Cliodynamics Of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites And The Path Of Political Disintegration | Hoover Institution

Thursday, October 24, 2024, from 10:00 - 11:00 am PT Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions is proud to announce a new webinar series called "Reimagining American Institutions." The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions webinar series features speakers who are developing innovative ideas, conducting groundbreaking research, and taking important actions to improve trust and efficacy in American institutions. Speaker expertise and topics span governmental institutions, civic organizations and practice, and the role of public opinion and culture in shaping our democracy. The webinar series builds awareness about how we can individually and collectively revitalize American institutions to ensure our country’s democracy delivers on its promise. In part two of our series on presidential transitions, Stephen Hadley, national security advisor, speaks with Condoleezza Rice, director of the Hoover Institution and national security advisor and secretary of state, about how an effective changing of the guard is critical to national security. Hadley will highlight advice from Hand-Off, an edited volume of thirty declassified National Security Council memoranda prepared by experts to smooth the transition between the Bush and Obama administrations. This conversation will focus on what must happen in the upcoming transition to ensure the United States is kept secure from national security threats posed by China, Russia, the Middle East, terrorism, proliferation, cybersecurity pandemics, and climate change—concerns that dominate America’s national security and foreign policy.

The Federalist Papers, a series of essays written in the late 18th century, advocated for the ratification of the U.S. Constitution and promoted the idea of a nation designed by intent rather than by accident.  On Tuesday, September 24th, 2024 at 12:00 PM PT, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence celebrated the launch of the Digitalist Papers, which seek to inspire a new era of governance, informed by the transformative power of technology to address the significant challenges and opportunities posed by AI and other digital technologies.  This event was held at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, featuring presentations and dynamic discussions with the authors—experts in economics, law, technology, management, and political science—who have contributed essays to this newly edited volume. These essays explore how the intersection of technology with each of these fields might lead to better governance. By assembling these diverse voices and releasing these essays ahead of the November election, we aimed to shift the conversation toward designing a more transparent and accountable system of governance. Our goal is to impact the development and integration of digital technologies and transform social structures for the digital age. Join us as we embark on this pivotal journey to redefine the future of governance. This was an in-person event open to the public. Authors include: John H. Cochrane (Stanford), “AI, Society, and Democracy: Just Relax” Sarah Friar (OpenAI) and Laura Bisesto (OpenAI), “The Potential for AI to Restore Local Community Connectedness, the Bedrock of a Healthy Democracy” Mona Hamdy (Anomaly and Harvard University), Johnnie Moore (JDA Worldwide and The Congress of Christian Leaders), and E. Glen Weyl (Plural Technology Collaboratory), “Techno-ideologies of the Twenty-first Century” Reid Hoffman (Greylock) and Greg Beato, “Informational GPS” Lawrence Lessig (Harvard), “Protected Democracy” James Manyika (Google and Alphabet), “Getting AI Right: A 2050 Thought Experiment” Jennifer Pahlka (Niskanen Center and the Federation of American Scientists), “AI Meets the Cascade of Rigidity” Nathaniel Persily (Stanford), “Misunderstanding AI’s Democracy Problem” Eric Schmidt (Former CEO and Chairman of Google), “Democracy 2.0” Divya Siddarth (Collective Intelligence Project), Saffron Huang (Collective Intelligence Project), Audrey Tang (Collective Intelligence Project), “A Vision of Democratic AI” Lily L. Tsai (MIT) and Alex Pentland (Stanford), “Rediscovering the Pleasures of Pluralism: The Potential of Digitally Mediated Civic Engagement” Eugene Volokh (Stanford and UCLA), “Generative AI and Political Power”

Tuesday, October 8, 2024 Hoover Institution, Stanford University The Hoover Institution's Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative presents To War or Not to War: Vietnam and the Sigma Wargames on Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 2:00PM PT. In 1964, America was slowly marching towards war in Vietnam. But what if that war could have been fought differently or avoided altogether? The Sigma Games, a series of politico-military wargames run by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff in the 1960s, sought to understand the unfolding conflict in Southeast Asia. These games, which involved top figures from the Johnson Administration—including National Security Adviser McGeorge Bundy, Air Force General Curtis LeMay, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Earle Wheeler—offer a chillingly accurate forecast of the war's potential trajectory.  Choose your character for an immersive experience. See the game unfold through the eyes of pivotal figures such as John McCone, Curtis LeMay, Earle Wheeler, and McGeorge Bundy in this interactive event. This event introduces the games and turns to a panel of historians to explore the Sigma Wargames, their prescient warnings, and why these early insights failed to shape the Johnson Administration’s decision-making, ultimately leading to one of America’s most costly conflicts.  The conversation, while a look into a key set of games at a historical moment in American foreign policy, says something more broadly at the impact of wargames on US foreign and defense policy as well as how influence is created (and hijacked) within strategic decision making. ​PANELISTS H.R. McMaster is the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is also the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and lecturer at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business.  McMaster holds a PhD in military history from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He was an assistant professor of history at the US Military Academy. He is author of the bestselling books Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World and Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Lies that Led to Vietnam. In August 2024, McMaster released his most recent book, At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House. His many essays, articles, and book reviews on leadership, history, and the future of warfare have appeared in The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, National Review, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Times. McMaster is the host of Battlegrounds: Vital Perspectives on Today’s Challenges and is a regular on GoodFellows, both produced by the Hoover Institution. He is a Distinguished University Fellow at Arizona State University. Mai Elliott is the author of The Sacred Willow: Four Generations in the Life of a Vietnamese Family, a personal and family memoir which was nominated for the Pulitzer Prize, and RAND in Southeast Asia: A History of the Vietnam War Era. She served as an advisor to Ken Burns and Lynn Novick for their PBS documentary on “The Vietnam War” and featured in seven of its ten episodes.  She recently contributed a chapter analyzing “The South Vietnamese Home Front” for the soon to be published Cambridge University Press 3-volume work on the Vietnam War.    Mai Elliott was born in Vietnam and grew up in Hanoi and Saigon.  She attended French schools in Vietnam and is a graduate of Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.  (She also writes under the name of Duong Van Mai Elliott).   Mark Moyar is the director of the Center for Military History and Strategy at Hillsdale College, where he also holds the William P. Harris Chair of Military History. During the Trump administration, Dr. Moyar was a political appointee at the U.S. Agency for International Development, serving as the Director of the Office of Civilian–Military Cooperation. Previously, he directed the Project on Military and Diplomatic History at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, and worked as a national security consultant. He has taught at the U.S. Marine Corps University, the Joint Special Operations University, and Texas A&M University. He is author of eight books, of which the most recent is Masters of Corruption: How the Federal Bureaucracy Sabotaged the Trump Presidency. He holds a B.A. summa cum laude from Harvard and a Ph.D. from Cambridge. MODERATOR Jacquelyn Schneider is the Hargrove Hoover Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Director of the Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, and an affiliate with Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. Her research focuses on the intersection of technology, national security, and political psychology with a special interest in cybersecurity, autonomous technologies, wargames, and Northeast Asia. She was previously an Assistant Professor at the Naval War College as well as a senior policy advisor to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. Dr. Schneider was a 2020 winner of the Perry World House-Foreign Affairs Emerging Scholars Policy Prize. She is also the recipient of a Minerva grant on autonomy (with co-PIs Michael Horowitz, Julia Macdonald, and Allen Dafoe), a University of Denver grant to study public responses to the use of drones (with Macdonald), and a grant from the Stanton Foundation to study networks, cyber, and nuclear stability through wargames. Dr. Schneider is an active member of the defense policy community with previous positions at the Center for a New American Security and the RAND Corporation. Before beginning her academic career, she spent six years as an Air Force officer in South Korea and Japan and is currently a reservist assigned to US Space Systems Command. She has a BA from Columbia University, MA from Arizona State University, and PhD from George Washington University.

Wednesday, October 9, 2024, 10:00 AM PT Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions is proud to announce a new webinar series called "Reimagining American Institutions." The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions webinar series features speakers who are developing innovative ideas, conducting groundbreaking research, and taking important actions to improve trust and efficacy in American institutions. Speaker expertise and topics span governmental institutions, civic organizations and practice, and the role of public opinion and culture in shaping our democracy. The webinar series builds awareness about how we can individually and collectively revitalize American institutions to ensure our country’s democracy delivers on its promise. The first session discusses Presidential Transitions with Brandice Canes-Wrone and Christopher P. Liddell on Wednesday, October 9, 2024, from 10:00 - 11:00 am PT. The only thing we know for certain about the White House in January 2025 is that there will be a transition. Designing and operating an effective White House transition is essential to the success of any presidency—and to democracy in the United States. Former White House deputy chief of staff Christopher Liddell, who has been involved in three presidential transitions, will discuss concrete nonpartisan steps and recommendations that would significantly improve how the White House functions and thus help rebuild trust in one of our most fundamental institutions, the presidency. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Brandice Canes-Wrone is the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. Canes-Wrone is the founding director of the Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions. Her current research focuses on representation and accountability, including projects on elections, campaign finance, and partisanship. She is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Academy of Sciences and Letters. Christopher P. Liddell has held senior roles in politics, the private sector, and philanthropy. He was White House Deputy Chief of Staff during the Trump Administration, and has been involved in three presidential transition cycles, including the White House operational head of the transition to the Biden Administration, where he played a key role. In the private sector, he has been Chief Financial Officer of several major companies, including Microsoft and General Motors.

A fireside chat with Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group on Tuesday, October 1, 2024 in Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution.  Condoleezza Rice, Director of the Hoover Institution and 66th US Secretary of State, Arun Majumdar, Jay Precourt Professor and Dean of SDSS, and Peter Blair Henry, Class of 1984 Senior Fellow at Hoover, conduct a fireside chat with President Banga on the importance of the World Bank leading "informed risk-taking" to catalyze blended (public and private) finance to fund investment in development and accelerate the energy transition.  

For the past 20 years, the Brazilian Supreme Court has become one of the most influential political players in the nation. In the name of democracy and the fight against misinformation, the Court has authorized a flurry of arrests and media bans that have garnered international attention. But Brazil is not alone. It belongs to a long list of nascent democracies around the world that are struggling to contend with ever-expanding judicial power. Using Brazil as our model, the question before us remains: how and why has this power arisen and what does it mean for the future of democracy? SPEAKER Chief Justice Luís Roberto Barroso studied Law at the State University of Rio de Janeiro in 1980 and received his LL.M. from Yale Law School in 1989. After receiving his LL.M., Justice Barroso was a Foreign Associate with the American law firm Arnold & Porter. He also holds a JSD degree from the State University of Rio de Janeiro (2008) and attended Harvard Law School’s Visiting Scholar program in 2011. Justice Barroso practiced as a private attorney in Brazil before being appointed to the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court in 2013. MODERATOR Professor Diego Werneck Arguelhes is an Associate Professor of Constitutional Law at Insper - Institute for Education and Research, São Paulo. He holds J.S.D. and LL.M. degrees from Yale Law School, and LL.B. and M.A. (Public Law) degrees from the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ).

The Hoover History Lab and Hoover Institution Library & Archives held a special hybrid event with Benjamin Nathans, introduced by Stephen Kotkin, as he launched his latest book To The Success of Our Hopeless Cause: The Many Lives of the Soviet Dissident Movement. Beginning in the 1960s, the Soviet Union was unexpectedly confronted by a dissident movement that captured the world’s imagination. Demanding that the Kremlin obey its own laws, an improbable band of Soviet citizens held unauthorized public gatherings, petitioned in support of arrested intellectuals, and circulated banned samizdat texts. Soviet authorities arrested dissidents, subjected them to bogus trials and vicious press campaigns, sentenced them to psychiatric hospitals and labor camps, sent them into exile—and transformed them into martyred heroes. Against all odds, the dissident movement undermined the Soviet system and unexpectedly hastened its collapse. Taking its title from a toast made at dissident gatherings, To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause (Princeton, 2024) is a definitive history of a remarkable group of people who helped change the twentieth century. Learn more about the book. This hybrid talk with Benjamin Nathans, with an introduction by Stephen Kotkin, took place in the Shultz Auditorium at the Hoover Institution on the Stanford University campus at 4:30 pm PT. ​About the Speakers Benjamin Nathans Alan Charles Kors Endowed Term Associate Professor of History, University of Pennsylvania Stephen Kotkin Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; Birkelund Professor in History and International Affairs emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Thursday, July 25, 2024 Hoover Institution | Stanford University Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann and Cambridge University’s Hugo Bromley join Hoover distinguished research fellow Glenn Tiffert for a conversation about an economic contingency plan for a Taiwan crisis, based on their new report, On Day One: An Economic Contingency for a Taiwan Crisis. FEATURING Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a nonresident research fellow at the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College. He is the author of One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World (Harvard University Press, 2021). Hugo Bromley is a research associate at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge and an affiliated research associate at Robinson College, Cambridge. He is a historian of British manufacturing and global economic statecraft in the early modern and modern periods. Dr. Bromley received his PhD from the University of Cambridge in 2022.

Thursday, July 25, 2024 Hoover Institution in DC. ​ The China's Global Sharp Power Project at the Hoover Institution held the launch of On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis on Thursday, July 25, 2024, from 5:30-7:30 PM ET. FEATURING Dr. Hugo Bromley is a research associate at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge and an affiliated research associate at Robinson College, Cambridge. He is a historian of British manufacturing and global economic statecraft in the early modern and modern periods. Dr. Bromley received his PhD from the University of Cambridge in 2022. Dr. Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a nonresident research fellow at the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College. He is the author of One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World (Harvard University Press, 2021). Dr. Rozlyn Engel is Managing Director of the Treasury, Economics, and Commerce Division at the MITRE Corporation, a nonprofit corporation that has worked in the public interest for more than six decades. In her role, she leads MITRE’s efforts to support the economic policy community while also working to strengthen the integration of economic considerations into national security strategy and policy development. Roz joined MITRE in August 2022, after a long career at the intersection of economics and national security. MODERATED BY Dr. Glenn Tiffert is a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China. He co-chairs Hoover’s project on China’s Global Sharp Power and directs its research portfolio.

Historian and author Luke Nichter will present on Watergate @ 50: Looking Back and Looking Forward at the next Hoover Institution Library & Archives hybrid event in the Un-Presidented Speaker Series. Fifty years is often sufficient for revisionism to reshape our understanding of even the most complex and controversial subjects. Not so with Watergate. Today the history we have is remarkably similar to what journalists wrote in the 1970s. However, there is hope for a breakthrough in the near future. Join us for this talk by Luke Nichter, American historian, professor of history and James H. Cavanaugh Endowed Chair in Presidential Studies at Chapman University, and author or editor of eight books, including most recently The Year That Broke Politics. With introduction by Victor Davis Hanson, the Martin and Illie Anderson senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. About the Speaker Luke A. Nichter is a Professor of History and James H. Cavanaugh Endowed Chair in Presidential Studies at Chapman University. His area of specialty is the Cold War, the modern presidency, and U.S. political and diplomatic history, with a focus on the "long 1960s" from John F. Kennedy through Watergate. He is a New York Times bestselling author or editor of eight books, including, most recently, The Year That Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968 (Yale University Press), which was chosen as a Best Book of 2023 by the Wall Street Journal. About the Un-Presidented Speaker SeriesThe Un-Presidented Speaker Series highlights conversations with historians and experts of the Nixon era, and is presented by the Hoover Institution Library & Archives in conjunction with the exhibition Un-Presidented: Watergate and Power in America now on view in the Lou Henry Hoover gallery of Hoover Tower at Stanford University.