E267 - Adam Kaplan from Astralis Capital Management

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Bill Miller, CEO of the American Gaming Association, for a deep dive into prediction markets, federal vs. state authority, industry fragmentation, and the future of U.S. gambling policy. Hear them discuss: 01:00 – Bill’s journey to the AGA, his background at the Business Roundtable and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and how he entered the gaming industry on the same day the Wire Act was reinterpreted 02:00 – The rapid rise of prediction markets, how CFTC involvement blindsided the industry, and why AGA sees loophole-based models as regulatory threats similar to skill games and sweepstakes 04:30 – The internal tensions leading to DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics leaving the AGA, and why licensed operators joining prediction markets created an irreconcilable conflict with AGA’s mission 07:00 – Why offering sports contracts not elections or Oscars is what triggered the regulatory showdown, and how state regulators view the integrity of approved betting menus 08:30 – Industry fragmentation: the rise of new trade groups (Sports Betting Alliance & Coalition for Prediction Markets), how CEOs face shareholder pressure, and whether reunification is possible 11:00 – The legal battle ahead: federalism, states’ rights, tribal sovereignty, and why the AGA expects the dispute to reach the Supreme Court 14:00 – How prediction markets could undermine tribal exclusivity (e.g., Florida), state budgets, and federally recognized regulatory authority 18:00 – The “One Big Beautiful Bill,” why the AGA supported it, and how the late-added 90% loss deduction rule blindsided the industry—and the bipartisan effort underway to reverse it 24:00 – Bill’s experience representing Fortune 500 CEOs and how those relationships helped modernize cashless payments and banking integrations for casinos 29:00 – Texas & California outlooks: entrenched political roadblocks, tribal dynamics, and whether prediction markets could actually unify tribal interests 33:00 – G2E’s growth, what exhibitors really want, and how AGA navigates pre-show vs. on-floor engagement in the largest gaming conference in the world 37:00 – Bill on being a gambler, his favorite games (craps, blackjack, roulette), and why 2026 will be one of the most consequential years in gaming policy   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Shawn Fluharty, West Virginia Delegate, President of NCLGS, and Head of Government Affairs at Play’n GO to break down the rapidly shifting U.S. gambling landscape, from prediction markets to sweepstakes crackdowns to the political realities shaping iCasino expansion.   Hear them discuss: 01:00 – Shawn’s path from journalism student to West Virginia legislator and the surprising way he ended up in gaming policy 03:00 – How West Virginia became an early adopter of sports betting and iCasino, and why integrity fees failed before they even started 05:00 – Why gaming policy remains bipartisan and how lawmakers think about consumer protection, revenue, and political optics 07:00 – The sweepstakes industry crackdown: why states view it as revenue leakage and why the model was always doomed 09:00 – Prediction markets, CFTC authority, and why Shawn believes the issue is heading toward the Supreme Court 12:00 – The danger of loophole-based gambling models and how regulators evaluate “if it walks like a duck…” arguments 14:00 – iCasino progress: which states are closest to legalizing next, and why education gaps stall legislative momentum 17:00 – The post-PASPA state-federal balance: who actually controls the future of U.S. gambling policy? 19:00 – Responsible gambling oversight, the shrinking gray market, and parallels between sweepstakes and historical horse racing 21:00 – The future of prediction markets, what happens if they scale, and whether they can coexist with casino-style outcomes   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Adam Kaplan, investor, operator, and long-time industry strategist working at the intersection of sports betting, DFS, prediction markets, and emerging gaming products. Hear them discuss: 01:00 – How the pace of innovation since PASPA has completely reshaped the gaming landscape 02:00 – DraftKings & FanDuel’s decision to leave the AGA, what it signals, and why prediction markets are forcing operators to redraw alliances 03:15 – How big operators approach new products: build, buy, undermine… then build anyway and why speed now separates winners from laggards 04:50 – Who becomes dominant in prediction markets: PolyMarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood and the power of cross-sell advantages 06:45 – Why everyone is entering prediction markets despite lower CAC/LTV economics and why public companies can’t afford to sit out 08:45 – Why land-based casino operators are staying away, and which companies are best positioned to launch direct-to-consumer prediction products 10:30 – Testing the boundaries: whether prediction markets will push into casino-style propositions and how regulators might respond 12:00 – The big question: Do prediction markets survive the courts? Will the fight reach the Supreme Court? What operators must hedge for. 13:30 – How investor pressure, stock performance, and regulatory risk are forcing operators to move quickly  even without clarity on legality 16:00 – What PrizePicks could mean for U.S. market share, innovation cycles, and the next phase of digital gaming competition 18:50 – Emerging innovations bubbling under the surface: new gaming categories, regulatory interpretations, and tech-driven product shifts 20:15 – What the next 5–10 years might look like: consolidation vs. vertical specialization, crypto-integrated markets, and where Robinhood could disrupt the most   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Pierre Lindh, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Next.io, for a wide-ranging conversation recorded live at G2E Las Vegas. Hear them discuss: 00:00 – How Pierre began running a 150-player underground poker club at age 15 03:50 – The 2006 police raid that made national headlines and launched his gaming career 05:45 – Swedish poker culture, card-playing heritage, and why Texas Hold’em spread so quickly 09:00 – How live poker culture changed from social gatherings to headphones and sunglasses 12:00 – Building Next.io: 800+ global events and designing conferences for every personality type 15:00 – Why Malta became the world’s online-gambling capital 19:00 – Why Pierre’s identity is inseparable from Next.io and how he thinks about entrepreneurship 27:00 – The future of gambling: prediction markets, sweeps, skill games, and U.S. creativity 28:40 – The shrinking global gray market: why operators must choose regulated or unregulated paths 30:00 – Why the U.S. is brutally competitive and only a few operators can thrive 32:00 – Cultural differences in loyalty, trust, and brand adoption in gambling markets 36:40 – Closing thoughts from the G2E show floor ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Drew Tabor, Founder of Ungambled, to break down the evolving world of bonus farming, account profiling, and how sharp bettors gain long-term edges in the modern U.S. sportsbook landscape. Hear them discuss: 01:00 – Drew’s early background, from finishing every math class in his state to becoming the world’s #1 ranked Guitar Hero player and how that discipline shaped his entrepreneurial journey 03:00 – The origin story of Ungambled and why sharp bettors needed a more systematic way to bonus hedge and extend the lifespan of partner accounts 05:00 – How the Ungambled app deliberately violates sharp-betting heuristics to profile accounts as “high-limit squares” 07:00 – The logic behind hedging bonuses, manipulating CLV signals, and timing-based strategies that minimize detection 08:00 – Why female accounts statistically receive higher bonuses and how users scale earnings through partner accounts 09:00 – Building “aggressive bonus farming” systems that generate $10–$20K in two months and how VIP programs expand opportunity 12:00 – The future of Ungambled: hedging multi-book parlays, advanced modeling, and automation designed to scale 14:00 – The business philosophy of leverage software, capital, people, and one-to-many systems and how it informs Drew’s long-term vision 17:00 – Prediction markets, crypto casinos, and whether bonuses shrink or sustain as the industry matures 19:00 – Why Drew rarely bets recreationally anymore and why same-game parlays still hold a soft spot for him   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Bernard Marantelli, Founder of White Swan Data and Colossus Bets, to discuss his entrepreneurial journey, the evolution of pool betting, and what innovation looks like in a changing global gaming landscape. Hear them discuss: 01:00 – Bernard’s background growing up in a family of bookmakers and how that shaped his career in data, biotech, and gambling 02:00 – The Texas Lottery caper: why a 2023 jackpot became +EV, how Bernard’s team bought 25M+ tickets, and the massive logistical hurdles they overcame 05:00 – The math behind beating a state lottery, from permutations to public participation to splitting risk across millions of tickets 10:30 – What it actually looks like to print, store, and organize millions of physical lottery slips (including hiring an Uber driver on the spot) 15:00 – Introducing iBankroll: why crypto casinos have a liquidity and credibility problem and how his company underwrites VIP risk 17:00 – Understanding “Black Swan” risk for high-stakes casino action and why decentralized bankrolls reduce catastrophic exposure 22:00 – Why crypto casinos are growing fast globally as regulated markets tighten KYC, RG, and deposit limits 24:30 – Bernard’s candid take on prediction markets, their regulatory uncertainty, and why the economics, not politics, may determine who survives 30:00 – Lessons from a lifetime in gambling: building edge, information, diversification, and the constant search for expected value 38:00 – Why opportunities are cyclical, why secrecy isn’t always the winning strategy, and why the next “Texas moment” is unlikely under modern rules   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Casey Hurbis, Chief Marketing Officer of BetMGM, to talk about his path from automotive and mortgage marketing to leading one of the biggest brands in sports betting.   Hear them discuss: 01:00 – Casey’s career journey from Chrysler and Rocket Mortgage to the fast-paced world of gaming 03:00 – The surprising similarities between marketing cars, mortgages, and sportsbooks 05:00 – How BetMGM uses data-driven celebrity partnerships, from Jamie Foxx to Jon Hamm 08:00 – Building a brand rooted in entertainment, trust, and the MGM legacy 11:00 – Differentiating BetMGM in a crowded market through loyalty, experiences, and exclusives 14:00 – Why BetMGM aims to attract an “elevated player” and what “Make It Legendary” really means 17:00 – The growing crossover between sportsbook and iCasino players and how AI personalizes their journeys 22:00 – Marketing within tight regulations and embedding responsible gambling from the start 25:00 – How AI and rapid tech change are transforming marketing faster than ever before 29:00 – What the industry still gets wrong about brand-building and why long-term trust beats short-term promos   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Francesco Borgosano, CEO of Huddle. Hear them discuss: Francesco's unique journey from academia to the sports betting industry The evolution of sports betting, particularly in the American market, and the impact of technology on betting practices Integrity in betting and the need for collaborative efforts to address challenges The role of data sharing and monitoring in ensuring fair practices within betting The evolving role of AI in the sports betting industry, addressing misconceptions and the need for proper infrastructure The growth of prop betting and the coexistence of prediction markets and traditional bookmakers His outlook on the future of the sports betting industry   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Daniel Zimmermann, CEO and Co-Founder of Verse Picks, the app bringing a “parlay anything” experience to the next generation of bettors. Hear him discuss: How his college experience running Barstool Syracuse sparked his entrepreneurial journey The early days of Verse Gaming and the pivots from DFS to skill games to prediction markets Why the team spent years building toward a “bet on anything” model — and how legality shaped its evolution How Verse’s new “Parlay Anything” feature bridges the gap between traditional betting and prediction markets Lessons from operating under the sweepstakes model and navigating shifting state regulations His perspective on DraftKings, Kalshi, and the future of CFTC-approved prediction exchanges The retention challenges facing prediction markets and how Verse plans to gamify the experience Building a lean, agile startup team — and the value of staying alive through constant pivots How younger generations see gambling differently, shaped by crypto, trading, and gamified culture The long-term vision: becoming a top-tier prediction operator within five years   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube   ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting

On this episode of the Business of Betting Podcast, Jeff Edelstein is joined by Adam Robinson, CEO of Hireology and board member of the American Bettor’s Voice.   Hear them discuss: 02:00 – Adam’s background building Hireology and how he found his way into gaming policy 04:00 – Why he joined American Bettor’s Voice and how player limits inspired his advocacy 06:00 – The challenges of parenting in an era where gambling ads are everywhere 08:00 – Breaking down the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the real risks of the proposed gambling tax 12:00 – How tax policy could drive bettors offshore and reshape state revenues 14:00 – New data from Massachusetts proving sharp bettors get limited more often 16:00 – The sports betting business model vs. prediction markets — and where regulation may land 18:30 – The “grand bargain” path for prediction markets, following Uber and Airbnb’s playbook 21:00 – Parallels between sports betting, financial markets, and probabilistic thinking 23:00 – Predicting human fit at work vs. predicting outcomes in sports — and how both rely on data 27:00 – How thinking like a gambler can improve decision-making in business and life Check out Adam's paper here.   ⚡️ Follow BoB on Twitter/X ⚡️ Watch BoB on Youtube   ⚡️ Apply to be a guest here --- This podcast is presented by Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Since 2012, Optimove has served iGaming Operators from startups to industry leaders. Today, 4 out of the Top 5 US Operators Personalize Player Experiences with Optimove. iGaming operators know their growth journey begins and continues with Optimove, the #1 CRM Marketing solution for the iGaming industry. Get your first month free: https://optimove.com/businessofbetting