The Continental Rift

The 2026 US midterms: Trump is blocked at home but keeps his foreign policy freedom. How exposed is Europe, and can a Democratic Congress do anything for Ukraine? From Elon Musk’s Starlink and delayed Patriot missile deliveries to freezer hacks and bomb threats, how vulnerable is Europe? A European president and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. US MIDTERMS - Democrats surged to 54 Senate and 253 House seats, with some races still uncalled by Friday 6 November. In Texas, Republicans won no statewide race but retained 24 of the state’s 38 House seats. Trump accepted the results. Vance blamed the defeat on the war with Iran, a view Trump called “largely true”. Musk spent almost $500m backing midterm candidates ($225-235m in Texas). Georgia Senator Ossoff used his victory speech to attack what he called the Trump Administration’s “corruption”. AMERICA & EUROPE - New Congress convenes in January 2027. US federal funding runs to 11 December 2026 under a stopgap law; Congress had passed none of 12 full-year spending bills by election day. Overriding a presidential veto requires 2/3rds of both the House and the Senate, limiting Congress’ ability to constrain Trump’s foreign policy. The US National Security Strategy (December 2025) criticises the EU and calls for “cultivating resistance” to Europe’s current trajectory. No official text names EU break-up as a goal. A Pentagon review of US forces in Europe is due in December; a 2026 defence law prevents troop numbers falling below 76,000 for more than 45 days without congressional notification and certification. Starlink was speed-limited in Ukraine in October and service has since been restored. A $2.6bn sale of 500 Patriot interceptors funded by European countries and Canada has no confirmed delivery date. Reports suggest deliveries may run into 2030s. HEGSETH - Republican representative Thomas Massie says he will bring impeachment articles against the Defence Secretary when the House returns next week; Hegseth calls them a “sham” and Trump says he intends to keep him. Hegseth has lived in Tennessee since 2022. A source close to Governor-elect Marsha Blackburn says she is not considering Hegseth as her Senate successor. ABU DHABI TALKS - US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia are due to take place on 10-11 November, with Witkoff and Kushner leading the US side. Kushner says the US will consult European partners “on the sidelines”; the Kremlin says European participation in the talks is “impossible”. RUSSIAN GAS & DIESEL - The Agioi Fanendes, one of the three tankers sent under the US Treasury licence allowing trade in Russian Diesel, was still heading for New York on 5 November, signalling “for orders” with no buyer or delivery confirmed (FT, AP). POLAND - On 30 October, Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, whom President Karol Nawrocki has refused to swear in, announced the suspension of Constitutional Tribunal President Bogdan Święczkowski. Both Święczkowski and Nawrocki reject the move. The European Commission says parliament’s appointment of eight new Tribunal members is constitutional. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has proposed a one-to-one meeting with Nawrocki, still unconfirmed as of 6 November; Poland’s bishops have offered to mediate. FROG WATCH - Supermarket refrigeration attacks have hit at least nine European countries. Two pro-Russian groups claimed responsibility; their involvement remains unverified. France’s blood service confirmed no blood products were lost. Hoax bomb threats targeted seven flights and a cruise ship on Tuesday, nearly 30 flights on Thursday, and continued on Friday, prompting newsroom evacuations in Ireland. Some emails invoked a Russian ultranationalist group, but no perpetrators have been identified and no explosives found. On 3 November, the European Commission issued guidelines urging citizens to be self-sufficient for the first 72 hours of a crisis and proposed an annual EU Preparedness Day from 2027. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:05 The Rifty back story 00:02:03 US midterms: what changes for Europe? 00:04:07 Trump's free hand in foreign policy 00:06:35 Hegseth, impeachment and the vacant Senate seat in Tennessee 00:09:39 Can Democrats help Ukraine? 00:12:18 Musk, Starlink, Patriots and Europe's tech dependence 00:15:24 Brussels moves to shape Ukraine's peace agenda 00:17:02 EU Accession Progress Report 00:19:04 Poland's Constitutional Tribunal standoff 00:22:45 Digital tax, the AI Act and over-regulation 00:26:58 Frog Watch 00:29:08 Kaliningrad, freezer hacks and flight bomb threats 00:31:17 Brussels preparedness advice CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Trump, Putin and the Ukraine War: why is Washington easing Russia sanctions and talking business while Europe is left carrying the security risks? Why did Putin spend much of a call with Finland’s and Norway’s leaders discussing medieval history? And what’s behind Trump’s feud with Norway and the Serbian students’ election victory over Vučić? A European president and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. PUTIN’S CALL WITH FINLAND & NORWAY - Finland’s President Stubb and Norway’s Prime Minister Støre spoke to Putin for 90 minutes on 27 October. According to the Financial Times, Putin spent much of the call discussing medieval Slavic history and the “initial reasons for the conflict”. Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen said the call was not co-ordinated with other European governments, Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson insisted peace must be on Ukraine’s terms. Støre said allies had been informed in advance. In an October interview with Russian state TV, Putin claimed genetic studies showed Russians and Ukrainians were “one people”. Ukrainians coined the verb “to Macron” in 2022, during the French president’s repeated calls to Putin, meaning to show concern while doing nothing. CANADA & THE EU - At the EU-Canada summit in Montreal, von der Leyen twice repeated her proposal to make Canada and “associate member” of the EU, and Mark Carney used the phrase himself. At Germany’s insistence, the summit’s official text speaks instead of an “ever closer association” short of full membership (Le Monde, FT) SANCTIONS RELIEF & BUSINESS DEALS - On 27 October, the New York Times reported that the Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund; a US official said its application is under review, and Putin’s adviser Ushakov confirmed talks. Le Monde reported that Witkoff and Kushner met Zelensky aide Budanov in Florida on 9 October and proposed restoring Russian oil and gas flows to Europe via Ukraine after the war. US proposals have also reportedly included renewed gas sales through Nord Stream, though the White House says there have been no recent discussions about the pipeline. The EU says Nord Stream will not reopen after the war; Russian LNG contracts must end by January 2027 and pipeline gas imports by September 2027. Hungary and Slovakia continue to receive Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline under an EU exemption. On 30 October, Reuters reported that Pentagon officials had urged NATO allies to tone down their rhetoric on Russia, while Politico reported that Washington had pressed Lithuania to ease EU sanctions on Belarusian potash. RUSSIAN DIESEL - Three tankers carrying around 140,000 tonnes of Russian diesel are heading for the US, the first shipments licensed under Trump’s 9 October deal with Putin. The Talisman is under US and EU sanctions, while the Leruo is blacklisted by the EU, UK and Canada. The Agioi Fanendes, originally due in New York on 7 November, is now “proceeding for orders” with no confirmed discharge port (FT, 29 October). New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill is considering ways to block the tankers from unloading in her state. Rapidan Energy analysts say no buyer has yet taken the cargoes. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act began as a bill by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal; it was renamed in Graham’s honour after his death in July 2026 and signed into law in September. ORBÁN & THE UN - The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board reported on 25 October that the Trump administration has backed Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General; the White House has not confirmed it. FROG WATCH - On 27 October Turkish police detained 85 suspected members of the Daltons gang; Der Spiegel, citing intelligence sources, reports that the gang may have been hired by Russian intelligence to set fire to a Starlink underground station in Poland in September; no one has yet been convicted over the fire. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:40 The Rifty back story 00:01:35 Canada and the EU: a second date 00:04:06 Finland and Norway call Putin 00:06:04 Who speaks for Europe? 00:07:46 Sanctions relief for Putin's "slush fund" 00:08:38 Witkoff, Kushner and dealmaking 00:13:22 Trump vents anger with Norway over the Nobel Peace Prize 00:15:06 Orban for UN Secretary General 00:18:50 Starlink and Europe's tech dependence 00:20:28 Musk, Putin and the Russia deals 00:22:37 Frog Watch 00:23:43 Hybrid war as a gig economy 00:27:42 Serbia: some good news? 00:28:42 What happens to the secret police? CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved.

Putin floats a summit with Trump and Xi Jinping on Ukraine, without Ukraine or Europe in the room. Trump’s envoy calls Putin a “humanitarian” as Ukraine’s military Starlink is throttled. Are we heading back to spheres of influence? And who speaks for Europe? A European president and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. More information PUTIN’S PROPOSED SUMMIT - The Wall Street Journal reported on 18 October that Putin had proposed discussing Ukraine with Trump and Xi Jinping. “Second Yalta” label comes from a former Russian intelligence officer, not Putin publicly. The Kremlin floated the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18-19 November but meeting remains hypothetical and Beijing has not confirmed it. Separately Kremlin says US, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators may meet in Abu Dhabi in November. In Foreign Policy’s Spring 2026 issue, Hal Brands warns a world of competing spheres with Russia dominating the former Soviet space would be unstable. Russia’s economy is roughly one-tenth the size of Europe’s combined (IMF, 2025). TALKS ON UKRAINE - At 9 October talks in Miami between US and Ukrainian negotiators, Axios and Financial Times reported that US envoys Witcoff and Kushner warned intelligence sharing could be cut if Ukraine kept striking Russian refineries; a US official denied a threat was made. The New York Times and The Economist reported proposals to resume Russian gas imports to Europe including Nord Stream though the White House said that Nord Stream had not featured in recent talks. POLITICO reported on 22 October that Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, was among those considered to represent the EU in talks with Putin. Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American teacher captured in Izyum in 2022 was freed on 21 October on humanitarian grounds according to the Kremlin; Trump said the US gave nothing in return. An Economist/YouGov poll in April 2026 found six in ten Americans sympathised more with Ukraine than Russia. STARLINK/STARSHIELD - Starshield, Starlink’s military version, is paid for by US government which licenses it from SpaceX and controls who can use it; Poland and Germany help pay for Ukraine’s commerical Starlink terminals and subscriptions. The speed cap imposed on 14 October affects fast-moving users and limited Ukraine’s high-speed interceptors against Russian jet-powered drones (WSJ, 23 Oct). The missed ballistic-missile warnings Zelensky described came from US intelligence, not Starlink. The Economist reports they may have been caused by Russian jamming and bad weather. US officials say Trump called Musk on 21 October and asked him to lift the restrictions; Trump says Musk “put it back” while Ukrainian officials said on 23 October that most units were still hitting the limit. Senator Richard Blumenthal announced an investigation on 22 October. SPACE & FROG WATCH - NATO declared space an operational domain in December 2019. The Outer Space Treaty bans weapons of mass destruction in orbit. Russia’s Kosmos 2612 came within a couple of hundred metres of ICEYE-X36, a Finnish-built, US-registered radar satellite that supplies imagery to Ukraine; on 22 October Ukraine signed a letter of intent with ICEYE and Nokia to explore its own satellite communications system. Investigators believe explosive-laden drone found near Germany’s Wunstorf air base may have lain there for up to two years. Finland plans to buy one million anti-personnel mines from Finnish manufacturers. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:56 The Rifty back story 00:01:56 Putin's summit with Trump and Xi: a new Yalta? 00:05:37 What has Xi got to do with Ukraine? 00:06:38 Europe left out of the room 00:08:32 Europe's man for Moscow: Alexander Stubb? 00:10:36 Oslo, Witkoff and Putin "the humanitarian" 00:13:22 Does Trump want what Putin wants? 00:14:31 Republicans push back on Trump 00:15:54 Starlink, Starshield and who pulled the plug 00:20:58 Europe's telecoms and the spectrum fight 00:23:10 Can Europe rely on American weapons? 00:25:50 Riots in France 00:27:20 Russian bots and Trump's posts on French riots 00:28:28 Le Pen, Mélenchon and the AfD leak 00:30:35 Hegseth, Afghanistan and NATO's allies 00:34:43 Frog Watch: a Russian satellite and drone attacks in Germany CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer Music by Arno Tamm Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Trump’s Russian diesel deal, pressuring Ukraine & sanctioning the ICC (International Criminal Court): is this Putin’s best week in years? And as EU leaders clash on budget and migration, are they pulling apart just when they need to stand together? An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. TRUMP’S DIESEL DEAL WITH PUTIN - On 9 October, Trump announced a temporary US Treasury licence allowing Russian diesel supplies to reach US and global markets. After Trump declared an energy ceasefire on 11 October, Russia continued bombing Ukrainian power stations while Ukraine paused strikes on Russian energy for three days. Ukraine resumed attacks on 15 October; Trump called this “a disgrace”. INTELLIGENCE, WEAPONS & STARSHIELD - US envoys reportedly warned Ukraine it could lose US intelligence and US weapons purchased by European allies unless it stopped striking Russian refineries (Axios, CNN). The administration says intelligence sharing continues. StarShield was speed-restricted, not switched off. Elon Musk says the US military and ultimately the President determine the restrictions. On 16 October, Zelensky said full-speed service had not been restored. RUSSIA’S FROZEN ASSETS - The Financial Times reported that US envoys proposed transferring some frozen Russian sovereign assets into a Washington-overseen vehicle. European officials rejected the idea. Around €260 billion was frozen in 2022, mostly in the EU; releasing it would require agreement from all 27 member states. EUROPE’S RESPONSE - On 12 October, the EU sanctioned 1,569 Russian arms-industry companies and executives. On 16 October, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said sanctions would remain until Russia stops the war, with a 22nd package in preparation. However, unity is fragile: Bulgaria’s prime minister welcomed measures to lower fuel prices, while Slovakia is reviving its cooperation commission with Russia, due to meet in Moscow on 25 November. KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE - Guilfoyle resigned at the White House’s request on 13 October. The State Department inspector general is investigating allegations surrounding her. The Daily Mail, citing unnamed administration insiders, reported that she kept a “burn book” on the Trump family. Guilfoyle said her respect for Trump and Secretary of State Rubio remained “unwavering”. A US president can issue a pardon before charges or conviction. THE ICC - US sanctions targeting the ICC as an institution were announced on 9 October and will take effect after a six-month delay. Former ICC judge Navi Pillay was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The ICC can prosecute crimes committed on the territory of its member states, regardless of who commits them. MIGRATION & SCHENGEN - Following talks at this week’s summit, Italy extended its checks by seven days, aligning them with Spain’s, which expire on 22 October. Tighter EU visa rules for Russians could pass by qualified majority. France, Italy and Spain issued nearly three-quarters of the 620,000-plus Schengen visas granted to Russians in 2025. FROG WATCH - No one has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack disrupting refrigeration at around 700 French supermarkets on 11–12 October. Bulgaria is investigating arson at Starlink antennas near Sofia, with no charges announced. The cargo ship HS Dignity sank off Bulgaria on 13 October; the search for 11 missing crew has been called off, and the prime minister has not formally linked the incident to the arson. A man charged over an alleged plot against Poland’s Donald Tusk denies the allegations; no foreign link has been established. CHINA, TRADE & GREENLAND - On 9 October, the EU and China announced an understanding on hybrid-car trade. Greenland has issued no new oil and gas licences since 2021, while Denmark says September’s security deal gives US investors no preferential access. CANADA - Claim that US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick threatened to send US troops into Canada is included in Chrystia Freeland’s new book ‘Unreliable Boyfriend’. Lutnick has no military authority and has not responded publicly. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:17 The Rifty Backstory 00:03:24 Trump's diesel deal with Putin 00:07:47 Miami: Intelligence threats and Russia's frozen assets 00:10:41 Europe stunned, and split 00:12:00 Guilfoyle resigns as US Ambassador to Greece 00:14:10 US sanctions the International Criminal Court 00:18:46 EU summit: Meloni v Sanchez on migration 00:22:18 Sanchez's election prospects 00:23:11 Visas for Russians and the future of Schengen 00:24:18 Frog Watch: seven days 00:27:06 China's hybrid cars and trade surplus with Europe 00:29:19 Greenland and Canada closer to Europe CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Germany’s former spy chief is arrested on suspicion of treason, while ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder joins Putin in Moscow for his birthday. Can America and Europe still trust Berlin with their secrets? And as Marco Rubio tours Europe, why did the EU, Lithuania and Canada drop their support for a disinformation conference: who’s afraid of the truth? An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:54 The Rifty backstory 00:02:44 Germany's former spy chief arrested 00:04:37 Schröder, Putin and Germany's spies 00:07:48 Three elections, three directions 00:08:19 Bosnia: Dodik thanks Trump and Putin 00:10:20 Latvia's pro-Europe parties triumph 00:11:58 Sánchez announces snap election in Spain 00:15:44 Rubio's selective European tour 00:17:33 The US Ambassador to Greece in the news again 00:19:29 Washington's message to Europe 00:22:16 EU, Lithuania and Canada withdraw from disinformation conference 00:26:40 Brussels eyes a Big Tech levy 00:29:32 Frog Watch 00:31:09 Black Sea attacks and Turkey 00:35:12 EU budget talks heating up 00:36:28 How rifty was this week? MORE INFORMATION: GERMAN SPY SCANDAL - August Hanning, ex-chief of Germany’s foreign intelligence service (BND), was arrested on 6 October and remanded in custody the next day on suspicion of treasonous espionage. His lawyer says he held confidential documents but denies passing information on to harm Germany or for payment. No foreign state has been named by prosecutors. Der Spiegel reported an Azerbaijani intelligence agent may have been the intended recipient of a report containing classified information; Azerbaijani state media called the links “fake” and “a smear campaign”. Estonian Defence Ministry official Herman Simm was convicted of spying for Russia in 2009. SCHRÖDER - The Kremlin said Schröder spent Putin’s birthday with him at his home on 7 October. Schröder joined the supervisory board of Russian retailer Hyperglobus this month. He left Rosneft’s board in May 2022 and declined a Gazprom nomination that year. BOSNIA - Milorad Dodik, ex-president of Republika Srpska, was banned from public office for 6 years in 2025 and was not on the ballot. He called for erasing the border between Republika Srpska and Serbia at a pre-election rally. The New York Times reports Trump advisers James Blair and Chris LaCivita were paid to advise Republika Srpska’s government on voting issues; Trump says they were outside consultants “who don’t work for me”. The FT reports Katie Wiles, daughter of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, is a partner at Continental Strategy, which holds a lobbying contract with Republika Srpska; the firm says she has not lobbied US officials on behalf of it. US AMBASSADOR TO GREECE - The Wall Street Journal reported on 7 October that Ambassador Guilfoyle pressed a donor to pay a $100,000 Amex bill. She and her lawyer dispute the account. #Disinfo2026 CONFERENCE - Lithuania, Canada and the EU’s diplomatic service withdrew sponsorship of the Vilnius conference after Washington objected to panels on the US as a disinformation threat, per a State Department cable seen by POLITICO. France kept its support. Lithuania says it withdrew because parts of the programme differed from official government policy. In September Lithuania’s president announced a new rotation of US troops; on 5 October Trump said he would “certainly look at” a permanent US base after Lithuania’s PM offered to pay for one. FROG WATCH - Two merchant ships were struck by drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone on 6 October; one sank. Bulgaria has not attributed the attack and has ruled out invoking NATO Articles 4 and 5. The ships were Turkish-owned but flagged to Togo, Palau and St Kitts and Nevis. Defence entrepreneur Stefan Thumann, whose company Donaustahl supplies drones to Ukraine, revealed on the podcast Ronzheimer that he was informed of a Russian plot to assassinate him in 2025. EU BUDGET - France’s government debt was 115.6% of GDP at end-2025 (Eurostat), below the 170.6% Greece hit in 2011, though far larger in euros. EU leaders aim to agree the 2028-34 budget by end-2026; it needs unanimous member-state approval and European Parliament consent. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Athens is spooked: did the US Ambassador just boast about toppling governments(!)? And is America bringing in Russia from the diplomatic deep freeze? (Can Europe do anything about it?) An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:59 The Rifty back story 00:02:32 Hello from Gdańsk 00:03:44 Will Trump ban diesel exports? 00:05:05 Trump's treatment of Canada 00:06:32 Red carpet for Xi Jinping 00:07:55 US Ambassador Guilfoyle, Greece and gas lobbying 00:11:23 Putin's invitation to G20 in Miami 00:13:14 Kyviv under fire and troubles for European companies in Russia 00:15:49 Military Schengen: can Europe mobilise its troops? 00:18:04 NATO meeting without the UK, France and the Baltics? 00:19:34 Europe's defence projects and the Joint Expeditionary Force 00:22:20 Will Britain rejoin the EU? 00:23:48 EU enlargement: try before you buy 00:26:47 Frogwatch: EU governments publicly naming Russia for hybrid attacks 00:31:36 Elections in Latvia and Twitter wars More information DIESEL — On 2 October, G7 leaders agreed a coordinated IEA release of 100m barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, with a “substantial” diesel release in the first 20 days. Washington had asked Europe for at least 100m barrels and threatened to ban US diesel exports otherwise (FT). The G7 statement, backed by the US, reaffirms a commitment to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries”. The US supplied about half of EU diesel imports in August (IEA). US, CANADA & CHINA — The US ban in force since 29 September covers nearly $1bn of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles. Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, a courtesy US presidents rarely extend; he also greeted Putin on the tarmac in Alaska in August 2025. GREECE & US AMBASSADOR — The WSJ reported on 25 September that, at a March dinner in Athens, US Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle said of Romania’s collapsing government: “We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here”, according to an attendee. Her lawyer disputes the account; the Greek government says there was no threat. There is no independent evidence the US played a role in the collapse of Romania’s government in May. Aktor, a Greek construction group new to gas, has a joint venture with state-backed DEPA supplying American LNG across the region. The WSJ reports Guilfoyle flew to Bulgaria on a jet provided by Aktor’s CEO and travelled to Tirana without embassy staff. RUSSIA & G20 — Trump has reportedly approved an early-stage plan to ease some Russia sanctions in exchange for political-prisoner releases (The Atlantic, 29 September). The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023; the US is not an ICC member. UKRAINE — UN monitors say civilian casualties have risen every month in 2026, with July the deadliest since March 2022. On 1 October a Russian drone hit a Kyiv school; 104 students and 60 teachers survived in its shelter. EUROPEAN DEFENCE — In Operation Dragoon Ride (2015) US Strykers drove 1,800km from Estonia to Germany in 13 days, testing how freely NATO forces can cross Europe’s borders. The Pentagon’s “Bergen Group” meets in Poland in October on NATO’s future; the UK, France and the Baltic states were not invited. The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force has 10 members; Canada applied to join on 16 September. On 1 October EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said a missile or bombing attack on a European arms factory “would be Article 5”, after Moscow called such factories “potential military targets”. BRITAIN & EU — YouGov’s late-September tracker found 59% of Britons support rejoining the EU, with 32% opposed. FROG WATCH — Estonia joins a growing list of governments publicly blaming Russia: Poland tied the November 2025 Warsaw–Lublin rail sabotage to people working for Russian services; Germany blamed Russia for August’s foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and the GRU for a failed incendiary attack on a Munich defence company in September. Investigators believe the Leipzig explosives entered Germany via Bulgaria and Serbia, while the GRU-linked suspect travelled via Turkey (Axel Springer reporting); Russia denies involvement. On 1 October Russia briefly detained the Estonia-bound cargo ship Västerbotten in the Gulf of Finland without explanation (ERR). CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Greenland, Belarus potash and Russian oligarchs: everything has a price this week. What did Washington get from a Greenland defence deal with no end date? And can EU sanctions be bargained with, now they’ve taken Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman off the list? Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:51 The Rifty Backstory 00:02:39 German State Elections: the Left, the AfD and Merz 00:05:46 EU drops two Russian oligarchs from sanctions list 00:07:17 Hostage diplomacy: from Griner to Azerbaijan 00:10:02 Greenland: the 1951 deal v 2026 00:12:40 Trump's price list: Belarus potash 00:14:08 Driving the Suwałki Gap 00:15:35 US troops in the Baltics and Macron's warning 00:16:51 The ICC and Europe's pushback 00:18:22 Diesel, refineries and the Strait of Hormuz 00:19:26 Frog Watch: drones and southern Europe 00:22:41 Frog Watch: a Russian helicopter over Poland 00:25:00 Frog Watch: Migrants, border checks and arson in Tallinn 00:27:05 Belgium's leaked memo and Trump's taste for royalty More information GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS (20 Sept) - In Berlin, Die Linke topped the poll for the first time and is seeking a coalition with the Greens and the SPD. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won 38.2% to the SPD's 35.5%, but no other party will govern with it. Chancellor Merz's CDU took 4.9%, failing to win seats in a state parliament for the first time since 1949. SPD minister-president Manuela Schwesig is seeking a coalition with the Left and the Greens. She was a leading supporter of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and her government set up a Nord Stream-funded foundation in 2021 to help complete it; after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine she called backing it a mistake. EU SANCTIONS & HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY - Le Monde, Euronews and the FT report that France sought Alisher Usmanov's delisting to free two French citizens (Martin Ryan & Anass Derraz) held in Azerbaijan; Ryan was officially pardoned by Azerbaijani President Aliyev on 23 September, Derraz remains in prison in Baku. Paris cites national security and has not confirmed a link. EU sanctions need unanimity, so any one member state can block renewal. The 22 September deadline covered individual sanctions only; the EU's economic sanctions on Russia were extended separately in June. Viktor Bout, swapped for Brittney Griner in December 2022, was an arms dealer convicted in the US of conspiring to arm Colombia's FARC rebels. Vadim Krasikov, who carried out the 2019 Tiergarten killing in Berlin, was an FSB officer; he was freed in the August 2024 exchange for Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva. GREENLAND - US-Denmark-Greenland Security Agreement was signed on 22 September and enters into force once approved by the Danish and Greenlandic parliaments. No approval by US Congress is required. The text reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark. The Svalbard Treaty (originally Spitsbergen Treaty) was signed in 1920; Estonia became a party in 1930. DIESEL - President Trump urged Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Rubio said Ukrainian strikes had hit American-linked shipping, probably unintentionally. Russia has banned most diesel exports since July after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refinery output. The International Energy Agency says the global diesel shortage reflects both lost Russian exports and Middle East disruption, including through the Strait of Hormuz. FROG WATCH, POLAND - On concrete blocks found on railway line at Jedlanka in eastern Poland on 22 September, Polish prosecutors have ruled out sabotage and are treating the incident as vandalism. Poland’s military says Russian Mi-8 helicopter that crossed from Kaliningrad on 23 September entered about 300m into Polish airspace and stayed for 42 seconds. FROG WATCH, ESTONIA - 3 Latvian citizens have been remanded in Estonia as suspect in the 15 August arson of Tallinn building used by Milrem Robotics. They have not been convicted and prosecutors say sabotage is one line of inquiry. FROG WATCH - MEDITERRANEAN - Reported CIA warning of possible Russian plan to launch drones from merchant ships in Mediterranean comes from Spanish newspaper El Mundo (23 Sept), citing a Lithuanian defence source. The report has not been independently confirmed and Italy says it has received no such warning. BELGIUM’S LEAKED MEMO - The leaked Belgian foreign ministry paper, dated October 2025 and reported by the FT (24 Sept), says the US is no longer the ally it was and notes Trump's regard for royalty; King Philippe and Queen Mathilde have since visited the US. On 20 September Trump said his proposed Triumphal Arch would house drones, snipers and sniper ammunition; it has not been built. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Is von der Leyen’s proposed EU Security Council an illusion or a realistic response to Russian sabotage? And will her offer of "associate membership" to Canada trigger an all-out trade war with Donald Trump? A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:21 The Rifty Backstory 00:03:06 Sweden Election Results and Kingmakers 00:05:34 Nail-biter Elections in Germany and… Russia 00:06:46 SOTEU and Security Council Aspirations 00:09:01 NATO Wants No Discussion of Hybrid Threats 00:10:31 Lindsey Graham Act and Trump’s Tariff Powers 00:12:26 EU Commits to Canada with Offer of Associate Membership 00:17:32 AI Safety: Big Tech asks, EU listens 00:19:44 Frog Watch: Russian Wargaming 00:21:58 France Pushes for Oligarch’s Russia Sanctions Release 00:23:26 US Geopolitics: “It’s complicated” 00:25:29 EU Security Council vs. Kallas proposal More information SWEDEN ELECTIONS - the final count reported only on 17 September (after recording): 176 seats for centre-left vs 173 for the ruling right-wing bloc. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson resigned though his government remains in place while the speaker of the Riksdag conducts talks on forming a new one. The party positioned as kingmaker is the Centre Party, a liberal party led by Thand Ringqvist took 7.1%. The Liberals are part of Kristersson’s outgoing bloc. EU SANCTIONS LIST - France and Slovakia are blocking the six-monthly renewal of the EU’s existing sanctions list of around 3,000 Russian individuals and entities over the listing of billionaire Alisher Usmanov. On 14 September EU ambassadors extended the list for one week. France says it has “a specific national security issue”; the Financial Times and Euronews report the request is connected to French nationals detained in Azerbaijan. CANADA/EU – Addressing the European Parliament on 17 September, Prime Minister Carney welcomed von der Leyen’s proposal of EU partnership.  He ruled out full EU membership and said any agreement would be put to a vote in Canada’s Parliament. Canada exports no beef to the EU under CETA because its producers use growth hormones banned in the EU. The day before Carney’s statement, President Trump called the proposal “laughable” and threatened “very serious tariffs” on Europe if he judged it “a hostile act”.  FROG WATCH, THE NETHERLANDS - On 15 September pipes and cables were placed on railway tracks at more than 35 locations; infrastructure manager ProRail classified it as sabotage, and police, prosecutors and the intelligence service AIVD are investigating. No suspect or motive has been identified. Fires beside Dutch motorways the same day were a farmers’ protest against the budget. FROG WATCH, GERMANY – the Bundeswehr estimates that in event of a conflict on NATO’s eastern flank 300-1,000 wounded a day could be evacuated to Germany; military and civilian hospitals are preparing. RUSSIA – a CNN investigation published on 15 September reported that 14 Russian reconnaissance satellites passed over Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in the two days before Iran’s strike on the base on 27 March and that US officials believe the intelligence was shared with Teheran.  Russia denies it.  US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE – On 15 September DOJ charged five men – two Russian nationals and three Cuban and Venezuelan nationals living in Russia – with working for Russian intelligence to plan surveillance, sabotage and targeted killings including a plot to murder a Russian dissident in the US.  All five remain at large. THE KENNEDY CENTRE – Its board, appointed by President Trump, voted on 15 September to close the venue.  The Administration has said in court it could be demolished if its renovation plan is blocked..    LINDSEY O. GRAHAM SANCTIONING RUSSIA AND IRAN ACT 2026 - passed by US House on 16 September after clearing the Senate in August.  White House has said the President plans to sign it.  It will give the President discretion to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas and on countries judged to help Russia evade sanctions, a clause critics in Congress say reaches far beyond Russia. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

When Germany’s far-right wins, Trump posts "MGGA" and leaks reveal US pressuring NATO allies to dismantle the International Criminal Court, should Europe confront, or accommodate its antagonists? A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:06 The Rifty Back Story 00:03:02 Far Right AfD Wins 00:13:21 Sweden Votes! 00:17:40 Frog Watch (drones, hybrid war & Putin) 00:23:08 Trump's Annexation Map 00:26:49 Update: Kaja Kallas 00:30:13 EU Enlargment hits the brakes 00:35:34 US Pressues NATO allies to close ICC More Information AfD election victory - The federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified the AfD as 'confirmed right-wing extremist' in May 2025; in February 2026 the Cologne administrative court suspended that classification pending the main proceedings. The AfD first came top in a state election in Thuringia on 1 September 2024 (32.8%). Saxony-Anhalt is its highest state result and the first in which it is within reach of the premiership. Chancellor Merz said of the result that there was 'particularly great joy' 2,500 km to the east. No statement from President Putin. AfD policy positions - the party's federal programme opposes 'ideologically motivated inclusion' and wants special schools for children with special educational needs; it rejects adoption rights for same-sex couples; 'remigration' is described by the party as the removal of illegal migrants and criminals, and by Chancellor Merz as 'ethnic cleansing by skin colour and origin'; the Saxony-Anhalt intelligence service says the state branch's programme is 'permeated by the racist ideology of ethnopluralism'. Alice Weidel is co-0chair of the AfD. her family home is in Einsiedeln, Switzerland; her official residence is in Überlingen, Germany, and she works in Berlin. Her female partner was born in Sri Lanka and adopted by a Swiss family. The couple's two sons were born to Weidel’s partner and adopted by Weidel. Saxony-Anhalt - Saxony-Anhalt had 192,155 foreign nationals at the end of 2025 about 9% of residents, roughly half the national share and among the lowest of any state; the lowest share is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The aiport drones were found at Leipzig/Halle Airport, at Schkeuditz in Saxony, a few kilometres from the Saxony-Anhalt. Swedish-Estonian Nobel laureates - Svante Pääbo, Nobel laureate in medicine in 2022, was born in Stockholm to the Estonian refugee chemist Karin Pääbo and the Swedish Nobel laureate Sune Bergström. The most recent laureate based in Sweden is Anne L'Huillier of Lund University (physics, 2023), born in France. Hungary - Hungary expelled ten Russian diplomats on Tuesday 8 September. Foreign Minister Anita Orbán, who announced it, is no relation to former prime minister Viktor Orbán.  Kushner & Witkoff - The US envoys travelled to Kyiv by train from Poland on 6 September. President Zelensky said Russia had struck Kyiv's airports the night before to prevent them landing. At the joint press conference with President Zelensky in Kyiv on 6 September, Jared Kushner said: 'From President Putin's perspective, I think he has certain objectives that he expresses he wants to achieve, but obviously there are different aspirations that he has for his country that can also be achieved once this is concluded.' EU Enlargement - Marta Kos, on 8 September: 'We should not risk our future members building dependencies on others that run counter to our long-term interest.' She named Russia as an adversary in the enlargement process, spoke of 'pressure… from the MAGA ideologists', and described China's approach as economic rather than disinformation-led. the Polish government supports Ukraine accession with conditions (opposition comes from President Nawrocki and from a majority of Polish voters). President Macron has said accession would take 'decades'. The Common Agricultural Policy, of which France and Poland are the largest beneficiaries, is about a third of the EU’s 2021-27 budget, and about a quarter of actual EU spending in 2023. ICC - POLITICO reported on 10 September that at a closed meeting of NATO ambassadors in mid-July the US ambassador, Matthew Whitaker, asked allies to withdraw from the Rome Statute and help 'systematically dismantle' the International Criminal Court, ending with 'We will be watching closely who stands with America.' US strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific are continuing: the most recent was on 9 September; at least 230 people have been killed in more than 70 strikes since September 2025. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband Executive Producer Fred Casella © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Why would Washington spend $4 million on Europe's right-wing media while inviting Russia's finance minister back to the G20? And why Is Germany allowing US company to build a European-sourced cruise missile near Leipzig? A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:16 Continental Rift backstory 00:02:48 Iceland EU Referendum Result 00:06:57 Germans blame Russia for Attacks 00:12:59 US co. build European cruise missle for Ukraine 00:15:15 Sweden Buys 4x Frigates 00:17:41 Far-Right AfD lead German State election 00:21:19 US spends $$$ on European right-wing media 00:26:23 EU Chief Diplomat position threatened 00:31:53 Russian Finance Minister snubbed at G20 Meeting More Information Leipzig suspects. German investigators have identified two suspects in the 4 August Leipzig drone attack through DNA and mobile-phone data, with reports of up to four people under investigation. As of recording, no arrests had been announced. One suspect held an Italian tourist visa; Italian security sources say he never travelled through Italy. The other, a Russian-born man with a Latvian passport, flew into Berlin in late July. According to European Parliament VP Picierno, EU states issued more than 477,000 tourist visas to Russian citizens in 2025 with Italy, France and Spain the largest issuers. Russia's response. On 3 September, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Goethe-Institut centres in Moscow, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg would be closed, adding that any other response would show a lack of "self-respect" on Russia's part. Russia's ambassador to Germany says the Bonn consulate closes on 18 September and the Russian House in Berlin by June 2027. The Leipzig missile factory. The US company Covenant plans to build cruise missiles with a range of more than 1,500 km near Leipzig from 2027, with most components sourced in Germany and Europe. Starlink. Ukraine asked the White House in late July to intervene with SpaceX over the use of Starlink for strikes inside Russia. The Financial Times reported in August that the request was not taken up by the administration. Sweden's frigates. Sweden's contract with France's Naval Group for four FDI air-defence frigates is worth SEK 47 billion (about €4.3 billion), with first delivery due in 2030. US grants for European media. Reuters reported on 31 August that the State Department plans $4 million for right-wing media in Europe within a package of at least $25 million for civil-society groups working on conservative causes. The grants are administered by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, which says it does not fund political parties. Recipients have not been identified. Congressional review runs to the end of September. Trump and Spain. President Trump has threatened tariffs on Spain over its refusal to meet NATO's 5% spending target (October 2025) and threatened 100% tariffs on any country imposing a digital services tax (June 2026). Kaja Kallas. Her full title is High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. The Franco-German paper reported by Politico (31 August) would make her an executive vice-president coordinating the Commission's external departments, move much of the EEAS's roughly 5,000 staff into the Commission, and keep security and defence staff under her. At the Wicklow meeting, ministers broadly supported the existing institutional setup but argued it must work better in practice. Timmermans. In a 2023 Dutch television interview, Frans Timmermans said that Kaja Kallas being prime minister of a country bordering Russia was a potential issue for the NATO secretary-general role. Norway, home of then secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, shares a 198 km border with Russia. Estonia. Ülle Madise was elected President of Estonia by parliament on 2 September 2026 and takes office on 12 October.