Caveat Emptor

The economic and market implications of the Democratic sweep, from oil to data centers, semiconductors, and the Fed.

“Thropic” files ahead of its IPO, major changes at the Fed, possible paths the war with Iran will take, the elections in Brazil, and of course the midterms in the US.

Hyperscalers go cash-flow negative, the housing market seizes up, and Paris burns. Plus, waiting for the October surprise and a look ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting.

The labor market shows signs of cooling as inflation numbers come in hot, a Le Pen moment in France, the unraveling of CoreWeave, gold revaluation, selective defaults, a diesel deal with Russia and gold-backed Treasuries.

A look ahead to potential fourth-quarter developments, including interest rates, the Fed, oil, equities, superintelligence, the midterms, French elections and a couple of interesting hires at the Treasury Department.

Anthropic’s leaked prospectus, a look ahead to the midterms, AI crushes the insurance industry, $6 diesel, 7% mortgage rates, and the competition for capital. 

The housing market cools down, interest rates surge, diesel export controls, artificial intelligence, and the life insurance industry gets a private equity wake-up call.

A new hiking cycle has begun, private credit defaults hit record highs, Canada flirts with the EU, AI CEOs beg for regulation, Zelensky defies Trump, and the Houthis seize the Bab al-Mandab.

More stimmy checks, the case for bonds, "I am the house," the war ends after the midterms, and the end of humanity.

The broken housing market, the stock market’s more important than Social Security, a potential jumbo hike by the BOJ, a military disaster, and Chairman Warsh goes hiking.