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A document outlining the case for introducing new nuclear electricity generation in South Africa will be released by the Department of Electricity and Energy (DEE) for public comment this month as government seeks to lay the groundwork for another procurement process, following the failure of three previous attempts since 2008. Speaking at a nuclear and clean energy conference in Gauteng, Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa also confirmed he was planning to Gazette a Section 34 Ministerial determination between April and June, opening the way for the procurement of the 5.2 GW nuclear allocation included in the Integrated Resource Plan of 2025. Besides the public consultations, Ramokgopa said the determination would be published only once the department had received concurrence from both the National Energy Regulator of South Africa and the National Treasury. Deputy director-general for nuclear energy regulation Zizamele Mbambo confirmed that the DEE's 'Case for Nuclear' document had already been finalised and would be released for a 60-day comment period. A roadshow would also be undertaken in early 2027 to canvass further responses. Ramokgopa indicated that the document and public consultations were designed to address criticism over a lack of consultation during previous moves by government to initiate the procurement of new nuclear. In 2008, Eskom cancelled its Nuclear-1 procurement process for commercial reasons, while a later controversial move to procure 9.6 GW was permanently halted in 2017 after the Western Cape High Court ruled that the government's process was unlawful, largely owing to consultation deficiencies. Then in 2024, Ramokgopa formally withdrew a Gazetted notice opening the way for a 2.5 GW procurement process, amid renewed legal threats in relation to a lack of public consultation. The Minister said that the consultation process now being planned was part of an "ultra cautious" response to what he described as a "litigious environment" in relation to nuclear. While indicating that alternative views would be considered, the Minister nevertheless outlined his strong support for nuclear, before insisting: "We are proceeding with the nuclear build programme." He also argued that 10 GW of nuclear would be required to stimulate localisation and industrialisation, with the initial projects set to rely largely on established designs provided by foreign vendors. It was, thus, not immediately clear whether small modular reactor designs would be considered initially, but the Minister indicated that he saw a future role for the technology. These included designs that produced both electricity and industrial-process heat, such as the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, which was in the process of being transferred from Eskom to the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation, or Necsa. It was confirmed that any new nuclear power station would be owned and operated by State-owned utility Eskom, and that the department would employ the International Atomic Energy Agency's Milestones Approach for assessing Eskom's readiness to proceed. The Milestones Approach involved three progressive phases of development, assessing, first, whether a country was ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power programme, second, whether it was ready to invite bids, and third, whether it was ready to operate the first nuclear power plant. "The department will work with Eskom to assess financing structures against their effects on the tariff, Eskom's balance sheet, and any exposure assumed by the State," the Minister said, adding that the financing structure must support a build sequence that the country could sustain.

The estimated total value of all properties on the City of Cape Town's general valuation roll has jumped by 145% from R0.91-trillion rand in 2012 to R2.227-trillion in 2025. This is according to the Western Cape capital's fourth and latest Spatial Trends and Implementation Tracking Report. The report provides an overview of development and land-use patterns in Cape Town since 2012. Between 2012 and 2025, the strongest growth in property values occurred along Cape Town's coastal and high-amenity areas, particularly the Atlantic Seaboard, City Bowl, Southern Peninsula, Bloubergstrand, Somerset West and Durbanville. "Changes reflect spatially differentiated demand and supply, redevelopment and new development, including development on previously vacant land," notes the report. In contrast, the weakest growth was observed in Philippi and parts of the Cape Flats, including Mitchells Plain, while Khayelitsha recorded moderate to low levels of property value appreciation. This spatial pattern suggests that accessibility, coastal location, environmental amenities and market demand continue to be key drivers of property value growth across the metropolitan area, notes the report. The report explains that a number of internal and external hedonic pricing factors also play a role in determining property values. Internal factors relate to the characteristics of the property itself, including the land and buildings, such as size, appearance and finishes. External factors relate to the characteristics of the surrounding environment, such as crime rates, proximity to facilities and other locations (with both positive and negative implications), desirable locations (such as the coast and the mountain), and the value of other properties in the area. Booming Table Bay In the high-density Table Bay district, which includes the Atlantic Seaboard and central business district (CBD), the estimated total value of properties on the city's general valuation roll increased from R196-billion in 2012 to R464.1-billion in 2025. The Spatial Trends and Implementation Tracking Report states that property values have increased across the district, with the most significant increases in and around the CBD, extending into Woodstock and Salt River. The pattern of property-value change broadly aligns with areas designated as mixed-use intensification areas, development focus areas and new development areas. Redevelopment and property improvements in Woodstock and Salt River have contributed to some of the observed increase in property values. Spatially targeted mechanisms and tax incentives, including National Treasury's Urban Development Zone (UDZ), have also supported commercial and residential development in the inner city. Increases in property values in this district cannot, however, be attributed solely to policy or changes in density, notes the report. The locational qualities of the CBD and Atlantic Seaboard, including access to employment, sea and mountain views, heritage landscapes, and destinations such as the promenade, Table Mountain and the V&A Waterfront, also contribute to higher property values. "Higher-density development tends to occur in areas where higher property prices can be achieved," adds the report. "The district remains attractive for development and has generally experienced increasing property values, excluding properties within national park boundaries. "Property values are lower or have declined in some locations on the edges of established neighbourhoods or closer to industrial areas." 67% Jump in Informal Structures According to the latest Spatial Trends and Implementation Tracking Report, Cape Town's urban footprint, or built environment, grew by 4 056 ha between 2012 and 2024, with some 31% of land inside the urban development edge still undeveloped. Formal gross residential density has increased from eight dwellings a hectare in 2012, to 11 dwellings a hectare in 2025, however, the rate and form of densification vary betwee...

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says prevailing energy security concerns linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have placed renewables at the top of the policy agenda and will support a further acceleration in installations over the period to 2031. This growth will be supported by an acceleration in renewable capacity additions in emerging and developing economies, with installations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa forecast to almost triple in the 2026-to-2031 period compared with the previous six years. For the first time, the amount of renewables capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match the amount added in advanced economies. "The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said when releasing the report on November 6. "This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it." The IEA's 'Renewables 2026' report shows that China, where policy changes have slowed deployments, will remain the largest contributor to the global rise, but its share will decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the forecast period. India is emerging as the world's second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031. AFRICAN ADDITIONS The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa will add over 120 GW of renewable electricity capacity over 2026-2031, almost doubling today's installed base and marking a significant acceleration from 2020-2025. Growth is expected to be concentrated in South Africa and Nigeria, which together account for over 40% of the regional capacity expansion, followed by Kenya, Ethiopia and Angola. "The main structural shift in the region is the rapid expansion of distributed solar PV," the report states, indicating that utility-scale PV growth will remain concentrated in South Africa, which will account for 48% of the region's utility-scale additions. "Residential, commercial and off-grid systems account for nearly two-thirds of all new solar PV capacity over the forecast period, led by Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, but increasingly supported by broader uptake across smaller markets." Overall, the report forecasts that global renewables capacity will increase by almost 4 800 GW in the 2026-2031 period, 57% more than was added during the previous six-year period. Solar PV is set to account for more than three-quarters of this capacity growth, followed by onshore wind. Renewables are forecast to generate almost 45% of global electricity in 2031, up from 33% in 2025, with electricity generation from wind and solar PV combined more than doubling globally and reaching over 28% of total power generation by 2031. The IEA says the rapid expansion in variable renewables capacity will require stronger grids and interconnections, more affordable storage and dispatchable supply, as well as enhanced demand-side flexibility. CURTAILMENT RISES The report notes that technical curtailment of wind and solar PV output in key markets almost doubled in both 2024 and 2025. Curtailment reached almost 200 TWh last year and could exceed 800 TWh by 2031, the equivalent of almost 8% of total variable renewable generation. In addition, the number of hours of negative electricity prices has continued to rise across Europe, reducing revenues for merchant projects and projects operating under corporate power purchase agreements, and testing the market-based deployment model that has expanded rapidly over the past decade. "Battery storage deployment is accelerating in many countries and addressing some of these challenges, but not fast enough," the report states. The IEA says the highest priority is for countries to ensure...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the first test train by a private Train Operating Company and the additional reforms being pursued to open rail to private sector participation.

Grindrod's first test train has successfully completed a round trip between Belfast and Komatipoort as part of South Africa's open-access rail programme. Grindrod Rail's new CEO Siyanda Mba says the empty train departed from Komatipoort on November 1 and returned on November 2 with 2 991 t of freight on board. The commercial service will, once operational, support the railing of coal to the JSE-listed company's Matola Terminal in Mozambique. "The purpose of the test was to assess numerous factors that are critical to the granting of the rail permit, as well as rail operations," says Mba. "The test focused on understanding the rolling stock performance. This was done through an engineering simulation process carried out by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) and Grindrod's engineering team. "The test also provided the Grindrod teams with a full understanding of the infrastructure, train operations and, importantly, the interface processes with all Transnet operating divisions and CFM [railways in Mozambique]," explains Mba. "This was an important step as it assists in defining an effective operating model for all parties and the key levers that are required to provide value to customers." Mba assumed the role of CEO of Grindrod Rail on October 1. She has 25 years of rail industry experience, having spent most of her career at TFR. Under South Africa's new open-access rail programme, third-party train operating companies are allocated slots to run freight services on the national railway network owned by Transnet. "This test train is also significant because it takes open access from policy into practical implementation," notes Mba. "There is still work to be done, but getting trains onto the network is how the industry starts building confidence in this new model." Grindrod plans to kick off commercial operations next year, following the successful completion of the test phase and the implementation of the required operating arrangements under the Rail Access Agreement (RAA) with the Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager (TRIM). Mba says the test run will also determine if the JSE-listed logistics group will be awarded a rail permit by the Railway Safety Regulator. "Our priority is to establish a service that customers can rely on and that can scale over time," she adds. "Our entry into rail open access is deliberately phased. In the first year of operation, we plan to transport approximately 288 000 t using our two allocated slots a week – primarily coal from Mpumalanga to our Matola terminal in Mozambique." Mba says the plan is to then scale up based on what the group learnt from this initial phase. The second step would be a third weekly slot, which would lift volumes to roughly 432 000 t/y, subject to the allocation of additional capacity and customer demand. "For Grindrod, the opportunity lies in more than adding additional tonnage onto rail. "It is about using rail to integrate and unlock efficiencies at our ports and terminals. That is the strategic opportunity – connecting the corridor more effectively and capturing value across the broader logistics chain for improved customer service." Rolling Stock Investment In the first phase of commercial operations next year, Grindrod aims to deploy four locomotives and 50 wagons from its existing fleet to run two slots a week. A third slot would require an additional 50 wagons, at a total cost of around R100-million. These wagons are already on order and expected to arrive in the first half of next year, says Mba. The locomotives are drawn from Grindrod's existing fleet. "This is a disciplined investment in growth – deploying assets we already have while adding capacity as the opportunity grows," says Mba. "The pace of growth will ultimately be shaped by customer demand, corridor performance and the availability of additional slots. The opportunity is to prove the model, build confidence and then scale. "Our immediate focus is on dry-bulk commodities that complement Grindrod's existin...

In a rail reform milestone, Grindrod has become the first private train operating company (TOC) to operate on South Africa's national freight rail network under the country's new open-access framework. The Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager (TRIM) confirmed on November 3 that the inaugural test-train journey was completed on the North-East Corridor by the JSE-listed integrated logistics and shipping group. The operation commenced from Komatipoort on November 1, with the empty leg, and returned on November 2, with 2 991 tonnes, using Grindrod-owned locomotives and wagons to demonstrate the company's readiness to commence services on the corridor. Grindrod plans to begin commercial operations in 2027, when it expects to transport about 288 000 t in its first year, using its two allocated slots on the North-East Corridor. The company will primarily move coal from Mpumalanga to Grindrod's Matola Terminal, in Mozambique, and indicates that it will use the period to assess prospects for additional rail allocations. The milestone follows the signing of rail access agreements with 12 TOCs in May, comprising 11 private TOCs, including Grindrod, and State-owned Transnet Freight Rail (TFR), which has hitherto monopolised rail operations in South Africa. TRIM CEO Moshe Motlohi described the successful completion of the test train as a landmark achievement for South Africa's rail reform programme. "It demonstrates that open access is no longer a policy concept but an operational reality. Through collaboration with private operators such as Grindrod, we are creating a more competitive and efficient rail network that supports economic growth and strengthens South Africa's logistics capability," Motlohi said. Grindrod Limited CEO Kwazi Mabaso added that it was also an important milestone in the transformation of South Africa's freight logistics sector. "As an integrated logistics provider, the ability to combine rail operations with our terminal infrastructure and corridor footprint enables us to deliver greater efficiency, reliability and value to our customers. We are proud to partner with TRIM in demonstrating the practical benefits of rail reform and helping restore rail as the backbone of bulk freight transport," Mabaso added. The development follows the publication in September of the fourth edition of the Network Statement by TRIM, which is said to address several key issues raised by industry stakeholders to ensure the bankability of investments in rail operations. It also comes amid moves to assemble a technical task team before year-end to help government finalise the approach to be taken to the corporatisation of TRIM, which will involve its separation from the Transnet Group. TRIM, which is responsible for South Africa's rail network, was established as a separate Transnet Group subsidiary from TFR in October 2024 ahead of moves by government to open up the rail network to private TOCs. The reform has been linked to raising freight rail volumes to 250-million tonnes by 2030, with TFR having railed 167.9-million tonnes in 2025/26. TRIM's unbundling from Transnet and the establishment of a Transport Economic Regulator are viewed as key to levelling the playing field for increased private sector participation, as well as to positioning the entity to increase much-needed investment in the network.

The announcement by the US government of its intention to exclude South Africa as a beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) as from January 1, 2027, is not expected to affect South Africa's growth outlook, with exports under the scheme representing about 1% of South Africa's total trade. However, in response to the announcement, Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) warned that business sentiment could "take a knock". BUSA CEO Khulekani Mathe joined Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau in emphasising that the loss of Agoa eligibility did not represent the loss of the US as a trade partner. With Tau also stressing that Agoa did "not constitute the totality of the economic relationship between South Africa and the US". In a statement following confirmation by US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer that South Africa's Agoa eligibility would be terminated, Tau noted that bilateral trade stood at $28.8-billion in 2025, when 89% of South African exports entered under World Trade Organisation most favoured nation terms. Government estimates that about 10% entered under Agoa, down from 28% in 2024 and that the value of Agoa exports fell to $1.7-billion last year, from $4-billion in 2024. BUSA calculated that the preferential tariff access was worth around $55-million in tariff savings for US importers last year and that the loss of Agoa would add about 3.6 percentage points to tariffs on the goods it covered. "In reality, the broader array of US tariffs – including the 12.5% so-called 'forced labour' tariff and others on specific goods – is already having a far greater impact on the prices of South African goods in the US. "The Section 232 national-security tariffs on cars, metals and other products alone add around $450-million a year in duties – about eight times what Agoa saved," Mathe added. This point was amplified by XA Global Trader Advisors CEO Donald MacKay, who told Engineering News that the tariffs already imposed on South Africa by President Donald Trump's administration were more significant economically than the loss of Agoa. "If the Agoa exclusion had happened before all of that [the other tariffs], the impact would have been far more pronounced. But the worst pain has already been taken, and it's already baked into our economic numbers and I don't think this is going to shift the needle," MacKay said. PSG Financial Services chief economist Johann Els added that it was easy to overstate the direct economic impact. "The bigger concern is the potential impact on business confidence, investment and diplomatic relations between the two countries," Els said, while acknowledging that some South African exports to the US would become less competitive. Likewise, North-West University Business School economist Professor Raymond Parsons said that, while the termination would have a minimal impact on the domestic economy as a whole, specific sectors such as agriculture and the motor industry would be negatively affected. There was particular concern about agricultural sectors, such as citrus, nuts and grapes, and the potential for negative consequences for firms and jobs in the Northern Cape and Western Cape, which accounted for about 40% of US-linked jobs on a fifth of the trade. BUSA said these companies would need time and support to find new buyers, while warning that hundreds of jobs would likely be lost. The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) described South Africa's Agoa exclusion as "a serious blow", and yet another setback for an industry already hurting from the conflict in the Middle East, as well as high input costs and adverse weather. "Losing Agoa exposes South African citrus exports to the applicable US rate of duty, generally between 1.5 and 2.5 US cents per kilogram, depending on product and timing," CGA chairperson Gerrit van der Merwe highlighted. "The challenge is compounded by the additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff, which is applicable to all cit...

A technical task team will be established before year-end to finalise the approach to corporatising the Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager (TRIM), which will involve its separation from the Transnet Group. Confirmation of the task team and the timeframe for its establishment are outlined in the latest Operation Vulindlela report for the second quarter. "Progress in corporatising the TRIM is behind schedule, and a dedicated TRIM Task Team is now being established to ensure stronger oversight from the Presidency, National Treasury, and the Department of Transport and adherence to the timeframes in the Guarantee Framework Conditions applied to Transnet," the report states. The TRIM, which is responsible for South Africa's rail network, was established as a separate entity from Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) in October 2024 ahead of moves by government to open up the rail network to private train operating companies (TOCs) alongside TFR. To date, 11 private TOCs have secured rail access agreements and some of them are anticipated to begin operating on their allocated slots from early 2027, while the fourth edition of the Network Statement was recently published to address concerns relating to the bankability of investments in rail operations. However, TRIM's full separation, alongside the establishment of a Transport Economic Regulator, is viewed as key to levelling the playing field in the longer term, as well as to positioning the entity to increase much-needed investment in the network. The progress report for the quarter stated that the appointment of the Transport Economic Regulator Council is scheduled for February 2027, along with the migration of Ports Regulator staff. The move to prepare the way for the separation of the TRIM also follows Cabinet's recent approval of the establishment of an independent State-owned National Ports Authority (NPA), in line with the National Ports Act of 2005. The transaction, which will involve the unbundling of the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) from the Transnet Group, is to be implemented, the report states, in a manner that allows for an equitable assignment of liabilities between Transnet and the NPA, while ensuring the separated entity's long-term financial sustainability. Cabinet also endorsed a proposal that the feasibility of a minority equity partner from one of the country's development finance institutions be investigated to support the funding of the transaction. The TRIM and TNPA unbundling processes could take their lead from a process currently under way to unbundle the National Transmission Company South Africa from Eskom Holdings to facilitate its emergence as an independent Transmission System Operator (TSO), as envisaged in the amended Electricity Regulation Act. The Operation Vulindlela report notes that the approval in August by President Cyril Ramaphosa of the Phase I report of the Eskom Restructuring Task Team (ERTT) is paving the way for the establishment of the TSO separate from Eskom. "Progress continues as part of Phase II of the ERTT, with the development of a detailed implementation for the establishment of a fully independent TSO now under way," the report states. "Furthermore, a request for proposals for the appointment of a transaction adviser has been issued. The adviser will provide integrated financial, legal and tax advisory services to National Treasury in support of the transaction, ensuring that it is implemented in a manner that leaves Eskom no worse off than its current financial position and enables the TSO to make the required investment in expanding and strengthening transmission infrastructure." It adds that the Phase II report and detailed implementation plan are scheduled for finalisation in December.

Ahead of the scheduled launch of the South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) in April 2027, the trading platform is being opened to external participants in addition to Eskom Generation and Eskom Distribution, which have been participating on the platform since April this year. The Presidency's Saul Musker reports that invitations have been issued to 85 external entities to participate in the pre-launch simulation and testing phase, while various regulatory and institutional mechanisms are finalised in parallel. The SAWEM platform has been developed by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA), which has been licensed as the Market Operator. Presenting an Operation Vulindlela progress report for the second quarter, Musker noted that various regulatory and institutional initiatives were under way in parallel, including the publication by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) of the Electricity Trading Platform Regulatory Framework for public consultation on October 4. "The framework provides the basis for oversight of the SAWEM, establishing the minimum regulatory, governance, operational and technical requirements that the trading platform must satisfy. This is to ensure that the trading platform operates in a manner that is fair, transparent, and efficient," he explained. In addition, the Electricity Trading Rules and Market Code are expected to be finalised by Nersa in November, while the Wholesale Electricity Pricing Methodology and the Vesting Contract Framework should follow in December 2026. "Once all of those instruments are in place – some by the end of this year, some in early 2027 – we will be in a position to open the market for external participation," Musker said, while describing the upcoming launch as a key milestone in introducing electricity market competition. Rudi Dicks, who heads the project management office in the private office of the President, acknowledged that there were still design and implementation risks to the SAWEM's effectiveness. However, Dicks stressed that the launch was not intended to be a "big bang" but rather part of an incremental process, whereby changes would be made to address problems that emerged once the market was in operation. Some of these risks were outlined in a recent briefing note by Meridian Economics, which warned that the potential benefits of the electricity market reforms, including lowering system costs and shifting the consequences of poor investment decisions away from captive consumers and taxpayers, were not automatic. Meridian listed several risks, including the potential for Eskom to abuse its market dominance, as well as the threat that the transitional mechanism being created to mitigate this risk, namely the vesting contracts, could prove ineffective owing to poor design choices or inadequate monitoring and enforcement. Musker indicated that government and Nersa were alive to these concerns and that various regulatory, institutional and governance actions were being pursued to help address them. He reported, for instance, that measures were being developed to ensure the functional independence of the NTCSA ahead of its full unbundling from Eskom Holdings. UNBUNDLING PROGRESS The unbundling was progressing following the adoption by President Cyril Ramaphosa of the Eskom Restructuring Task Team (ERTT) Phase I report, which indicated that the Transmission System Operator (TSO) should be separated from Eskom Holdings with the transmission assets. The Phase II report, which will include a detailed implementation plan for the establishment of the TSO, is scheduled to be completed by the ERTT in December. In parallel, a process is under way to appoint a transaction adviser to support government with the transaction to separate the NTCSA from Eskom Holdings. During the transition period, when NTCSA would remain an Eskom Holdings subsidiary, Musker said the focus would be on ensuring that the NTCSA's independence was strength...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses what led to government's decision not to select any preferred bidders for the inaugural gas-to-power procurement round and what government is planning to do now.