All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions

A central tenant in economic theory is that in competitive markets, firms should be optimizing.   If they aren’t competitive pressures drive them out of business. But what about the NFL? Two decades ago, UC Berkeley economist David Romer discovered that NFL coaches where not implementing the optimal strategy when deciding whether or not to go for it on fourth down. On this episode, he joins hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen to discuss the implications of his landmark study on fourth down strategy in the NFL.  In this conversation, they discuss what the math reveals about going for it on fourth down. David also chats about why teams were initially slow to take up his findings, and how fourth down strategy has evolved in recent years with the uptick in data analytics staffers in the league.  Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The leaps and bounds made in AI in just the last three years have surprised even the experts, so hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen thought it might be time for another prophetic conversation about the future of this technology.  Three years after their last conversation about AI with him, Jonathan and Jules sit down with Michal Kosinski, strategy and management professor at the University of Hong Kong. In this interview, they revisit some of their predictions from three years ago, arguing progress in large language models is dramatic but increasingly invisible to users. They also delve into big questions around why AI feels human and whether AI will one day “domesticate” humans. Listen to our previous conversation with Michal on AI: https://www.professors.fm/episodes/ep27-the-future-of-ai-with-michal-kosinski Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Much of the literature on how climate change will impact GDP estimates that the economic will be very large. Moreover, the estimates vary widely, with some studies predicting catastrophic economic consequences of global warming. Are those estimates reasonable?Hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen have written a new paper with Stanford research fellow Cem Kozanoglu called Permanent Climate Change and GDP. In their study, they examine the long-term effects of climate change on economic activity by looking at the effect on individual productivity of choosing to move within the US, and come up with the surprising result that existing estimates may grossly overstate the economic cost of permanent climate change.  On this episode, Jonathan and Jules discuss their research findings, including addressing why current research methods might not accurately measure the effect on GDP of climate change and why internal migration patterns in the U.S. might be a better alternative approach to estimating the economic effect of climate change.    Show Links: Permanent Climate Change and GDP by Jonathan Berk, Jules H. van Binsbergen, and Cem Kozanoglu Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With mounting pressure on the higher education system in the U.S., how can a university’s board of trustees make a difference in combating some of the issues these institutions face?  Hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen are back for a new season of the All Else Equal podcast, and in this episode they identify the major issues universities face today analyze the underlying root causes. They close the episode by explaining how board of trustees be more effective in solving the problems.    Jonathan and Jules go through each level of stakeholder at a university, including their incentives and how those incentives could be in conflict with a university’s core mission. They also list five most questions a board of trustees should ask to shed light on the issues.   Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All Else Equal is taking a short break over the summer and will be revisiting some of our favorite conversations from last season. The show will be back with new episodes soon.Solicited or not, advice on where to invest your money seems to be around every corner these days. But determining whether the advice is credible and worth listening to can be challenging. On this episode, hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen put sources of investment advice to the test and provide listeners with some guidance on how to judge the credibility of someone’s stock picks. They also discuss private investing and the potential risk of getting in on the ground floor as an angel investor.  Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All Else Equal is taking a short break over the summer and will be revisiting some of our favorite conversations from last season. The show will be back with new episodes soon. When the pandemic hit in 2020, working from home skyrocketed. Six years later, many companies have returned to in-person work, but hybrid models are still the dominant structure. So with WFH here to stay in some form, what’s the proper balance? And what are we at risk of losing in the long term with less in-office interaction? Nick Bloom is an economics professor at Stanford University and one of the first researchers to take a serious look at the work from home phenomenon. He joins hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen to discuss his research into why working from home has outlasted COVID precautions, its impact on employee performance, the surprising effects its had on birthrates, and his recommendation to companies on striking the perfect balance with a hybrid structure.  Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All Else Equal is taking a short break over the summer and will be revisiting some of our favorite conversations from last season. The show will be back with new episodes soon.  Whether it be in politics, public health, or corporate finance, why are people more likely to interpret facts or data in a way that fits their preconceived notions about the world as opposed to searching for the fundamental truth?   A new paper from the Harvard Business School called, Sharing Models to Interpret Data (by Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam) studies the propensity for people to adopt interpretations to data based on their community’s beliefs, and why this can lead to less accurate conclusions. Hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen are joined by the paper’s co-author  Adi Sunderam, who is a professor of corporate finance at Harvard Business School, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a co-editor of the Journal of Finance.  The conversation covers the complexity of Bayesian updating and how the process is improperly deployed in today’s thinking, not only in corporate decision-making but also on a sociological level. They also discuss Sunderam’s model for explaining how people interpret data, why people are more likely to fall into group-belief dynamics, and if there are any interventions that would lead to better decision-making.   Read Adi Sunderam and Joshua Schwartzstein’s paper:  Sharing Models to Interpret Data   Find All Else Equal on the web:   https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/   All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All Else Equal is taking a short break over the summer and will be revisiting some of our favorite conversations from last season. The show will be back with new episodes soon. In the final part of this two-part interview, Steven Pinker, an experimental psychologist and Harvard professor, again joins hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen to discuss his new book When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows: Common Knowledge and the Mysteries of Money, Power, and Everyday Life. In this episode, Jonathan and Jules break down more revelatory examples from Steven’s book that demonstrate how common knowledge is a first order explanatory variable for how humans behave. They also explore the role common knowledge plays in financial markets, particularly when it comes to speculative trading, and examine common knowledge in an academic freedom sense, highlighting the del Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All Else Equal is taking a short break over the summer and will be revisiting some of our favorite conversations from last season. The show will be back with new episodes soon.  Everyday, we participate in seemingly arbitrary but essential choices for society to function. We all agree on what side of the road to drive on, to use paper currency, or to speak the same language. These kinds of choices make up a group’s common knowledge – things that are made blatantly and publicly known. But what about the things that are known, but unspoken? What is the purpose of innuendos, euphemisms, and veiling the true meaning of our words in society?  Steven Pinker, an experimental psychologist and Harvard professor, joins hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen to discuss his new book When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows: Common Knowledge and the Mysteries of Money, Power, and Everyday Life. In this two-part conversation, they explore the psychological and social significance of common knowledge in human interactions, highlighting its complex role in both fostering cooperation and permitting social taboos. They also discuss the intersection of common knowledge with economic behaviors like speculative trading, and the balance between maintaining social norms and fostering open debate in academic settings.   Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All Else Equal is taking a short break over the summer and will be revisiting some of our favorite conversations from last season. The show will be back with new episodes soon.  Historically, the U.S. has had a habit of overestimating the capabilities of its enemies. Why? Is this an intentional security strategy? Or does the U.S. need to change the way it gathers enemy intelligence?  Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster gives hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen a crash course on military intelligence and national security advising.  The conversation covers why the overestimation of enemies happens, including historical examples of misjudgments, the role of proxies in modern conflicts, strategic considerations involving major powers like China, and the threat of information warfare.     Find All Else Equal on the web:  https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.