Overconfidence

A risk-focused mindset ensures better informed, resilient decisions. This mindset leads to a Risk Management Decision-Making process that we describe in this podcast and explain how it differs from other decision-making approaches such as heuristics, satisficing, and cost-benefit analysis.  We feature the five essential components—risk awareness, diversification, risk appetite and tolerance, risk-reward management, and competitive advantage—and discuss how these elements transform decision making.

Once more, we dive into a critical discussion on regime change, the scenarios that could drive it, and for the first time talk about what might follow.  This episode of Crossing Thin Ice features insights from experts Max Rudolph, David Ingram, Raghu Ramachandran, and Jim Evans. Our conversation covers key drivers like climate change, debt levels, demographics, and technology, and explores tipping points that could dramatically reshape the risk landscape. Join us as we analyze potential scenarios and the vital role that risk management plays in navigating these transformations for insurers and beyond​.  Now available – documentation of how the scenarios are developed, summaries of the seven scenarios presented on the podcast and a look at our full set of 81 scenarios. https://riskviews3.wordpress.com/before-and-after-regime-change/

AI is being used to improve investment decision-making and risk management. Dave and Max discuss how these models can be retrained with specialized knowledge to enhance long-term strategies while addressing key risks like data bias and overfitting with guest Kailan Shang. Join us as we explore the growing role of AI in shaping the future of investment management. Shang has written a research paper  https://tinyurl.com/25v27q4p that emphasizes the importance of balancing AI's analytical power with human judgment and ethical considerations. Listeners will discover how AI is shaping the future of investing and the key risks from AI.

As winters grow milder and the global climate shifts, vector-borne diseases like Lyme and Zika are spreading to new regions. Join us as we delve into the science behind this expansion and explore the public health strategies essential for staying ahead of these threats. Another emerging risk podcast by Max Rudolph. 

Build your strategic foresight with our latest Crossing Thin Ice episode "Scenario Planning in 10 Steps." Learn how you can use scenario planning to road test your strategies to ensure your organization is prepared for future challenges. Whether you're a seasoned risk manager or new to scenario planning, this episode offers valuable insights to enhance your strategic planning process and fortify your risk management framework.

Is there a Place for Zero Cash Flow Assets? Whether a product of today’s added complexity or a result of the recent reach for yield when rates are low, more assets are being held by insurance companies with irregular or deferred cash flows. Some find this a natural progression, while others never find it appropriate. The answer is somewhere in the middle. It depends, but often can add value when done in moderation. This podcast will walk us through examples that differentiate specific products between times of stability and stress. By Max Rudolph

We are all overconfident. Sometimes Overconfidence is what is needed to get out of bed in the morning.  In an insurance company it is often the chief risk officer's duty to look out for overconfidence.  In an unusual twist, this podcast addresses overconfidence of chief risk officers and what they can do about it. By Dave Ingram

Explore with us how AI is poised to transform the actuarial landscape. We interview Dan Kim, an actuary pioneering AI innovation to streamline research and enhance efficiency. He delves into the challenges of AI hallucinations and bias, highlighting the need for transparency and accuracy. This episode uncovers the exciting potential and critical considerations of integrating AI into actuarial work. First in a Series.

You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. By Dave Ingram. We would like to know what you think about a set of 30 Risk Culture Beliefs that we have observed.  Please take our totally anonymous survey about RISK BELIEFS.   We have been sharing discussions of the 30 Risk Beliefs - Read about them HERE

The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new threats to individuals, businesses, and governments alike. Consistently ranked #1 or #2 in the annual Dangerous Risks survey, learn why we think that Cybercrime is here to stay. By Dave Ingram  And here is the link to the Fear vs. Danger podcast where we go into detail about what it takes to make something highly Feared even when it is only moderately Dangerous.  https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/fear-vs-danger/