Soybeans Market & trade

Established companies should not undertake business-model innovation lightly. They can often create new products that disrupt competitors without fundamentally changing their own business model. Procter & Gamble, for example, developed a number of what it calls “disruptive market innovations” with such products as the Swiffer disposable mop and duster and Febreze, a new kind of air freshener. Both innovations built on P&G’s existing business model and its established dominance in household consumables. There are clearly times, however, when creating new growth requires venturing not only into unknown market territory but also into unknown business model territory. When? The short answer is “When significant changes are needed to all four elements of your existing model.” But it’s not always that simple. Management judgment is clearly required. That said, we have observed five strategic circumstances that often require business model change: 1. The opportunity to address through disruptive innovation the needs of large groups of potential customers who are shut out of a market entirely because existing solutions are too expensive or complicated for them. This includes the opportunity to democratize products in emerging markets (or reach the bottom of the pyramid), as Tata’s Nano does. 2. The opportunity to capitalize on a brandnew technology by wrapping a new business model around it (Apple and MP3 players) or the opportunity to leverage a tested technology by bringing it to a whole new market (say, by offering military technologies in the commercial space or vice versa). 3. The opportunity to bring a job-to-bedone focus where one does not yet exist. That’s common in industries where companies focus on products or customer segments, which leads them to refine existing products more and more, increasing commoditization over time. A jobs focus allows companies to redefine industry profitability. For example, when FedEx entered the package delivery market, it did not try to compete through lower prices or better marketing. Instead, it concentrated on fulfilling an entirely unmet customer need to receive packages far, far faster, and more reliably, than any service then could. To do so, it had to integrate its key processes and resources in a vastly more efficient way. The business model that resulted from this job-to-be-done emphasis gave FedEx a significant competitive advantage that took UPS many years to copy. 4. The need to fend off low-end disrupters. If the Nano is successful, it will threaten other automobile makers, much as minimills threatened the integrated steel mills a generation ago by making steel at significantly lower cost. 5. The need to respond to a shifting basis of competition. Inevitably, what defines an acceptable solution in a market will change over time, leading core market segments to commoditize. Hilti needed to change its business model in part because of lower global manufacturing costs; “good enough” low-end entrants had begun chipping away at the market for high-quality power tools. Of course, companies should not pursue business model reinvention unless they are confident that the opportunity is large enough to warrant the effort. And, there’s really no point in instituting a new business model unless it’s not only new to the company but in some way new or game-changing to the industry or market. To do otherwise would be a waste of time and money. These questions will help you evaluate whether the challenge of business model innovation will yield acceptable results. Answering “yes” to all four greatly increases the odds of successful execution: • Can you nail the job with a focused, compelling customer value proposition? • Can you devise a model in which all the elements—the customer value proposition, the profit formula, the key resources, and the key processes—work together to get the job done in the most efficient way possible? • Can you create a new business development process unfettered by

Though Mato Grosso has been the focus of crop expansion in Brazil over the past few decades, new regions closer to the coasts hold potential. Large-scale producers in Mato Grosso, seeing little room for expansion in the state, are increasingly purchasing land in Piaui, Maranhao, and Tocantins. These states are closer to ports and land is generally priced lower than in Mato Grosso. However, due to the drier climate, typically only one crop is harvested in these arese each year, compared to two in Mato Grosso. planted area, in Tocantins will be 1,444.91 thousand hectares, with an increase of 3% compared to last season. Rainfed soybean remains a highlight and had a 4.1% increase over the past season and corn 2nd crop reached an increase of over 28% in area, with planting of about 203,000 hectares. Already cotton production continues to grow in Tocantins; In the past season, the planted area was about 2.8 thousand hectares, rising to 4.16 thousand hectares. For the 2018/2019 Crop, the expected grain production for the state of Tocantins should exceed 4,755 thousand tons, 3.8% higher than the previous crop. Soybeans continue to be highlighted, with an estimated production of more than 2,911 thousand tons, followed by corn that this year will exceed 1,104 thousand tons, with great highlight in the second crop that is expected to produce more than 900 thousand tons, 69% higher than in the previous year. Past crop. Rice production should be over 623 thousand tons, mainly in the floodplain areas. In the soybean frontier states of Bahia, Piauí, Tocantins and Maranhao, collectively known as Matopiba, hot and dry weather reduced planted area and delayed planting this season. The Bahia state government extended the planting season by three weeks – through January 20. In the other three states planting typically lasts through January. As such, with an increase of rain in January, farmers in the region are more optimistic that yields may yet turn out to be around 5-year average. Nationwide, as of the third week of January, producers collected under two percent of the forecast harvest. Most of the harvesting underway has been in Mato Grosso, with Parana being in distant second. Overall, Post believes that forecast may be revised upward if the weather continues to cooperate.

Brazil is forecast to overtake the United States as the leading soybean producer in the world during the 2019/20 season. Post revised up forecast for 2019/20 soybean planted area to 36.8 million hectares. The revision is based on the market exuberance over soybean prices in the last several months. Production is forecast at 123.5 million metric tons (mmt) based on trend yields. The delayed pace of planting should not significantly impact the harvest timeline, with the first soybeans harvested ready to ship in January. Soybean exports are forecast at 75 mmt for 2019/20. Post revised 2018/19 export estimate to 73 mmt based on record volume of exports in October and November. Post maintains the 2019/20 forecast of 44 mmt of soybeans destined for processing next season, driven by rising domestic demand for soy oil. Producers are cognizant that a trade accord between Washington and Beijing is almost certain to lessen Brazilian exports and exert downward pressure on Brazil’s soybean prices. Post forecasts a record crop for the 2019/20 year, at 123.5 million metric tons . Brazil’s previous record crop was 122 million metric tons, recorded in 2017/18 season. The 2019/20 production forecast is based on a return to trendline yields after the current season was adversely affected by inclement weather. Post forecasts yield at 3.36 metric tons per hectare. Notably, according to the forecast from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. soybean harvest will be less than 100 million metric tons in 2019/20, a drop of almost 20 percent on the previous season. Thus, as long as local weather across the key producing states does not deteriorate significantly, Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as the leading soybean producer in the world this coming season. All information is disponibilizaded in U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE In Report Name: Oilseeds and Products Update Date: December 27,2019 Report Number: BR2019-0065