Adam Pilarski - Chief Economist, Avitas

SummaryIn this conversation, Jochen Schnadt shares his lifelong passion for aviation, detailing his journey from aspiring pilot to air traffic controller, and eventually to founding JetMagic and Fly4 Airlines. He discusses the challenges faced in the airline industry, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the evolving consumer behavior that impacts travel patterns. Jochen emphasizes the importance of adaptability in aviation and reflects on the industry's need to improve its narrative regarding environmental challenges. The discussion also touches on the role of ACMI in modern aviation and the significance of understanding market dynamics.TakeawaysJochen's passion for aviation began at age six.He transitioned from aspiring pilot to air traffic controller.JetMagic faced challenges due to undercapitalization.The airline industry is complex and often frustrating.COVID-19 has fundamentally changed consumer behavior.ACMI has become a strategic tool for airlines post-COVID.Seasonality presents both risks and opportunities for airlines.Consumer preferences are shifting towards cooler destinations.The adaptability of the aviation industry is remarkable.The industry needs to improve its public relations regarding environmental impact.Sound Bites"I was 20 years younger and had more energy.""The adaptability of the industry is just unbelievable.""COVID has been a catalyst for seismic shifts."

This episode turns the tables on Gueric and Courtney by having industry listeners interview them.  David Sims and Brian Rynott join to torture the original hosts with questions about themselves.  This podcast touches on the history of the podcast, as well as leadership styles and lessons learned.

Adam Pilarski shares his background and journey in aviation, from his initial disinterest in the industry to his career at McDonnell Douglas and eventually joining of Avitas. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the logic behind business decisions and the value of being authentic and truthful in his work. Adam also discusses the evolution of data and resources in the industry, highlighting the need to balance the use of advanced models with a clear understanding of the underlying reasons and relationships. He concludes by expressing his passion for economics and his enjoyment of his work. In this conversation, Adam Pilarski discusses his experiences in the aviation industry and shares his insights on various topics. He talks about his time at McDonnell Douglas and his transition to Avitas, highlighting the changes he has witnessed in the industry over the years. Adam also reflects on some surprises he encountered, such as the rapid fall of communism, and the importance of timing in making accurate forecasts. He emphasizes the need to consider factors like population growth, geopolitical issues, and technological advancements when assessing the future of aviation.

Bryson Monteleone shares his journey in the aviation industry, starting from his work in politics to his transition into aviation consulting. He discusses his experience working for Mort Beyer and the valuable insights he gained from the industry luminary. Bryson also talks about his time at MBA and the challenges he faced, including a lawsuit over his first appraisal. He then explains his role at PwC and the unique services his team provides in aviation finance advisory. The conversation touches on the changing approach to appraisals and the evolving needs of clients in the industry. The conversation explores the granular nature of aircraft valuation and the challenges of defining value in the aviation industry. The valuation approach requires a breakdown and build-up of value, taking into account various factors such as individual aircraft structures and components. The conversation also touches on the importance of considering the exit paradigm and the impact of COVID-19 on valuation methodologies. The discussion focuses on the role of appraisers in the sustainability conversation and the need for transparency and education in the industry. Bryson highlights the complexity of valuing aircraft in the context of emerging sustainable technologies and the importance of scenario building and expertise in providing informed advice to clients. The conversation with Bryson Monteleone covered various topics related to the aviation industry. One theme that emerged was the passion and enthusiasm of the younger generation for aviation. They are eager to learn from the experiences of older professionals and appreciate the stories and anecdotes that shape the industry. Another theme was the evolution of technology in aviation and its impact on the industry. The discussion touched on the challenges and opportunities presented by new technologies, such as un-ducted fans and sustainable aviation fuel. The conversation also highlighted the importance of stability and maturation in adopting new technologies. 

Rob Dewar shares his journey in aviation, from his childhood fascination with planes to his career at Bombardier and Airbus. He highlights the importance of curiosity and a passion for learning in pursuing a career in aerospace. Dewar also discusses the challenges and milestones of developing the C-Series (now A220) aircraft, including the development of a full-scale wooden mock-up and the successful first flight. He emphasizes the global nature of the aviation industry and the need for continuous innovation and sustainability in the coming years.

Steve Rimmer shares his journey in the aviation industry, which started with his upbringing and passion for airplanes. He discusses how chance and being in the right place at the right time played a role in his career. Steve talks about his experience working with British Aerospace, Security Pacific Bank, Curtis & Company, and Guggenheim Partners. He emphasizes the importance of having a strong team and expertise in understanding the asset in aviation investing. Steve also discusses the challenges of commoditization in the industry and the need to go beyond spreadsheets to make informed investment decisions. In this conversation, Steve Rimmer discusses the challenges and opportunities in the aircraft leasing industry. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the big picture and the value of personal relationships in the industry. Rimmer also highlights the need for a forward-looking mindset and the ability to adapt to changing dynamics. He discusses the impact of delays in aircraft deliveries and the potential overtrade opportunities for airlines. Rimmer also explores the future of the industry, including the role of engine OEMs, the potential for new aircraft programs, and the importance of managing risk.

Frank O'Hagan shares his journey in the aviation industry, from growing up at an airport to working in aircraft maintenance and transitioning to the banking side of aviation. He discusses his experiences with aircraft, leasing, and the challenges of managing aircraft transitions and inspections. The conversation covers a wide range of topics related to the aviation industry, including the role of technical teams in auditing maintenance facilities, the responsibilities of a head of marketing, challenges and opportunities in the leasing industry, the impact of environmental regulations, and the importance of maintenance skills in the leasing industry. The conversation covers the challenges and complexities of aircraft maintenance and the involvement of lessors in the MRO space. It also delves into the creation of a transportation training center for vision-impaired individuals, as well as the significance of becoming an ISTAT certified appraiser.

Mary Ellen Jones (Mej) has had quite a journey through the aviation industry, from her early career in government relations to her transition into sales and her experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. She shares insights into the challenges, benefits, and surprises of her career, highlighting the fulfillment she found in various roles and the importance of mentorship and adaptability. The conversation covers Mej's experience in the aviation industry, including her transition to working in Asia Pacific and China, the challenges she faced, the importance of reliable childcare, and the impact of assumptions on career decisions. It also delves into Mej's involvement with JetZero, a company developing a blended wing body airplane, and the challenges and opportunities in the aviation industry. The conversation delves into the evolution of aircraft engines, the impact of engine technology on airframe design, and the challenges and opportunities for engine manufacturers in the aviation industry. It also highlights the importance of women in aviation and the critical need for skilled technicians in the industry.

SummaryEdmond Huot talks with Gueric and Courtney about branding in the airline industry. The conversation explores the importance of understanding the client's personality and decision-making dynamics in creating effective campaigns. It delves into the story of working on the Island Air brand and the involvement of Larry Ellison. The discussion also touches on the significance of liveries in branding and the role of AI in the industry. The guest emphasizes the need to marry new technology with a retro feel and the importance of human creativity and intention in design. The conversation concludes with a focus on the future of aviation and the potential for incorporating nostalgic elements into modern experiences. In this conversation, Edmond Huot discusses the importance of branding in the airline industry and shares his insights on creating memorable and impactful brand experiences. He emphasizes the need for airlines to differentiate themselves and create a unique identity in a crowded market. The conversation also touches on the role of nostalgia in branding and the importance of understanding the customer journey. Edmond shares examples of successful and unsuccessful airline branding efforts and highlights the challenges and opportunities in branding for B2B organizations like aircraft lessors and investors.TakeawaysUnderstanding the client's personality and decision-making dynamics is crucial in creating effective campaigns.Liveries play a significant role in branding and can evoke emotions and create a sense of nostalgia.AI has its place in the industry, but human creativity and intention are still essential for creating meaningful designs.The future of aviation involves incorporating new technology while maintaining a sense of romance and nostalgia.The small details and personal touches in the travel experience can make a significant impact on customer satisfaction. Differentiation is key in the crowded airline industry. Airlines need to create a unique identity and brand experience to stand out.Nostalgia can be a powerful tool in branding, evoking emotions and creating a sense of connection with customers.Understanding the customer journey is crucial in developing effective branding strategies. Airlines need to anticipate objections and address the needs and preferences of their target audience.Branding for B2B organizations like aircraft lessors and investors requires a deep understanding of the industry, the political environment, and the specific needs of the target market.Successful branding involves a combination of art and science, balancing different criteria and creating a brand that resonates with the target audience.Creating a memorable and impactful brand experience requires attention to detail, understanding the customer mindset, and anticipating objections.Airlines should strive to create a brand that is authentic, differentiated, and resonates with their target audience.TitlesThe Role of AI in the IndustryThe Significance of Liveries in Branding The Power of Nostalgia in Airline BrandingThe Art and Science of Successful BrandingSound Bites"Liveries are giant dartboards and everyone has an opinion.""When you buy an island, you need an airline.""Do liveries really matter? And why did Larry Ellison think so?""But... Which was beautiful at first and now it's a dime a dozen, right?""So bringing nostalgia back, what I want to see, I want to go to the airport. Fine, show me the flight number.""United Airlines was the friendship airline."

Brett Snyder shares his journey in the aviation industry, starting from his childhood fascination with airplanes to working in the airline and travel industry. He discusses his experiences at America West, United, and PriceGrabber, as well as the founding of his blog, Cranky Flier, and his travel agency, Cranky Concierge. He also talks about his challenges during the pandemic and how he adapted his business to survive. The conversation covers the evolution of the Cranky Network Weekly and the weekly discussions on airline schedules. They discuss the challenges of forecasting schedules during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unpredictability of airline operations.The conversation then shifts to the trends in the North American airline industry, including consolidation, up-gauging, and the rise of ULCCs. They discuss the current struggles of ULCCs and the need for the business model to adapt. Southwest Airlines and JetBlue are facing challenges in the middle market. Spirit Airlines is facing financial difficulties and struggles with negative perceptions. In this final part of the conversation, Brett Snyder discusses the potential outcomes of Spirit Airlines' bankruptcy and the challenges they may face. He also explores the possibility of new airlines entering the market and the role of credit card partnerships in the industry.