Conversations with Panmure Gordon

In the latest episode of Conversations with Panmure Gordon, Gary Robinson, Joint Fund Manager at Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust join Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research. They delve into the dynamics of growth within developed markets. The discussion covers a wide range of topics, including the economic and valuation cycles, analysis on the ten largest private company holdings and the pivotal role of Artificial intelligence (AI). Furthermore, the conversation offers valuable insights into Baillie Gifford's strategic priorities over the coming year and more.In the latest episode of Conversations with Panmure Gordon, Gary Robinson, Joint Fund Manager at Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust join Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research. They delve into the dynamics of growth within developed markets. The discussion covers a wide range of topics, including the economic and valuation cycles, analysis on the ten largest private company holdings and the pivotal role of Artificial intelligence (AI). Furthermore, the conversation offers valuable insights into Baillie Gifford's strategic priorities over the coming year and more.

In the latest episode of Conversations with Panmure Gordon, Richard Moffitt, Chief Executive Officer at Urban Logistics REIT speaks with Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research, about his background in the industry, the core focus of Urban Logistics REIT, recent performance highlights and plans for 2024.   

Whilst it has been difficult to decipher amidst the noisy pessimism, the UK economy has in fact been on a steady upgrade cycle throughout 2023. Having bottomed out in November 2022 in seeing a prolonged recession throughout 2023, June saw economist consensus move to forecasting a UK output expansion of +0.1% for 2023. We believe there are still modest upgrades to come over the near-term to close in our growth forecast of +0.4% for the year. However, UK-focused investors can be forgiven for growing concerns that this good news is in the rear-view mirror and recent upward shifts to interest rate expectations are more relevant to the growth outlook. These higher interest rates will sharply increase the nominal hurdle rate to undertake property transactions, capital investment, and the costs of refinancing existing activities. In this note we appraise the domestic economic outlook and update our output growth forecasts - downgrading our outlook for 2024 and 2025. The risk of policy mistake from an overtightening of UK monetary policy has grown in likelihood over the last three months and, whilst it is not all the Bank of England's fault, outcome matters more than attribution.

Women in Business podcast series. We hosted a member of Beazley's ExCo, Rachel Turk, Group Head of Strategy for a discussion on her career, progression, challenges, support from Beazley, and advice for others. Six of twelve of its ExCo are female leaders, and five of eleven of its board members are women in business. We commend Beazley for its progress in this regard. Management has led the way in inclusivity & diversity, family, and wellness amongst other ways of looking after its people. This has fostered a workplace culture attracting high calibre individuals. This undoubtedly is helpful as the group tries to stay ahead of the curve on fast moving lines like Cyber insurance which are rapidly evolving.

CEO podcast series. We hosted Sir Nigel Wilson, CEO of L&G, discussing a range of topics, including his desire to play football for Newcastle Utd. and a return to teaching at University when he retires from the Group. We also explored the need to counter the de-equitisation of the UK markets and the need for scale-up capital for SMEs, something which Legal & General Capital is actively involved with. Whilst Sir Nigel did not wear the No. 9 shirt at St James' Park, he made a major impact on British businesses and took L&G to new heights. He will leave the business in January 2024 in good shape for his recently announced successor, who must ensure the core business continues to run smoothly and internationalise the operations further. To this end the new CEO has a strong and deep bench around him. Along with returning to teaching, Sir Nigel flagged his desire to be back at the helm of another major corporate institution in due course.

The Bank of England's forecast that the UK would enter its longest recession in 100 years has proven to be wide of the mark. But what is the outlook for the UK economy from here – do we have reasons to be optimistic? This week on the podcast, Simon French, Chief Economist of Panmure Gordon shares his views on UK growth, what we need to do to improve productivity, global geopolitical risks and finally the outlook for the UK stock market.   www.vermeerllp.com https://panmure.com/

Stephen English, Investment Director at Stellar Asset Management, chats with our Chief Economist - Simon French - in the latest of our Conversations with Panmure Gordon. In a wide-ranging discussion Stephen covers his approach to investing, his views on the structural crosswinds facing the global economy and which patterns of consumer behaviour will outlive the pandemic.

Simon French catches up with Jean Roche, the lead manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund (SCP). They review the past 18 months for the mid 250 sector, the frenetic IPO market this year, the themes in the portfolio, an exchange of views on interest rates and inflation and concluding with why she is optimistic for the portfolio in 2022. 

JP Morgan's Georgina Brittain discusses her approach to fund management, in conversation with our Chief Economist, Simon French. They also cover the outlook for the UK consumer, the JP Morgan approach to ESG investing, sell discipline and the trends Georgina is looking to expose the UK Smaller Companies Trust to.

ESG focus on Governance - Laurence Hulse is deputy fund manager for Gresham House Strategic, looking at both public and private equity transactions across a range of sectors. He talks to Simon French about the challenges and opportunities of ESG investing, taking his passion to be his clients' best wingman for the ESG investments of the future.