Oil Ground Up

Oil prices are soaring, diesel markets are facing historic shortages, and geopolitical conflict is disrupting global energy flows. But could crude oil prices fall sharply once Middle Eastern supply returns?On this episode of Oil Ground Up, host Rory Johnston welcomes Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President and Head of Trading at BOK Financial, for an in-depth discussion of crude oil markets, producer hedging strategies, the global diesel shortage, and the risks facing energy markets as the conflict with Iran continues.With four decades of experience in energy futures and derivatives, Kissler offers a perspective from the trading desk, where he helps U.S. oil and natural gas producers protect their revenue through futures, swaps, and options.Kissler argues that today's oil crisis is fundamentally different from previous supply shocks. Rather than a permanent shortage of crude oil, he sees a transportation and geopolitical disruption that could eventually be resolved much faster than markets anticipate. With global oil supplies already running in surplus before the conflict, he warns that restoring Middle Eastern exports could send crude prices sharply lower.The conversation also examines why U.S. producers are increasingly hedging future production, how elevated freight and insurance costs have fractured global oil pricing, and why diesel—not crude oil—may be the most important commodity to watch.Rory and Dennis explore the widening disconnect between WTI and Brent crude, historically elevated diesel refining margins, the effects of disrupted Russian and Middle Eastern fuel exports, and the growing risk that sustained diesel shortages could fuel inflation, higher interest rates, and an economic slowdown.Finally, they discuss whether China and India can help relieve the refined products shortage, what a diplomatic resolution could mean for oil prices, and the key indicators investors should monitor over the coming months.

Oil Ground Up host Rory Johnston welcomes Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, for an in-depth discussion of the rapidly changing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, and the extraordinary costs now reshaping global oil markets.Madani explains how TankerTrackers uses satellite imagery, vessel identification, and on-the-ground intelligence to track oil tankers operating with their AIS transponders switched off. With hundreds of vessels moving through increasingly opaque shipping routes, traditional tanker-tracking data may be missing critical barrels.The conversation examines how Saudi Arabia is adapting its export strategy between the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, why Iranian crude exports have largely stalled, and how tanker operators continue moving oil despite missile and drone attacks.Rory and Samir also explore the explosion in tanker freight rates, the growing fragmentation of global oil markets, the challenges of restoring refined product supplies, and whether the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could mark another turning point in the conflict.

What happens to the global oil market when the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for months, tanker shipping costs explode, and China dramatically reduces its crude imports?In this episode of Oil Ground Up, host Rory Johnston welcomes Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and co-author of The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources, for an in-depth discussion of the extraordinary forces reshaping global oil markets.With Brent crude trading around $106 per barrel at the time of recording, Blas explains why the oil crisis has not produced the $200 oil prices or global economic collapse many initially feared. A major reason? China's dramatic retreat from the seaborne crude market, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and commodity traders finding increasingly creative ways to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz.The conversation examines the economics and dangers of tanker shuttles operating through the Persian Gulf, how soaring freight rates are fragmenting the once-global oil market into regional markets, and why some traders are earning extraordinary margins while taking enormous risks.Rory and Javier also discuss the longer-term consequences for oil demand, strategic stockpiling, diesel markets, and the future of OPEC following the UAE's departure.

What happens when geopolitical risk stops being theoretical and begins physically reshaping global oil flows?On this episode of Oil Ground Up, Rory Johnston is joined by Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, for a wide-ranging discussion on the collision between geopolitics, energy policy and physical commodity markets. Drawing on a career spanning power, natural gas, oil trading and hedge funds, Michelle explains how she now works at the intersection of market data and government policy—and why understanding the consequences of policy decisions has become increasingly important for energy markets.The conversation begins with the return of the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Michelle argues that the shale revolution fundamentally changed how markets priced geopolitical disruptions, creating years in which supply shocks from Libya, Russia, the Middle East and elsewhere struggled to sustain higher prices. Today, she believes that dynamic is changing.Rory and Michelle then tackle the debate surrounding Kpler's Strait of Hormuz tanker data. Michelle explains how Kpler combines AIS, satellite imagery and people at ports to track vessels. Despite flows approaching pre-war levels, product exports remain constrained, U.S. naval escorts are not a sustainable long-term solution, and confidence in the Strait has yet to be fully restored.The discussion then turns to the increasingly acute global diesel shortage and the limited options available to policymakers. Could Europe release strategic diesel inventories? Could China increase product exports? Could shipping regulations be temporarily relaxed to free additional diesel supply? And could the Trump administration restrict U.S. diesel exports—or use them as leverage to pressure Europe into releasing its own inventories?Michelle lays out the potential consequences of each option and explains why she sees an outright U.S. diesel export ban as less likely than Washington using energy as a form of economic statecraft. She assigns a 50% probability to the U.S. pressuring Europe to release more inventories, 25% to an export ban and 25% to allowing the market to solve the imbalance itself.This is a deep dive into oil markets, diesel, Hormuz, tanker tracking, strategic reserves and the increasingly complicated relationship between energy markets and geopolitics.

North America is suddenly facing a wave of new oil pipeline proposals—but which projects actually make commercial sense, and which are being driven by energy security and geopolitics?On this episode of Oil Ground Up, Rory Johnston is joined by Rob Wilson, President of East Daley Analytics, for a deep dive into the rapidly changing North American oil infrastructure landscape. They begin with the latest resurrection of Keystone XL and explain how the proposed Prairie Connector and Bridger Pipeline system could move more Canadian crude through Cushing and ultimately toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Wilson explains why the project has commercial backing—and how adding more Canadian heavy crude could displace lighter U.S. barrels and create new infrastructure constraints elsewhere in the system. The conversation expands into the growing competition between commercially driven pipelines and strategically motivated projects. Rory and Rob discuss Trans Mountain expansion opportunities, Enbridge Mainline optimization, a potential new Canadian West Coast pipeline, and whether Canada can realistically produce enough incremental oil to fill all the proposed capacity.They also examine the return of Venezuelan heavy crude and whether it poses a meaningful threat to Canadian barrels in U.S. refineries. Wilson argues that existing pipeline infrastructure makes Canadian crude difficult to displace in the Midwest, while Venezuelan supply is more likely to compete with Mexican, Colombian and Middle Eastern heavy barrels on the Gulf Coast. Finally, the discussion turns to the Permian Basin, where Rob sees a potentially overlooked problem developing. While enormous amounts of natural gas takeaway capacity have been built, crude pipeline additions have lagged. If high oil prices accelerate Permian production, existing pipelines could approach their limits and create a new crude egress bottleneck as early as 2027.

Rory Johnston returns to Oil Ground Up with David Wech, Chief Economist at Vortexa, for a deep dive into one of the most complicated oil markets in recent memory. With crude and refined products moving through increasingly opaque trade routes, Rory and David examine what tanker data is actually telling us about oil on water, the Strait of Hormuz, Russian exports, diesel shortages, China and the changing global flow of barrels. David explains why the global market can simultaneously have plenty of theoretical crude supply while still experiencing severe regional shortages and logistical bottlenecks. They discuss declining U.S. crude exports, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining and export infrastructure, and why diesel may currently be the tightest part of the entire oil complex. The conversation then turns to China, where rising refinery utilization and product exports could be bearish for diesel while increasing China's demand for crude. David also explains how the loss of Iranian barrels, competition for Russian crude, and reduced Atlantic Basin flows into Asia could create another period of significant crude tightness if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover as expected. Finally, Rory and David dig into the challenge of tracking “dark” tanker movements through Hormuz, why short-term transit estimates can be misleading, and the emergence of a shuttle-tanker system moving crude out of the Persian Gulf. David lays out his outlook for the coming months—including the possibility that renewed geopolitical escalation could collide with an Asian market increasingly positioned for higher Middle Eastern supply.

Jeff Currie joins Rory Johnston on the Oil Ground Up Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on commodity price discovery, the changing structure of energy markets, and why today's geopolitical environment is unlike anything investors have faced in decades. Together they examine the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets, and why volatility—not price direction—has become the defining feature of modern commodity investing. Jeff also shares his long-term outlook on deglobalization, energy security, electrification, and the structural forces he believes will continue to reshape global commodity markets for years to come. It's an insightful discussion that blends macroeconomics, market structure, and real-world trading experience to explain what comes next for oil and commodities.

Gregory Brew returns to the Oil Ground Up Podcast to examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and what it means for global energy markets. Gregory and Rory Johnston discuss the fragile status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's shifting negotiating strategy, the future of U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf, and why shipping flows remain well below pre-war levels despite the end of active hostilities. The conversation also explores the internal dynamics of Iran's new leadership, the role of Israel in shaping the next phase of regional tensions, and why the current period may represent a long-term transition rather than a return to the old status quo. Finally, they consider what this new geopolitical reality means for oil prices, global supply chains, and the growing risk premium facing energy markets over the coming years.

Rory Johnston welcomes maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano to Oil Ground Up for a deep dive into the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and what it means for global oil markets. Together, they examine why commercial shipping ground to a halt, how tanker operators are weighing risk versus reward, and why reopening one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is far more complicated than simply declaring it open. The conversation also explores Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the challenges of clearing sea mines, crew shortages, and the logistical hurdles that could keep oil flows below pre-conflict levels for months. Sal explains why shipping—not just oil prices—holds the key to understanding the next phase of this geopolitical crisis, and why supply chains may never return to the way they were before the conflict began.

Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran’s leverage over global energy flows, the growing disconnect between physical oil fundamentals and financial markets, and why many traders may still be underestimating the long-term consequences of this disruption. Rory and Bob also explore what reopening Hormuz could realistically look like, why inventories and shipping flows remain critical, and how this crisis may permanently reshape investment in global hydrocarbons. From oil demand destruction and rising geopolitical premiums to the future of North American energy dominance, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive macro discussions yet on the evolving global energy landscape.