Ep43 The Faux Wisdom of Rate Forecasting

Luigi Mangione is finally in custody but that hasn’t stopped health insurers from dialing back recently proposed changes to its anesthesia coverage. Hunter Biden has officially been pardoned by his old man, which makes parents around the world feel at ease about coddling their own children. And they say Gen Z is a f**ked up generation… As if Fartcoin hadn’t already broke everyone’s Stupidity Meter, Bryan Johnson – a real-life Benjamin Button – has launched a betting market for his nighttime erections. Perhaps a wrong way bet on Bryan Johnson’s NTE is what sent Mangione off the rails. Drones have been spotted swarming New Jersey, begging the question of; Why the hell is anyone interested in New Jersey? Undoubtedly a fair question, making the tin foil hat theories all the more legitimate. Following the election, Mark Zuckerberg has come groveling back to The Don, presumably to ask that he call off the cage match with Trump’s new bestie. And as a holiday parting gift, Carson shares a bloody story to prove just how disingenuous Bloomberg can be when it comes to reporting on short selling. From all of us here at Zer0es TV, we’d like to wish everyone a Happy Holidays!

This week, the Zero Fucks Given crew is back! Carson is rubbing his perfect election predictions in everyone’s face while we recap the news stories you may have missed while doom scrolling online. From Chamath's quest to "Make America Healthy Again" to North Korean soldiers discovering premium internet content for the first time, we’ve got the headlines you didn’t know you needed. It hasn't been long since Trump’s re-election, but he's already out here drafting his cabinet for the sequel administration — let’s just say it’s already shaping up to be a circus act. Oh, and Spirit Airlines somehow outdid itself by becoming the literal target of a sky-high drive-by shooting. Just another day in the aviation hell that is a Spirit Airlines flight. Meanwhile, Freddy reacts to two Brazilian influencers who prove that vanity is, in fact, buoyant (except when it’s not). Plus, our financial hot take: Why MicroStrategy’s new ETF is leverage inception on steroids — and a sign we’ve officially entered 2024 chaos mode. All that and more! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 00:58 - Trump 2.0 05:39 - The Fate of Gary Gensler 09:33 - Trump’s Treasure Hunt 15:24 - Chamath Goes Full RFK Mode 20:44 - North Korea’s Hardened Soldiers 24:50 - Naur Social Media For Australia 27:47 - Influencer Tragedy In Brazil 32:48 - Cohoes Gets Served 37:13 - Spirit Flight From Hell 40:38 - Microstrategy Goes Big 44:04: Outro and Episode Disclaimer

The God complex amongst Tech Billionaires has reached a boiling point. To be fair, Elon has taken a page out of the Zer0es playbook and clearly gave zero fucks with his jiggly puff dance at a recent Trump rally. Zuckerberg, on the other hand, is just trying way too hard and it’s apparently caused him to forget the true fate of Julius Caesar. As promised, we have a special announcement here at ZFG and it comes by way of our very first sponsor. South Korea has finally announced that it will abandon the ban on short selling, but not until March of 2025. And just when short sellers thought they were given some breathing room, Spain proves that retardation – or corruption – runs through the highest levels of its market regulators. Speaking of corruption, NYC Mayor Eric Adams has been caught with his hand in the proverbial cookie jar. And after a long hiatus of Freddy’s corner of terrible business ideas, we get real-time footage of a new idea that arguably lands at the top of the list.   Disclaimer Unless the context indicates otherwise, the terms “Muddy Waters”, “we”, “us”, “our” and similar terms refer to Muddy Waters Asia LLC and its respective affiliates, including Muddy Waters Capital LLC. The information provided in this podcast is being furnished for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, including any securities issued by any investment vehicle managed by Muddy Waters.  References to the “Vietnam Fund” or the “New World Order Fund” refer to the Muddy Waters New World Order Fund LP (the “Fund”), which is a private fund being offered pursuant to Rule 506(c) of the Securities Act of 1933. The information presented is subject to a more complete description and does not contain all of the information necessary to make an investment decision in the Fund, including but not limited to, the risk factors, fees, and the investment strategies of the Fund.  Any offering will only be made pursuant to additional documents, including the relevant offering memorandum, a copy of the limited partnership agreement, memorandum and articles of association, or similar organizational documents of the Fund and a subscription agreement, all of which must be read in their entirety.  No offer to purchase interests will be made or accepted prior to receipt by an offeree of these documents, the completion of all appropriate documentation, and the meeting of eligibility (and such other) requirements as may be determined by Muddy Waters.  U.S. persons must, among other requirements, be “accredited investors” and “qualified purchasers,” as defined in the applicable securities laws, before they can invest in the Fund. Please see www.muddywatersasia.com for more information.

​​In this episode of ZFG, Carson and the team our reactions to the presidential debate, how a PhD student's cat fooled Google Scholar, Palantir CEO's odd announcement of their S&P 500 inclusion, the sketchy AI health app claiming to diagnose STIs, and much more. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 00:40 - The Cat Turned Academic Star 05:14 - Presidential Debate Recap 09:01 - Palantir's S&P 500 Inclusion 12:39 - HeHealth Shuts Down 15:18 - Nathaniel Rothschild Invest In Tennor 18:52 - Russia's "Safe Haven: 21:30 - A Slithering Surprise 24:32 - Poisoning the Competition 27:28 - Paris Olympics Recap 33:22 - Outro

In a thrilling return of our Short Story format, Carson Block of Muddy Waters Capital sits down with Edwin Dorsey, Author of The Bear Cave. In this episode, Carson and Edwin break down the charges and allegations underlying the Government’s complaint against activist short seller Andrew Left. Edwin begins by questioning the Government theories of Andrew’s trades in the stock of General Electric (GE). He then goes on to give an example of another prominent hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb of Third Point LLC, and his activities surrounding Herbalife (HLF) in 2013. As Carson shares, there are a myriad of factors that go into a sophisticated investor’s trading activities, only one of which is the investor’s own price objective. Carson then explains why this case is paramount for the future of the sell-side industry, their use of price targets, and all the garbage that goes into Wall Street’s infamous valuation models. Can the SEC really conjure up a new rule that could require Andrew, and possibly other short sellers, to hold positions for five days after publishing a report? Carson analyzes this possibility under the First Amendment explaining why he doesn’t believe any court would grant such an unconstitutional proposal. Will this episode have long-lasting impacts for the behavior of short activists? And what might it mean for the spirit versus the letter of the law as it pertains to investors, corporations, and regulators?

When it comes to the woke agenda, few understand that the Republican Party is the true support system behind the LGBTQ community. Some might say that Freddy is just trying to rag on the US political process but he’s simply providing the facts – Republicans crashed the Grindr app due to a spike in Milwaukee.  Elon Musk continues his exodus from California, announcing that he’s moving X and SpaceX to Texas. And while Gavin Newsom thought it’d be a good idea to take a public swipe, Musk reminded him that if you come at the King, you best not miss.  China, still struggling to stabilize its stock market, has taken a page out of its 2015 playbook by again targeting short selling. Bill Hwang was found guilty on ten out of eleven charges, leaving only one question; Was Bill in Milwaukee during the RNC to perform on-the-ground research for his lengthy stay in prison? And while Gavin Newsom has taken executive action against homeless encampments in California, it appears pirates and nudists are still welcome to slug it out in the streets of San Francisco. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 00:27 - A wild week in U.S. politics 05:06 - Rudy falls at RNC 08:25 - Elon's California breakup 13:08 - China cracks down on short selling 18:20 - Hwang found guilty in fraud trial 28:34 - San Fran nudists fight pirate guy  31:27 - Outro 

The other pitched Poober. They are not the same. And just in case there were any lingering debate over who’s cooler – Freddy Brick or Mark Zuckerberg – it’s all been settled over 4th of July wakeboarding. Freddy and Carson go on to discuss President Biden’s disastrous debate performance and whether it marked the end of his re-election campaign.  Politics aside, Carson points to the cheating scandal at Nathan’s July 4th Hot Dog Contest as the singular moment that will mark the decline of our empire. And while Freddy tried to give his best King George impression from Hamilton by asking, “What have you won?”, we can at least rest easy that our national forests are safe from investment bankers.  The US Supreme Court has had a busy few weeks and its most recent Chevron Deference ruling has Carson pondering what this might mean for the Securities Exchange Commission and hedge fund regulation. Blackstone’s SRT’s are giving off vibes of credit crises of the past, while the drop in commercial real estate values are uncovering increasing cases of mortgage fraud. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 00:41 - US vs. UK 08:13 - Hot Dog Eating Contest Scandal 12:12 - Investment Banker Caught In Treesome? 13:54 - Supreme Court Updates 20:43 - Blackstone Gets Risky? 27:17 - Real Estate Crackdown  33:40 - Outro

The ongoing feud between James Fishback and Greenlight Capital has been ratcheted up to a whole new level. For the first time in history, a portfolio manager at a multi-billion-dollar firm was awarded a $800k bonus due to his generating ~$100 million in profits. I guess any publicity is good publicity, but James, the math doesn’t add up… Amidst elevated fears over Russian hooligans at Euro 2024, Freddy provides a bit of clarity of what not to do when supporting your favorite football club. Despite the SEC finally cracking down on the MMTLP fraud, the glue sniffers still refuse to accept reality. At what point do Bill Hwang’s attorneys break out the Jerusalem Syndrome defense? And inside stories of the Archegos collapse reveal just how unfamiliar everyone is with Richard Handler’s game. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Intro 01:04 - Greenlight's macro lawsuit 04:51 - Euro 2024 hooligans 07:59 - SEC's Meta Materials fraud fine 11:36 - The latest court drama - from Jerusalem to New York

Just when short sellers thought they were in the clear, Roaring Kitty has re-emerged, dealing a major blow to those taking aim at GameStop (GME). Where did Gill get the funds for such a massive position? That’s where the plot thickens… North Korea has apparently given up on its aspirations for an ICBM, that doesn’t explode immediately upon launch, after finding success with slinging trash-filled balloons. Citadel and BlackRock have announced plans for a Texas-based server farm, but Carson expresses skepticism about the true value-add for market participants and society as a whole. Carson then revives an old story of a former New York Yankee slugger whose shown no shame for his forearm workouts. And apparently, the name Joshua carries special significance in the world of legal academia. Some are just intellectually dishonest, while others prefer corruption and sexual misconduct.

In this episode of ZFG, Carson and the team have victory laps to run and news to cover! More specifically, we’re chatting about multiple fraud trials, South Korea’s war against those evil short sellers, DLocal’s stock dip, medical advice from South Park and Google AI, old judges and old mayors (we’re looking at you and your coffee line Rudy Giuliani).