Conversations with Bill Kristol

Where do things stand on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine? What is the situation in European politics after the German elections? How should we think about the continued challenge of countering autocracy at home and abroad?To discuss these questions we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. As Applebaum explains, despite difficulties on the battlefield, Ukraine is holding up: “The [Russians] cannot win… without Trump." And she argues that the outcome of the German elections present reasons for optimism that a European "coalition of the willing" may be emerging to seriously counter the Russian threat and support Ukraine. Applebaum also shares her perspective on the first month of the Trump administration. As she puts it: “The idea that you have to take control of state institutions and you have to make them work for you personally rather than for the people…. This is something that every illiberal leader elected and unelected sooner or later thinks they need to do. [But] this is more radical than anything any [contemporary] European far-right party has ever done.”

What is the role of social media in our politics today? To discuss, we are joined by Renée DiResta, a leading analyst of the internet and its effects on politics and society. As DiResta explains, social media platforms today are significant sources of political power that are fundamentally different from traditional media like newspapers, radio, and television. Social media makes users active participants in the consumption of information and algorithms have reinforced the polarization in our politics: “Algorithms key off of things that you like, things that people who are like you like. And then when that happens, you are put into these buckets, where you’re going to see more of a certain type of thing, so those identities are reinforced.” DiResta considers the ways in which Elon Musk has changed X (formerly Twitter), the power of controlling a social media platform, and the importance of this new phenomenon in politics at home and abroad. DiResta also shares her perspective on positive and negative effects of social media, from the highlighting of new perspectives to the proliferation of conspiracy theories. 

What have we learned from the first two weeks of the Trump administration’s approach to executive actions? Ryan Goodman is a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog. According to Goodman, behind the Trump administration’s Executive Orders and actions is a claim of executive authority “different in character than anything that’s preceded it.” On issues such as birthright citizenship, TikTok, and immigration, the Trump administration has claimed the right to override Congressional statutes, while Congress, so far at least, has been hesitant to assert its own constitutional powers. Goodman shares his perspective on what has transpired at the FBI, the Department of Justice, and the military, and explains what to look for in the weeks and months ahead in regard to tests of resilience of these institutions and, more broadly, the separation of powers in our constitutional government.  

What will immigration policy look like in the second Trump administration? How will it affect the country? To discuss, we are joined by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a leading expert on immigration and Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council. In a wide-ranging analysis that covers the complex situation at the border—as well as the political and policy choices facing Trump and Congress—Reichlin-Melnick considers possible paths forward on immigration for the Trump administration and for the country. Reichlin-Melnick notes that while the president has wide authority to change immigration policies through executive action (particularly on legal immigration), some of Trump’s promises like mass deportations face significant political and legal constraints. This is a must-watch and nuanced Conversation alive to the complexities and real-world consequences of a pressing subject that has become so central to our politics.

Donald Trump will face major geopolitical challenges when he takes office. In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense, shares his perspective. As he explains, Trump will face major decisions on all areas of the geopolitical landscape early in his term. Edelman argues that Israel’s military successes have weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance” and opened up new opportunities—but also raise the threat of Iranian nuclear breakout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages, the situation in Europe remains uncertain, and China’s military buildup increases. To meet the threats around the globe, we need to build up the military and defense industrial base, embrace American leadership, and strengthen our alliances. Will the Trump Administration do so?

How well might the political and legal norms of constitutional government fare in the second Trump administration?To discuss, we are joined by Jack Goldsmith, distinguished law professor at Harvard and former Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Legal Counsel. As Goldsmith explains, Trump has expressed ambitions to exercise unprecedented control over the federal government, with plans to change the Civil Service and administrative agencies, and wield the pardon power aggressively, among other methods. While emphasizing the broad powers the president has to shape policy and personnel, Goldsmith discusses the future of checks and balances that protect the rule of law. To preserve the guardrails of government, Goldsmith emphasizes the role and responsibility of Congress, political appointees, and bureaucrats maintaining fidelity to constitutional duties.

What should we expect in Donald Trump’s second term?To discuss, we are joined by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019 and with distinction in many prior Republican administrations. Drawing on insights from working closely with Trump in his first term, Bolton shares his perspective on what the second term might look like. Bolton argues Trump selected his cabinet nominees for “fealty” rather than competence—and he discusses the politicization and chaos in government agencies that could result. Bolton also considers the role of the Senate as a potential check on the president, and reflects more broadly on Trump’s approach to the presidency.

What do the results of the 2024 elections tell us about the state of American politics? Where might we be in 2026 and 2028?To discuss, we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the presidential election was a “national verdict of voters [who] were dissatisfied with what they got over the past four years. And whatever doubts they had about the alternative seemed to them less risky than continuing on the course that we are on.” As Brownstein explains, the data show many of Trump’s own voters had serious concerns about Trump and his policies. To this end, he argues that elections in 2026 and 2028 likely will turn on whether Trump pursues extreme and unpopular policies that cater to his base or governs in a way that appeals to the broader electorate.

Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day? To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN.  According to Brownstein, the election is “closely balanced on the knife’s edge” and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign. Following the election, Brownstein will rejoin us for a special Conversation to analyze and reflect on what the 2024 returns reveal about the electorate—and what we can learn from these trends about how our politics might play out in the years ahead. 

How would the economy do under a Trump or Harris administration?  To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. Furman shares his perspective on a wide variety of subjects including tariffs, trade policy with allies and adversaries, the dangers of a politicized Fed, inflation, and immigration. Forecasting economic policies under the two potential administrations, Furman contends that Kamala Harris would track Biden’s policies to some degree, but “her instincts are just a little bit more towards wanting to pal around with CEOs than labor leaders relative to Joe Biden.” As for Trump, Furman argues that “there’s one Trump, with responsible advisors, who doesn’t do anything he says on the campaign and things turn out basically fine. There’s another Trump who does follow through, and that could be a downside for growth and a large downside in terms of higher inflation.”