-have for the big brand groups. In select service, northern European markets look tough, but private equity investors are lining up to buy into Spain. For those in the UK, such at Travelodge, employment cost rises are a big hit. And there’s a feeling abroad that deal volume is rising, as sellers temper their pricing expectations, while buyers wrestle with continuing high debt costs.

A battle looms in alternative accommodation, as Expedia and Booking build their listings towards the scale of Airbnb, while still spending billions with Google. There's consolidation among the third party hotel managers, as they realise they need scale to drive their business forward. And the extended stay segment pushes forth once more, with the Ascott pushing its Quest brand into China, alongside local partner Jin Jiang.

Accor's firing on all cylinders, but its progress is slightly hobbled by its property owning affiliate AccorInvest, which needs to sell down properties - sometimes losing Accor the operational gig. Hyatt, meanwhile, continues to judiciously deploy cash, as it chooses its own path for growth. And, as it appears finance for hotel deals is getting easier, who are the winners?

The Hilton juggernaut accelerates its growth, leading the pack with NUG. Wyndham looks to ancillary income growth, after reorganising its tech stack. At Pandox, the deals stalemate is over, as it buys in London and Edinburgh, with more to come. While Dalata has set out its plans for European growth.

The mood of the market is lifting, as investor optimism rises - and, barring international tensions, local economic conditions are looking benign for the hotel sector. Technology remains a complex, yet valuable support for the hotel sector - but what impact will AI have on the big players? And Indian group Oyo confuses us once more with another cross-court volley - this time buying US economy hotel chain Motel 6.

More and more conversions are making their way into hotel brand pipelines. While converting other hotels to your brand is easy, converting from offices can be much harder. Why investors are liking the look of adjacent spaces of buildings with beds, notably build to rent in the UK. And the power of events, both sporting and entertainment, to drive hotel performance.

A refinancing at PPHE points to the end of cheap debt - but what is the right long term level for interest rates? In the US, regulators are bearing down on the airlines and loyalty programmes. Such attention can often be unwelcome...And the latest moves in Greece and Indonesia, as well visited tourist destinations work out how to manage the perceived curse of over tourism.

Holiday packages are becoming more popular once more, and that could put renewed pressure on hoteliers, as TUI and its peers increase their market power. The investment market is starting to warm up, with Pandox clocking up two acquisitions as sellers and buyers come to agreement on pricing. And more of Blackstone's private equity funds are heading into not just hotels, but hotel tech, as they acquire US software platform M3.

On the ropes aparthotel group Sonder finds a lifeline in a deal with Marriott - will this help it to profit? And Hyatt joins the big league with a lifestyle division, as it buys the Standard International brands and, with them, the creative team behind them. Plus, normalisation is here as hotel groups face a quarter of softening demand, and therefore the graphs start to slip downward. But as ever, while there are losers, we also spot some winners.

It’s second quarter results season, so we mull over the results - weaker in China and the US, holding up elsewhere. Plus, how the different CEOs presented their outlooks, as many trimmed their expectations for the full year. Who has the best momentum? And, we told you so, business travel continues to improve in volume, returning close to pre-pandemic levels.