Craft Politics

Andy Burnham has passed 100 days as Prime Minister. Every poll taken in October had Labour first, Reform is down to 20 percent with YouGov, and last week's Budget polled as the fairest since 2021. Then his Chancellor said on the radio, "We had a referendum. We're out," three days after Burnham said he'd like Britain back in the EU in his lifetime. So we brought back Simon Hart: Rishi Sunak's Chief Whip from start to finish, former Welsh Secretary, now Lord Hart of Tenby, and author of Ungovernable, his diaries of holding the Tory parliamentary party together as it fell apart. What we got into: "If this is as good as it gets." Simon's read on the Burnham bounce: a seven- or eight-point lead at what may be the high-water mark, with defence, welfare and departmental cuts all pushed into next year. A fiver from your granny. Why the smallest Budget in years landed well: it did no harm and was sold as a breather, not a cure. Andrew's mam texted to say the £100 had paid for Christmas dinner. Farage has lost form. Simon's cricket analogy, which he concedes won't travel to Canada. Reform fired its one weapon years early, answers scrutiny the Trumpian way, and the defectors who left for a seat at the top table are now looking at losing their own. "I'm counting the moments until they start eating themselves alive in public." The case for an early election, and against. None of Burnham's opponents want one now, which is exactly why he might. Then 2017: 20 points ahead going in, two coming out, Simon's majority down to a couple of thousand. Andrew's went up, which he would like noted. Two Tories on the referendum. Andrew voted Leave on principle. Simon was a "sceptical Remainer" who expected ten years of political nightmare whichever side won. Both think Burnham should leave that fire unlit. The ballot question. What does each side want voters answering on election day? Andrew can answer for Kemi Badenoch and not for Burnham: "I don't really know what he believes." Simon: an offer that works in Godalming and in Brigg and Goole. Also discussed: No 10's communications, "night and day" from the Starmer era, except, Simon says, for having nothing to communicate; the B.C. snap election as a warning; the Queen Mary lecture tour and why Andrew wasn't offered steerage; and whether there's a second volume of the diaries. Ungovernable is published by Pan Macmillan. Find Simon's writing at the Spectator.

Five weeks ago, Sean Speer was on the show to help us pick through what was left of the B.C. Conservatives after Kerry-Lynne Findlay quit. Two days later, David Eby called an election two years early. On Saturday the Conservatives won 63 of 93 seats, their first win in their own right since 1928, under an interim leader who has never sat in cabinet. So we brought in Todd Stone, who has. Todd was B.C.'s transportation minister under Christy Clark and Kevin Falcon's House Leader, with Lorne Doerkson as his caucus chair. He now runs the Association for Mineral Exploration, which has a lot riding on what this government does next. What we got into: A Cinderella story with a pop-up shop. Todd compares the Conservative campaign to a Christmas kiosk at the mall: thirty days to find a leader, a platform, the money, and the inventory, then sell. "You might as well call it brand X." Social Credit, B.C. Liberal, B.C. Conservative. Todd on the coalition that keeps changing its name, and what always holds it together. Who is Lorne Doerkson? Rodeo MC, dunk-tank volunteer, and the MLA who grabbed a hose and went behind the fire lines. Todd shares what Doerkson told him the night before the vote. A cabinet with no cabinet experience. By Todd's count, nobody in the incoming government has been a minister. He names his pick for finance, and the MLA he thinks could lead the party one day. The quarter-million who stayed home. The NDP vote collapsed, but it didn't go anywhere. Todd's warning to his own side about reading too much into the mandate. DRIPA, carefully. Todd voted for it in 2019. What he was told at the time, and how he'd handle a repeal without losing the first year to it. Also discussed: the B.C. Conservatives inviting Andrew to their caucus retreat ("desperation, capital D"), why voters didn't need a premier to fight Trump when they'd already hired Mark Carney, John Horgan as "Premier Dad," Andy Burnham's breathing-space budget, and Andrew noticing we'd assembled a balanced panel of three conservatives. Todd's call: the books are worse than anyone has been told. We'll have him back after the first budget to check. His predictions, he says, are "worth what you paid for them." Find Todd at the Association for Mineral Exploration (ame.ca) and on X at @toddstonebc.

Eight months ago Dave Cournoyer told us the pro-Canada side in Alberta had no leader, no campaign, and no ground game. It became our most-listened-to episode ever. On Monday that side won three to one, so Dave is back — solo host this week, both of us nursing colds — to explain how, and why the Premier's week got harder after the result. Dave has covered Alberta politics for twenty years at Daveberta, the Substack I turn to for Alberta. What we got into: Ten ballots, ten boxes, no tabulators. Why the count ran into Thursday and why one First Nation ran out of ballots. The nine questions few polled. The government expected all of them to pass at 60 or 70 percent. Immigration scraped through; the constitutional questions all lost. Dave on the $4 million ad campaign that was "long-winded, vague, and confusing" at the same time. "I voted to abolish the Senate. I lost. I'll take the L." Why nobody outside the political-nerd caucus had the Senate in their top ten. Half a million leave voters. A message to Ottawa, or the real base? How the separatist pitch drifted from draft constitutions to "let Albertans decide." Who knocked the doors. The NDP ran a get-out-the-vote operation; the governing party, as far as Dave could tell, didn't to nearly the same extent The Premier's November problem. Thousands of members at the convention, a push to make separatism party policy that lost by one board vote last year, and a leader who just told her most active organizers to park their beliefs or leave. Also discussed: Calgary-Shaw as the warning sign, why Thomas Lukaszuk deserves more credit than he's getting, Pollara's finding that separatists think Smith is a federalist and federalists think she's a separatist, the Quebec playbook (start a party, or take over the one you're in), and following ten counts from a Halifax hotel room at 1 a.m. Dave's call: the next big moment in Alberta politics is the UCP convention in late November. We'll have him back once the Premier is through it. Find Dave at daveberta.substack.com and on the Daveberta Podcast.

Six weeks ago Ginny Roth told us there’s a magic button in Canadian politics: press “Trump” and watch your numbers move. Carney pressed it. Doug Ford pressed it. Then Quebec shrugged, and B.C. seems to be shrugging too. So we opened a beer to work out what changed, among other things. No guest this week. This is the first “At the Bar”: the two of us catching up on six interviews and one B.C. IPA, after a listener (hi, Barrett) said he missed the beer reviews. What we got into: The last one percent. Graham Lanktree’s point that a Canada–UK deal only touches what CPTPP left behind caught Joseph flat-footed. Andrew on where the real barriers are, and why a British teacher can work in Auckland but not in Surrey. Is Reform Thatcher’s party? Darren Grimes said no. Andrew agrees, and thinks the one making the Thatcherite pitch in Britain right now is Kemi Badenoch. “Win back the right.” Ginny’s advice to the Tories gave Andrew a visible reaction on air. Now he explains it: five seats lost to Reform, dozens to the Lib Dems, and you can’t out-Reform Reform. There’s a can of Coke in the argument. The Trump button, provincially. One in 10 B.C. voters put tariffs at the top of their list. Andrew’s read from the doors: voters can smell an election called for party advantage. “It’s just not cricket.” Alberta votes Monday. Why a 25 percent separation vote is a bigger problem for Danielle Smith than for Ottawa, and what Brexit and Scotland say about movements that lose and don’t go home. Also discussed: why Darren’s council in Durham has shed councillors since he was on, Andrew’s unfinished kitchen, Joseph’s 20th wedding anniversary (china, apparently), $30 French butter from a Surrey strip mall, the beer club’s feelings about Margaret Thatcher, Andy Burnham’s Brexit habit, a curry-leaf beer that failed twice, and four days of someone else’s curry delivery. Predictions: we both say the B.C. Conservatives pull it off on Oct. 24. The beer: Coast Mountain Brewing’s Hopganjola, 6.7 percent. Andrew lands it between 3.75 and 4 on Untappd. Citrus, tropical, slightly dank, and faintly of curry. Next week: the Alberta referendum, with a returning guest.

Six months ago we had Rudy Husny on to ask whether Christine Fréchette could pull off a Mark Carney-style win in Quebec. The answer arrived Monday night: zero seats, down from ninety, and the premier lost her own riding. Rudy's first words on the result: "Kim Campbell can sleep better tonight." So we got him back on three hours of sleep and a lot of Coca-Cola. Rudy was a senior adviser in the Harper government, ran twice for the federal Conservatives in Outremont, and now calls Quebec politics for CJAD, FM 107,7, and Radio-Canada. He's also the man who said all campaign that Duhaime would have a target on his back. What we got into: Why the PQ should be relieved it lost the majority. Twenty-eight percent of the vote, the lowest share for any government in Quebec's history, and a referendum question that now needs another party's votes. Rudy calls it the best outcome the PQ could have asked for. Nineteen is the perfect number. Duhaime asked for twelve seats and got nineteen. Rudy's advice: take the whole caucus into a forest for a week before the Assembly sits. The House of Cards that ended like Veep. The CAQ's foreign-interference alarm, who pushed it, and why Rudy thinks comms classes will teach it for years. Forty Liberal seats, and a wall at eighty. Why Milliard's result is both a comeback and a ceiling. Wheels, no engine. The CAQ still has about a million dollars in public funding on the way, a voter file, and no MNAs. Who picks up the vehicle? The Trump card has expired. Fréchette tried to play it; Andrew and Joseph think David Eby is finding the same thing in B.C. Also discussed: why Stephen Harper's 2006 Quebec map and Duhaime's 2026 map are the same map, Pierre Poilievre rushing to congratulate a man who once needed his help, PR as the one thing all four parties now want (funny how that works), Quebec solidaire's Politburo keeping the lights on, PSPP's first hundred days, and a short lecture from Andrew on which side of the border one buys beer. Rudy's verdict for anglophone Canada: forget about the referendum for a while. Seventy percent of Quebecers would still vote No, and nothing about Monday changed that. Find Rudy on Dans les couloirs and at @rudyhusny.

Graham is POLITICO's senior trade reporter in London, and he covers Britain's trade relationships with Europe, the United States, and Canada. Last month he co-wrote the piece arguing that Carney's middle powers alliance arrived before the middle powers were ready. Days later, Europe sent an invitation. What we got into: Warm words and trade flows. Graham on why Strasbourg was a political signal, and why none of this shows up in anyone's quarterly results before 2028. The Homer-in-the-hedge strategy. Graham's read on how the Burnham government handles Trump: keep the Starmer deal, blame Starmer for its flaws, and hope the president forgets Britain exists. Plus the New York readout, in which the prime minister raised an unnamed company's trade problem. "Fresh air and clean water." Seventy percent of Britons, including half of Reform voters, want closer ties with the EU. Andrew explains why that number means nothing, and which question would. Why Labour reopened Brexit. Burnham told conference the next manifesto will debate a customs union, or rejoining. His own business secretary told POLITICO the conversation isn't helpful. Graham sides with the business secretary. The last one percent. CPTPP now covers 99 percent of Canada–UK trade. The missing one percent comes down to two companies, Canada Goose and Jaguar Land Rover, and a rules-of-origin fight neither side can finish. Chlorinated chicken, Canadian edition. The issue that sank a UK–US deal under Boris Johnson is the same one blocking Canada, minus the shouting. Andrew's inbox from the CETA years. Also discussed: Carney's convening power, Canada's new seat at the table on Britain's next fighter jet, why nobody marches for white-collar jobs, and a G20 trade ministers' meeting where the real conversation is Chinese steel. Graham's closer: Carney and Trump both said this week they think a deal is possible. That's warmer than anything we've heard in a month. Whether it's more than words, the next 90 days will tell. Find Graham's reporting at POLITICO Europe and on X @g_lanktree.

Sean is editor-at-large at The Hub, was Stephen Harper's senior economic adviser, and is one of the more prolific policy writers in the country. He also spent the last month arguing a position most of Canada had decided was closed. What we got into: The deal in the parallel universe. Sean's read of what was on the table on August 21: tariff-free access for 85 to 90 percent of Canadian exports, at a real cost to autos, steel, and aluminum. His question is what the people who called it unsignable would have said if Carney had signed it. The madness of crowds. A 60 percent consensus is healthy. A 99 percent consensus is something else. Sean's best line: "I don't tend to make good judgments when I'm mad. I think that scales to governments and countries." What might get Carney back to the table. The investment summit, and the investors who won't commit until the U.S. file is settled. Sean's theory of the catalyst. Andrew's Brexit rant, briefly. Associate membership doesn't exist and won't, ten EU states still haven't ratified CETA, and Erasmus alone costs Britain a billion dollars a year. Here endeth the rant. Managed multipolarity. Sean's provocation: Carney may not just be responding to a less reliable America. He may welcome it. The New York Times interview and the reserve-currency line are the evidence. Winning the ideas, losing the elections. Tax cuts, airport privatization, labour reform, all from a Liberal government. Sean on why the Reform Party, which never formed government, might be the most successful party of the last 50 years. Also discussed: Sean's drinking game for anyone who can't name the new B.C. Conservative leader (Lorne Doerkson, for the record), Andrew's theory of political breakups, Carney's approval numbers as "Saddam Hussein territory," what "no direct payments" to the EU covers, and the minivan-driving normie in Surrey who has a nine-to-five and better things to do than politics. Sean's closer: the measure of a conservative is a commitment to ideas, not a temperament. Reagan said he was a conservative but wasn't in a bad mood about it. Somewhere along the way that got flipped. Find Sean at The Hub and on X @Sean_Speer.

Two crypto billionaires gave Reform UK £72 million in 36 hours, more than every British party combined raised in all of 2025. All of it legal, for now. This week on Craft Politics: Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor of Sky News and co-host of Politics at Sam and Anne's, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to answer what £72 million actually buys in British politics, and whether Labour can make Reform hand it back. We discuss: The handback question — why a backdated £100,000 cap is easier to announce than to enforce, and the "reverse revenge legislating" Sam expects if Reform ever wins From eight MPs to 326 — Sam's "moonshot" arithmetic, and the tactical anti-Reform voting he's seen in Makerfield, Caerphilly, and Aberdeen South "Better eyelashes on the same body" — the Burnham bounce, a bloodless coup, and why Sam won't give a verdict until after the 28 October Budget Why Canada capped donations 20 years ago and Britain never has — Sam's one-line answer, and Andrew on what candidates always suspected the money was really for Find Sam on Politics at Sam and Anne's: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politics-at-sam-and-annes/id1709628885

Reform UK is having the best year of its life. Official opposition in Wales. Seventeen seats in Scotland. Over 1,400 councillors. And yet Middle England still hasn't climbed aboard. This week on Craft Politics: Darren Grimes, Reform UK councillor, deputy leader of Durham County Council, and one of GB News's most recognisable voices, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to answer what Reform actually is, where its next million voters come from, and whether it can govern or just campaign. We discuss: The ceiling problem. Reform won more council seats on a smaller vote share than the year before. Is this a party filling the void left by Labour and Conservative collapse, or something structurally stronger? Where the next million comes from. Darren's two-pronged attack: prove economic credibility to the Sussexes and cultural compatibility to the Red Wall. And why Essex, not just Durham, is now in play. Not Thatcher's party. Why Reform would nationalise British Steel, why it's past the ideological purity of the 1980s, and how Darren's Labour-voting grandad changed his mind about Maggie. The Burnham threat. Andy Burnham is coming for the same voter Reform wants. Darren's response: nobody in County Durham knows who he is, and Manchesterism isn't going to solve the North's problems. The migration radicalisation. A majority of British voters now support detention of illegal migrants. Darren's warning: if Reform doesn't get this right, people will conclude the ballot box is broken and go to the horseshoe of doom. Government in waiting. What Reform's first 100 days would look like, from scrapping green levies to lifting the cap on medical school places, and why Whitehall needs grabbing by the balls. Also discussed: HMO Britain, why the BBC immigration argument was always wrong, the billionaire who just left taking £330 million in tax with him, and whether Darren has parliamentary ambitions. Spoiler: the call might come. Find Darren on GB News and follow him on X. — Craft Politics is a cross-border political podcast where Canadian and British experts come on to answer one sharp political question per episode. Co-hosted by Joseph Lavoie (former senior advisor in a Canadian Prime Minister's Office) and Andrew Percy (former UK Conservative MP). Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRB Web: https://www.craftpolitics.fm Joseph Lavoie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/ Andrew Percy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/ Guest inquiries: [email protected] #CraftPolitics #UKPolitics #ReformUK #CanadianPolitics #Anglosphere

Ten days ago Ginny Roth posted a thread arguing that Canadians need to stop being shocked by Donald Trump and start making hard choices from a weak hand. Jason Kenney replied, accusing her of "craven cynicism masquerading as hard-headed realism." And now the Canadian right is having it out, complete with name-calling (Maple MAGA? Really?) So we brought Ginny on to make the argument herself. Ginny is a partner at Crestview Strategy, was director of communications for Pierre Poilievre's 2022 leadership campaign, and writes for The Hub and the National Post. What we got into: The magic politics button. There's a button every incumbent in the country can press right now — attack Trump, elbows up — and it converts straight into public support. Her worry is what that does to the decisions they're supposed to be making. We were closer to a deal than you think. And when it fell apart, you could see which pundits were quietly relieved. What she's actually afraid of. Ten years from now, the politics of this moment will have passed and we'll want open markets back. Ginny isn't sure the public support will still be there. NAFTA was hard fought the first time. The age split running through this. If you're established and 55-plus, this trade war costs you very little. If you're 40 and can't buy a house, you pay for it twice. Ginny says it maps almost exactly onto the conservative infighting. Draw a hard line on the right. The takeaway that surprised me most — the answer for Poilievre and Badenoch isn't running to the middle. It's being clear about what they won't talk about, and admitting nobody on the right plays the role Buckley played anymore. Andrew on the mushy middle. His phrase, and he means a coalition where nobody gets everything — with lines on the right you don't cross, same as the ones on the left. Also discussed: whether Canadians are being sold a pup on replacing the American market, what Kenney took from COVID, why Ginny doubts half the MAGA accounts in her mentions are real people, Andrew's proposed impurity test, and the ostriches — who did nothing wrong except get bird flu. Find Ginny at The Hub and the National Post, and on X @GinnyRothTO.