ODI | Think Change

Climate disasters are intensifying globally, with vulnerable nations facing disproportionate impacts despite minimal contributions to global emissions. From prolonged droughts in East Africa to intensifying cyclones in the Pacific, these events reveal a troubling paradox: As the Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate demonstrates, countries must borrow to recover from disasters, yet face financial systems that: Penalise them for climate risks they didn't create Exacerbate vulnerabilities through rising sovereign defaults Fail to support long-term resilience investments This episode examines three critical dimensions: Systemic reforms needed to align debt frameworks with climate reality Distributional challenges preventing finance from reaching frontline communities Innovative proposals to achieve climate justice through financial transformation Guests Moritz Kraemer, Chief Economist, LBBW; Co-Chair, Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate Yussuf Hussein, Climate Finance Advisor, Kenya’s Special Envoy on Climate Change Sarah Colenbrander, Director, Climate and Sustainability Programme, ODI Global  Resources: Tackling the Vicious Circle: The Interim Report of the Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate Healthy Debt on a Healthy Planet: Towards a virtuous circle of sovereign debt, nature and climate resilience Indebted: how to support countries heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues to secure long-term prosperity 

Climate impacts are continuing to intensify. More severe storms, droughts, floods and heatwaves are inflicting devastation on the most vulnerable communities – those who also bear the least responsibility for the climate crisis.But as the need for climate action becomes ever more urgent, international aid is retreating. USAID has been dismantled, whilst wealthy countries across Europe have slashed their aid budgets.This episode asks what the aid cuts mean for the most climate-vulnerable countries. With fiscal space tightening and multilateralism on the decline, guests discuss how governments and international organisations can incentivise more private sector investment, scale up climate finance and channel it to where it’s most needed. We also hear what impact regional partnerships could have in delivering meaningful climate action in this new global landscape.GuestsSara Pantuliano (Chief Executive, ODI Global)Hans Peter Lankes (Deputy Chief Executive, ODI Global)Sara Schonhardt (international climate reporter, Politico)Sir Nicholas Stern (Chair, Grantham Research Institute)Related resourcesA Fair Share of Climate Finance (Project, ODI Global)Revitalising finance for adaptation: what role for the multilateral climate process? (Working paper, ODI Global)Vulnerable nations on the brink: the double shock of aid cuts and US tariff increases (Insight, ODI Global)The relationship between climate action and poverty reduction (Report, LSE)Small change? Our projections for the conflict blind spot in climate finance by 2030 (Insight, ODI Global)

At a time of major geopolitical turbulence, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. Long regarded as a pillar of stability and multilateralism, the continent's role in today's increasingly divided world is being tested in numerous ways – as are its key institutions.There is a new fragility to Europe's external relationships – underscored by Trump's threats to impose tariffs on EU imports, and by disagreements on security guarantees for Ukraine.This episode dissects Europe's changing role and influence in the world today. Experts explore how European nations can come together to face external threats effectively, and identify some immediate opportunities for change.Among our guests is ODI Europe’s Board Chair, Ambassador João Vale de Almeida, who shares ideas put forward in his thought-provoking new book The Divorce of Nations: A Diplomat’s Inside View as the Global Order Collapses. We also hear from historian and political writer Timothy Garton Ash, and Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalTimothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies, University of OxfordAnand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs, King’s College London & Director, UK in a Changing EuropeJoão Vale de Almeida, Chair of the ODI Europe Board and a former European Union Ambassador to the United States and the United NationsRelated resourcesThe Divorce of Nations: A Diplomat’s Inside View as the Global Order Collapses (João Vale de Almeida, The History Press, 2025)Homelands: A Personal History of Europe (Timothy Garton Ash, Penguin Random House, 2023)How is Ukraine redefining global security? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)Europe and the new world order: an updated approach to foreign engagement (Briefing paper, ODI Global)Can ‘the West’ be trusted? The future of European humanitarian aid (Insight, ODI Global)Navigating aid and national interest in Ukraine: the development toolbox of European donors (Insight, ODI Global)

Since 2011, Syria has been ravaged by conflict, foreign interventions and political fragmentation – leaving millions displaced and communities in crisis.But amidst the devastation, a new conversation is taking shape.Just months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a new interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa has formed. A recent poll shows 70% of Syrians feel hopeful, but that hope is colliding with hard realities.More than 1,300 people – many believed to be civilians – have been killed in Syria’s worst violence since the fall of the Assad regime, as clashes erupt between forces loyal to the new government and Assad holdouts. Meanwhile, reconstruction is stalled. Western sanctions, unpaid civil servants, and new US tariffs risk deepening the crisis.In this episode, we ask whether this fragile but hopeful moment for Syria can endure. Can international partners support recovery without repeating the mistakes of the past? And how can we centre the voices of Syrians in the process of rebuilding their country?GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalSana Kikhia, Executive Director, Syrian Legal Development Programme (SLDP) Leen Fouad, Senior Research Officer, Humanitarian Policy Group (HPG), ODI Global Amy Rodgers, Coordinator, Middle East Durable Solutions Platform Related resourcesSyria’s chance to build better, not backward (Insight, ODI Global)Lifting sanctions on Syria: a bumpy path (Insight, ODI Global)Tens of thousands of people forcibly disappeared: will the international community step up for Syrians? (Insight, ODI Global)Syria's pursuit of justice: navigating accountability amidst ongoing turmoil (Insight, ODI Global)Revolution and rupture: humanitarianism and human rights in Syria and Myanmar (Event video, ODI Global)

Minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth are not just commodities. They are strategic assets which are shaping global power and the future of the energy transition.As US-China trade tensions escalate, countries across Africa (and elsewhere) where these minerals are found are now renegotiating their role in an increasingly fragmented global economy.This episode asks how Africa’s mineral wealth can truly benefit its people and future generations. Guests discuss the challenges countries face in adding value domestically, and whether there’s an opportunity to push for a more equitable, sustainable governance of the mineral supply chain.Drawing on the latest developments in the South China sea, Greenland and the new US-Ukraine minerals deal, we also hear how resource scarcity, trade, and geopolitical and economic interests are closely intertwined today against a backdrop of ongoing violence and instability.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalAkim Daouda, Founder and CEO, Mwaana Inc.Rebecca Nadin, Director, Global Risks and Resilience team, ODI GlobalSilas Olan’g, Africa Energy Transition Advisor, Natural Resource Governance InstituteRelated resourcesThe critical minerals race to net zero (Event recording, ODI Global)Critical minerals, critical moment: Africa’s role in the AI revolution (Insight, ODI Global)The ‘strategic mirage’ of Africa’s green minerals wealth (Insight, ODI Global)Why China is seeking greater presence in Africa – the strategy behind its financial deals (Insight, ODI Global)

With economic uncertainty, rising debt burdens, and a growing share of the world’s poorest people living in fragile contexts, the stakes for the upcoming 4th Financing for Development Conference (FfD4) in Seville have never been higher.According to a recent OECD report, the gap between development financing needs and available resources could reach $6.4 trillion by 2030 if the global financing system isn’t significantly overhauled.The conference in June present a pivotal opportunity to ignite reform. It's a vital forum where UN members, international institutions, businesses, and civil society come together at the highest level to rethink how we fund global development.In this episode, we dissect the key questions set to shape discussions at FfD4. How can we mobilise the trillions needed to meet the SDGs? How can the global financial architecture be made more inclusive and responsive? And what bold steps must be taken to unlock investment where it’s needed most?Development finance experts share insights on multilateral development bank reform, the role of concessional finance, and opportunities to build a more sustainable, equitable future.  GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalMónica Colomer, Ambassador at Large for Financing for Development, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation, Spain   Alvaro Lario, President, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)Annalisa Prizzon, Principal Research Fellow, ODI Global  Related resourcesDevelopment finance needs major overhaul to achieve global goals (OECD report)Financing development at a crossroads: What's at stake and what reforms are needed? (Development Policy Review)ODI Global at the Spring Meetings (resources hub)Are Southern-led MDBs the future of development finance? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)MDB Insights Spring Meetings 2025 (Newsletter, ODI Global)Unlocking the potential of blended concessional finance: making aid work harder (Event video, ODI Global)Maximising operational effectiveness and impact: key priorities for multilateral development banks (Report, ODI Global)

Development finance is no longer just about aid. It’s about power, priorities, and who gets to decide.For decades, institutions like the World Bank and IMF have set the agenda, with high-income countries holding the reins. But a shift is underway. Southern-led multilateral development banks (MDBs) – where borrowing nations are also the majority shareholders – are rewriting the rules.These banks, like CAF (Development Bank of Latin America) and the Trade and Development Bank (TDB) Group, bring something different to the table: speed, flexibility, and a laser focus on local needs. But they also face hurdles: higher borrowing costs, limited global visibility, and the challenge of financing a just climate transition in economies still grappling with poverty.With the Spring Meetings taking place later this month, this episode dives into the rise of these institutions. Are they the future of development finance? Can they complement – or even challenge – traditional MDBs? And what reforms are needed to unlock their full potential?GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalAlejandra Botero, Director of Strategy and Development, CAFChris Humphrey, Senior Research Associate, ODI GlobalAdmassu Tadesse, Group President and Managing Director, TDB GroupRelated resourcesODI Global resources on multilateral development banksSouthern-led multilateral channels for climate finance (Working paper, ODI Global)What makes an MDB an MDB? Southern-led multilateral banks and the sovereign debt crisis (Working paper, ODI Global)Climate-smart reform of multilateral development banks: priorities for the G20 (Policy brief, ODI Global)Investing for resilience: a panel discussion with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank President Jin Liqun (Event video, ODI Global)What do borrowing countries think of MDB reform? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)

Trade policies are more than economic levers. Today they are instruments of influence, competition and – at times – conflict. We have seen how Trump’s recent tariff hikes on Mexico, Canada and China have heightened geopolitical tensions.The global trade system is also undergoing a deeper transformation. Countries are diversifying supply chains and rethinking alliances. Regional trade agreements are gaining momentum. Take the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is vital for strengthening Africa’s resilience. This episode takes stock of this changing global trade landscape. What direction is it heading? Are we on the brink of a new era of economic fragmentation, or can innovative trade mechanisms and agreements provide stability?GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalPamela Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director, International Trade Centre.Teddy Soobramanien, Chief Executive Officer, COMESA Business CouncilJodie Keane, Senior Research Fellow, ODI GlobalRelated resourcesUS implements sweeping reciprocal tariffs, igniting global economic challenges (Insight, ODI Global)Responding to Trump’s tariffs: the EU needs a new trade weapon to protect its economic security (Insight, ODI Global)Supporting Investment and Trade in Africa (Project, ODI Global)Implementing the Digital Trade Protocol of the African Continental Free Trade Area: expected impacts, early experiences and challenges ahead (Publication, ODI Global)Remaking global trade: how does the UK measure up to the Villars Framework? (Insight, ODI Global)

As the world shifts toward a more regionally driven order, where power and security are dictated by strength rather than law, multilateralism faces an existential crisis.This has been made strikingly clear by recent events in the US. Oscillating between retreat and selective engagement, the US now sees global cooperation in transactional terms – as a business not a shared responsibility.This shift has created uncertainty and left a vacuum. From Africa to Asia, nations are adapting. Some are welcoming a less interventionist US, others are seizing opportunities in a lawless landscape.This episode examines what’s at stake for multilateralism as this new global order unravels. We hear what practical steps that can be taken to strengthen and reinvent multilateralism, including through a new coalition of smaller powers. Our guests also examine the role of China, and the significance of next year’s UN Secretary-General election.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI GlobalLord Mark Malloch-Brown, Advisor, Bretton Woods at 80 initiativeAmbassador Antônio Patriota, Brazil’s Ambassador to the UKYunnan Chen, ODI Global Research FellowRelated resourcesOut of the rubble (Insight, ODI Global)Reimagining multilateralism: seizing the opportunity for change (Insight, ODI Global)Navigating fragility: the new multilateral agenda (Event video and podcast, ODI Global)What are the costs and impacts of shutting down USAID? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)ODI Global's work on China

Ukraine stands at a pivotal point as its war with Russia enters its third year. With high-stakes talks between the US and Russia taking place in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine finds itself excluded from crucial discussions, which raises alarms in Kyiv and Europe. As Western unity begins to fracture, the debate intensifies over whether to prioritise negotiations or continue military support. With NATO under increasing pressure, shifting US positions and growing concerns from Europe about future defence strategies, can Ukraine harness its resources for US support for peace talks and reconstruction, or will they further complicate its future? What will be the far-reaching implications for global security and economic stability?In this episode of Think Change, our host and Chief Executive Sara Pantualiano was joined by: Nathalie Tocci (Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali) Ann Linde (ODI Europe Board Member and former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Nordic Cooperation)  Olena Borodyna (Senior Geopolitical Risks Advisor, ODI Global)  Related resourcesNavigating humanitarian dilemmas in the Ukraine crisis (Publication, ODI Global) As the war grinds on, political risks in Ukraine are heightening (Insight, ODI Global) The systemic impacts of the war in Ukraine: a triple shock (Insight, ODI Global) A war on many fronts: disinformation around the Russia-Ukraine war (Insight, ODI Global) Think Change episode 3: will the war in Ukraine cause a food crisis? (Think Change Podcast, ODI Global) Navigating aid and national interest in Ukraine: the development toolbox of European donors (Insight, ODI Global) Supporting Ukraine is costly – but Europe should be clear on the risks of letting Russia win (Insight, ODI Global) Securing Europe's Future: financing defence, supporting Ukraine, and navigating the Russia-China challenge (Insight, ODI Global) Condemnation of Russia’s invasion isn’t enough – Ukraine needs stronger European support now (Insight, ODI Global) Economic vulnerability to the Russia–Ukraine War: which low- and middle-income countries are most vulnerable? (Publication, ODI Global)