BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Helen Amos is joined by Doug Morrow, BMO’s Sustainability and Thematic Research Analyst, to discuss market risks and opportunities around the unfolding “super” El Niño, expected to be the strongest one ever seen, with an unusually high level of conviction from scientists. They discuss the weather signals and disruptions in agriculture and mining already apparent across the world and what investors should be watching for as it intensifies. Doug also shares some of the other strong themes investors are engaging with today, particularly AI risks, and his unshakeable view that there is more to a company than can be seen a company’s financial statements. Click here for transcript. BMO clients can view our reports: Super El Niño 2026/2027: Assessing Risks and Potential Beneficiaries LME Week 2026 Feedback To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In the final part of this special series on how AI is changing mining, Helen continues the discussion with McKinsey’s mining and AI experts Sean Buckley and Cris Cunha. They discuss how AI is shifting operating decisions from reactive to proactive, compressing response times, and helping with talent bottlenecks. They cover where AI is actually being used and having impact across exploration, processing, and increasingly in sulphide leaching, which could be game changing for the industry. They  also touch on how “Physical AI” could take autonomous mining equipment to the next level, how OEMs are embracing AI differently, how miners are dealing with AI-risks and, finally, what the data shows so far about the impact on employment and other stakeholders. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In the first episode of this special two-part series on how AI is changing mining, Helen sits down with mining and AI experts Sean Buckley and Cris Cunha from McKinsey. While the data shows uneven adoption of AI across the mining industry, success has been found in top-down targeted programmes rather than bottom-up organic approaches, with scale an enabler. They discuss how data analytics and AI have already delivered some measurable wins in processing, with meaningful lifts in recoveries. And while there’s a lot of buzz about AI in exploration, this isn’t about the big discoveries, it’s about enhancing understanding of existing known deposits. With ore bodies now increasingly deeper, undercover, lower grade, and more complex, calling from greater “signal detection”, it’s no wonder many investors see a compelling story around commodities like copper. Part 2 will then dive deeper into other parts of the mining value chain where AI is having an impact, what’s around the corner with Physical AI, the risks we have to manage, what it means for employment and other stakeholders. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

We discuss drivers behind the renewed rally in copper and gold prices, the quiet outperformance of the underdog metal, zinc, and why iron ore is causing a stir in the trading world. We talk through the high degree of uncertainty around the outcome for US copper tariffs, with bets rising again in recent days.  Click here for transcript. BMO clients can view our report: Copper Tariffs: What Happens If...? To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

Helen Amos is joined by George Heppel and Max Yerrill to discuss the rise of critical minerals as an investment theme. They explore how geopolitical tensions, supply chain security concerns, and government policy have accelerated investor interest in commodities such as rare earths, tungsten, graphite, and antimony. The team discusses the emergence of 'national champions' following recent U.S. government funding announcements, how policy support is reshaping company valuations, and why developing domestic critical minerals supply chains remains a long-term challenge. They also highlight key catalysts to watch, including U.S.-China trade relations, export restrictions, and the next wave of government support for the sector. Click here for transcript. BMO clients can view our reports: Rare Earths: Trade Discussions Creating a Long-Term Opportunity Critical Minerals: After Rare Earths, What’s Next on the USA’s Wishlist? Rare Earths: 2026, The Year of Execution Critical Minerals: Mapping the USA’s Potential Investment Landscape To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

Helen Amos and Katja Jancic discuss how the outlook for metallurgical and thermal coal prices has shifted following the major underground coal mine explosion in China in mid-May, which has triggered widespread closures, regulatory changes, and disciplinary action on several high-level government officials. They discuss what it might take for US met coal prices to close the gap with Pacific benchmarks, seasonal tailwinds for thermal coal, and implications of new US government coal funding. Click here for transcript. BMO clients can view our report: Met Coal Enters Its Next Fragile Supply Era: Echoes of 2023 To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In this episode, Helen Amos reviews key debates over Cesco Week 2026, including Iran conflict demand risks, sulphuric acid shortages, the U.S. arb, and challenges facing western-listed mining companies in their pursuit of copper growth. Demand side headwinds from higher oil prices are valid given historical precedent, but Helen highlights that much lower oil intensity of global GDP vs the ‘70s, a greater share of copper demand now being tied to strategic uses, intensifying stockpiling and underperforming mine supply, all provide strong positive offsets. Click here for transcript. BMO clients can view our reports : Copper Shines at Cesco Week Mining Costs With Higher Oil; What Are The Sensitivities? To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

In this episode, Helen Amos and Joel Jackson discuss disruptions to fertiliser supply chains stemming from the Iran conflict. Nitrogen and sulphur prices have already seen huge gains (phosphate prices are rising too) with seemingly little slack in the system for a supply response to plug the gap. They discuss how this compares in scale with the onset of the Russia/Ukraine war in 2022, and what this means for mining operations dependant on sulphuric acid for leaching and ammonia nitrate for explosives. Click here for transcript. BMO clients can view our reports here: Fertilizer Stocks Reawaken as Conflict Intensifies Middle East Conflict Supply Risk: Aluminium and Iron Ore Pellets Vulnerable Mining Costs With Higher Oil; What Are The Sensitivities? BMO Special Event: Commodities: Middle East Conflict First Attempt to Quantify Current Conflict, Comping to 2022 (and Even 2008)Another Week of War Escalation and Duration -Driven Volatility Fertilizer and Methanol Impacts From Middle East and Iran Developments To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

Commodity prices are reacting in a major way to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Please join our analysts, Randy Ollenberger, John McNulty, Joel Jackson, Helen Amos and George Heppel for a group conference call where we discuss our latest thoughts for near- and medium-term impacts on energy, metals, fertilizers, and chemicals markets. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures

BMO’s Base, Precious and Critical Minerals Analysts share the key takeaways, themes and developments from the 2026 Global Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference. Click here for transcript. To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures