Money Tree Investing

The ​busiest week of the quarter just passed as we talk the aftermath of the midterm elections and why political outcomes have less influence on the stock market than most investors believe. We share how markets price in expectations months ahead of time and examine the recent volatility, particularly the sharp sell-off in technology and AI stocks, potential institutional repositioning, and growing concerns about data center expansion. We also discuss the possibility of a recession, inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and why investors should remain cautious rather than chase market gains. We also talk about the historical market performance following midterm elections, the importance of managing expectations and maintaining a disciplined investment strategy, and why gold may be losing momentum despite continued investor interest. Today we discuss...  Why the midterm election results were largely anticipated by the stock market and already priced in months ahead of time. How political emotions often drive investment decisions and lead investors to overlook market fundamentals. Why politicians receive too much credit and blame for stock market performance compared to corporations and broader economic forces. The recent market volatility following the election and what may have caused the sharp swings in stock prices. How institutional investors, forced liquidations, and portfolio repositioning can trigger major market sell-offs without a clear news event. Why investors should wait for confirmation of the market's direction rather than make investment decisions based on a few days of volatility. Historical stock market performance following midterm elections and what history suggests about the next six months. Why the market's recent sideways movement, inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions could signal a greater risk of recession. How recessions typically follow stock market declines rather than cause them, as markets often price in economic weakness ahead of time. Why investors should avoid chasing returns and recognize that recent years of unusually strong stock market performance are not normal. The importance of having a diversified financial plan that accounts for both strong and weak market environments. Why gold may struggle to gain momentum despite continued investor interest and its recent price decline. Why gold should be viewed as a long-term hedge against financial uncertainty rather than a short-term speculative investment. How gold performed during the 2008 financial crisis and why its behavior during a future recession remains uncertain. Why patience, risk management, and discipline may be more valuable than trying to force returns in an uncertain market.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/busiest-week-of-the-quarter-867 

Alex Chompff joins the show to discuss the AI boom and the opportunities it creates, including how it's transforming the way people work, build businesses, and invest. Alex explains how individuals can use AI to increase productivity, create applications, and generate value without needing extensive technical expertise. We also explore the investment opportunities emerging across the AI ecosystem, including large language models, semiconductors, data centers, electricity, and early-stage private companies, while examining the risks of excessive valuations and the challenges of investing in technologies that may take years to mature. We talk how AI could transform employment, the possibility of machines improving themselves through recursive breakthroughs, the limitations of human understanding of AI, and whether artificial intelligence could eventually create an economy defined by abundance rather than scarcity. We discuss...  Alex Chompff shares his journey from working in technology and venture capital to becoming a professional investor and AI entrepreneur. How Silicon Valley evolved from a culture of building innovative products into an increasingly finance-driven technology industry. Why artificial intelligence creates opportunities for individuals to build applications, automate tasks, and generate value without extensive technical expertise. How AI adoption could increase individual productivity and create trillions of dollars in additional global economic value. Whether AI will produce a handful of dominant companies like Microsoft and Amazon or create a more diverse competitive landscape. Why there are 40% fewer publicly traded companies in the United States than there were 30 years ago and how regulation and private capital have contributed to the shift. How the growth of private equity and private credit has changed the financing landscape and reduced the need for companies to go public. The investment opportunities and economic challenges surrounding data center expansion, including the possibility of building data centers in space. Whether AI-driven productivity gains will benefit employees through higher wages and shorter working hours or primarily accrue to companies and shareholders. How recursive AI development could allow artificial intelligence systems to improve and build future versions of themselves with less human involvement. What limitations AI may face compared with human intelligence, particularly when it comes to creativity, judgment, taste, and original thinking. How the AI boom could follow a familiar technology cycle of early excitement, excessive investment, market correction, and eventual widespread productivity gains. Why humans still have difficulty understanding how AI systems work internally, including how billions of parameters interact to produce accurate or inaccurate results. Why AI hallucinations and confidently incorrect answers make testing, verification, and understanding the technology's limitations especially important. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-ai-boom-alex-chompff-866 

Are we looking at a stock market crash... or is something else coming? Today we talk the growing pressure on technology stocks as major companies report earnings disappointments and investors begin questioning the profitability of the AI boom. We explain why the AI-driven market downturn is more likely to resemble the prolonged sell-off of the early 2000s than a sudden financial crash, breaking down how liquidity crises and financial contagions can trigger broader market collapses. We also examine the risks in private equity and private credit, the importance of monitoring money flows between sectors, and why the current market environment does not show the warning signs of an imminent systemic crisis. Last, we talk AI's potential impact on employment, financial services, portfolio management, and human thinking. We discuss...  Growing concerns about AI valuations and whether the massive investments in artificial intelligence can generate enough revenue to justify current expectations. Why a potential AI-driven market downturn is more likely to resemble the prolonged dot-com bust of the early 2000s than the sudden financial crash of 2008. Growing risks in private equity and private credit, including illiquid investments, frozen funds, questionable valuations, and investors struggling to access their money. The rotation of money out of technology stocks and into defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities, and what it signals about overall market health. Increasing competition among major AI companies, including OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Anthropic, and the challenges of turning AI technology into sustainable profits. Cryptocurrency security concerns following a major theft involving Binance and questions about how future technological advances could threaten digital assets. The possibility of creating synthetic gold through nuclear fusion technology and whether technological advancements could eventually challenge gold's role as a store of value. How AI could transform financial services by automating administrative tasks and research while leaving portfolio management and client relationships dependent on human judgment. The potential risks of using AI to manage investment portfolios, particularly if investors begin following identical strategies and create new vulnerabilities in the markets. Why critical thinking, creativity, adaptability, and human relationships will remain valuable as artificial intelligence becomes more integrated into everyday life.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/stock-market-crash-865 

Dan Rasmussen joins us to discuss the secrets that the global markets are keeping from you. He shares about the investment opportunities in Japan and South Korea as corporate governance reforms push companies to improve capital allocation and shareholder returns. He explains how these changes could unlock value in undervalued stocks across Asia and why investors should diversify beyond the AI-driven U.S. market. We also explore AI investment risks, slow technology adoption, excessive data center spending, small-cap stocks, rising interest rates, opportunities in fixed income, gold, and emerging markets. We discuss...  Dan Rasmussen explains how Japan's corporate governance reforms are unlocking shareholder value through stock buybacks, higher dividends, and improved capital allocation. South Korea's corporate governance reforms aim to address family-controlled businesses and improve protections for minority shareholders. Investors can diversify beyond U.S. stocks and AI by exploring undervalued opportunities in Japan, South Korea, and other Asian markets. AI adoption may take longer than investors expect, creating a mismatch between the rapid depreciation of computing hardware and the slower economic benefits of AI implementation. AI companies face significant risks from intense competition, open-source models, falling costs, and massive spending on increasingly powerful models. The AI infrastructure boom could resemble the fiber-optic buildout of the late 1990s, when infrastructure eventually proved useful but took years to generate sufficient economic returns. Major technology companies are investing unprecedented amounts in AI, raising concerns about whether future profits can justify their combined capital expenditures. The current U.S. small-cap rally may be driven by speculative, unprofitable companies rather than improving economic conditions, making the trend less attractive. Small-cap stocks can offer compelling opportunities when economic conditions recover, particularly when beaten-down companies benefit from improving business conditions. Rising bond yields have made investment-grade corporate bonds and short- to intermediate-term fixed income more attractive. Interest rates could remain elevated until nominal economic growth slows enough to make current bond yields more attractive. U.S. elections may have limited influence on investment decisions, while political changes in emerging markets such as Brazil could create significant opportunities. Brazil could become an attractive investment opportunity if a shift toward more business-friendly policies improves investor sentiment and asset valuations. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-big-secret-the-global-markets-are-hiding-from-you 

The AI bubble is popping and we're going to tell you when! Today we talk market volatility, and the difference between liquidity and solvency crises. We also explain why a AI market downturn is more likely to trigger a prolonged recession than an immediate crash, and examine the weakening big tech stocks, market rotation into defensive sectors, rising interest rates, and potential financial risks from excessive borrowing. We also dive into the challenges facing the Federal Reserve, the threat of stagflation, and mounting stress in the housing market, particularly in areas affected by technology layoffs, high mortgage rates, and immigration policy changes.  We discuss...  Why an AI bubble bursting could lead to a prolonged recession rather than an immediate market crash. Why investors should focus on how stocks react to earnings rather than whether companies beat expectations. How market rotation from big tech into defensive sectors like consumer staples and health care can signal changing investor sentiment. Why weakening technology stocks and unusual market behavior are raising concerns about the sustainability of AI valuations. How major technology companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure and the potential risks of those spending commitments. Why rising interest rates could increase financial stress for companies that need to refinance debt. How the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision is complicated by persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and economic uncertainty. Why stagflation could create a prolonged period of weak market returns and economic hardship. How weakening housing markets, technology layoffs, and higher mortgage rates are putting pressure on homeowners in parts of the United States. How government bailouts during past financial crises have helped prevent broader economic damage while raising questions about accountability. Why investors should watch for signs of recession and changing market conditions rather than assuming a crash is imminent. How diversification into defensive investments and careful portfolio preparation can help investors navigate prolonged market downturns.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-bubble-is-popping-863 

Tiffany Cianci discusses the growing risks in private equity and private credit, including excessive debt, questionable valuations, limited transparency, and struggling investment funds that cannot exit their holdings. She explains how continuation funds and shadow banking may be concealing financial problems while shifting risks onto pension funds and everyday investors. We also examine speculative AI investments, unprofitable data centers, rising borrowing costs, and the potential consequences of allowing private equity and private credit into more 401(k) plans. Tiffany shares practical steps investors can take to question their retirement plan trustees, evaluate investment risks, and advocate for greater accountability. We discuss...  The growing risks in private equity and private credit, including excessive debt, questionable valuations, and limited transparency. How private equity firms are increasingly struggling to sell their investments, leading to a growing backlog of unsold businesses and greater reliance on continuation funds. Continuation funds can create conflicts of interest when firms move assets between funds to provide liquidity to existing investors. Weak oversight and limited disclosure make it difficult for investors to assess the true value and risks of private equity and private credit investments. How private equity firms use leverage and repeated acquisitions to increase debt burdens and potentially push businesses toward bankruptcy. Rising interest rates and adjustable-rate debt are putting additional pressure on private equity-backed companies and private credit lenders. The expansion of private credit has created a shadow banking system that operates with fewer safeguards and transparency requirements than traditional banks. How allowing private equity and private credit into more 401(k) plans could shift investment losses onto everyday Americans and retirement savers. High management and performance fees can significantly reduce returns for individual investors compared with traditional index funds. Pension funds are exposed to private market risks, with reported returns sometimes falling far short of the estimates used to justify investments. Concerns about financial arrangements between AI companies, chipmakers, and data center operators that may obscure underlying risks. How corporate consolidation and lobbying can create monopolies that harm small businesses and consumers. How regulation can be used by dominant corporations to limit competition and drive smaller businesses out of the market. The need to enforce antitrust laws and improve oversight without imposing disproportionate regulatory burdens on small businesses. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Greg Dupont | Advocate Wealth Solutions   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/private-equity-tiffany-cianci-862

The world is ending tomorrow! Or maybe it was the next day... We talk the risks of AI hype and the fear surrounding it, with many thinking it may be used by technology companies and politicians to justify government regulation, limit competition, and protect valuations. We also discuss it's potential benefits and limitations, the importance of measuring real productivity gains, the risks of over-reliance on AI in education and professional decision-making, and why AI should enhance human capabilities rather than replace critical thinking. We also talk the including the growing gap between mortgage payments and rents, economic growth forecasts, concentrated stock market returns, the relative appeal of bonds, real estate valuations, and historical election-year market patterns. Market weakness beneath rising indexes signals an unhealthy market, so keep your investments diversified, watch your risk management, and be patient rather than chasing expensive AI stocks or taking excessive risks.  We discuss...  How fear surrounding AI may be used by technology companies and politicians to influence public opinion and justify government regulation. Whether AI companies are exaggerating existential risks to accelerate development, attract investment, and discourage competition. That AI should be viewed as a software tool rather than a human-like entity capable of independently taking over the world. How AI could transform existing software businesses by integrating new capabilities rather than making established companies obsolete. Why AI is particularly effective at repetitive tasks and iteration, including coding, scientific research, drug development, and generating creative content. Why businesses should measure AI's actual return on investment rather than assume that adopting the technology automatically improves performance. Why AI should support human capabilities rather than replace the effort and experience needed to develop expertise. Whether AI companies should be held legally responsible for harm caused by their products and whether liability protections undermine accountability. Concerns about AI companies entering biological research and the potential risks of developing powerful technologies without sufficient safeguards. Caution against relying on AI to make investment decisions, arguing that it can assist with research but remains limited in qualitative analysis and judgment. The widening gap between mortgage payments and rental costs, noting that mortgage payments have risen much faster than rents and wages since 2019. International GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, questioning the assumptions behind projections for Iran's economic recovery. The concentration of stock market returns, with a small number of companies accounting for most of the S&P 500's gains. How higher Treasury yields make bonds more competitive with stocks and provide investors with an alternative source of income. The relationship between Treasury yields and rental property capitalization rates, suggesting that higher bond yields could pressure real estate valuations. The sharp decline in mortgage applications from pandemic-era peaks as housing affordability deteriorates. The growing influence of AI-related stocks in the S&P 500 and the risks associated with elevated valuations and speculative enthusiasm. The broad weakness beneath rising market indexes, noting that most Russell 3000 stocks have experienced declines of at least 10%. Why healthy markets typically feature broad participation in rising prices rather than gains concentrated in a handful of stocks.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/world-is-ending-tomorrow 

John Demartini discusses how understanding your personal values can help you build confidence, find purpose, and achieve financial success. He shares his journey overcoming dyslexia and learning challenges, explaining how obstacles can become opportunities when you focus on your strengths and intrinsic motivations. John explores why people often prioritize immediate gratification over long-term financial independence, the importance of investing and compound growth, and how aligning your goals with your highest values can improve decision-making and fulfillment. He also explains how to identify your most meaningful and productive activities, delegate low-priority tasks, and structure your time around what you do best to create a more successful and rewarding life. We discuss...  John Demartini's journey overcoming dyslexia and learning challenges to become an educator, author, and international speaker. Hw perceived weaknesses and obstacles can become opportunities for personal growth and achievement. How understanding your personal hierarchy of values can reveal what motivates you and helps you succeed. Why people often struggle to achieve their goals when their actions do not align with their true priorities. The difference between intrinsic motivation and relying on external pressure or encouragement to succeed. Why people often confuse the desire for financial independence with the desire for an expensive lifestyle and immediate gratification. How investing, compound interest, patience, and deferred gratification can help build lasting wealth. The importance of letting your money work for you rather than becoming financially burdened by your lifestyle. Strategies for identifying your strengths, building confidence, and choosing career paths that align with your values. How comparing yourself to others and pursuing goals that do not reflect your priorities can lead to frustration and self-doubt. How understanding your values can help young people identify their interests and make more informed career decisions. How prioritizing meaningful, high-value activities and delegating lower-priority tasks helped him grow his business and increase profitability. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/build-wealth-that-matters-john-demartini-860 

Zero jobs will be lost to AI and we will tell you the reason why as we discuss the future of AI and the growing risks of investing in the AI boom. We talk how AI could improve existing software, why specialized robots may be more practical than humanoid designs, and how overhyped expectations could lead to an AI market bubble. We also examine the concerns about AI companies lobbying for regulations that could limit competition, the risks of relying on AI for learning and communication, and the dangers of overbuilding data centers and infrastructure. Investors should be warned about excessive AI exposure, concentrated portfolios, and rising interest rates. We discuss...  Whether AI will eliminate jobs or primarily change how people work. The AI boom compared to the dot-com bubble and how excessive investment can lead to overbuilding and market crashes. How AI could improve existing software platforms by making company data easier to access and analyze. Whether expensive AI models can maintain their competitive advantages as open-source alternatives improve. How AI companies may use fear-based marketing and regulatory lobbying to protect their businesses from competition. How excessive reliance on AI can weaken critical thinking, learning, writing skills, and knowledge retention. Practical ways to use AI for research, productivity, and data analysis without becoming overly dependent on it. The AI bubble as a risk to investing, unrealistic growth expectations, excessive infrastructure spending, and potential financial risks. Concentrated investment portfolios and the risks of putting too much money into a single company or technology sector. Weakening real estate markets and how rising interest rates are putting pressure on property valuations. Why investors should compare the returns on risky investments with relatively safe U.S. Treasury yields. Higher interest rates could put further pressure on stock prices and other income-producing investments. The importance of managing risk, questioning market hype, and maintaining a cautious approach to investing.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/zero-jobs-will-be-lost-to-ai-859 

David Miller discusses the unexpected strategy that can win when stocks are at their lowest. David shares about trend following, managed futures, and the importance of combining investment strategies that perform differently across market environments. He explains how Catalyst Mutual Funds uses trend following alongside equities to help reduce drawdowns, the challenges of whipsaw markets, and why diversification should mean combining uncorrelated strategies rather than simply owning more stocks. We also talk the impact of the Iran war, oil prices, gold, interest rates, and the upcoming midterm elections on markets.  We discuss...  David Miller shares his journey from an early passion for investing to launching Catalyst Mutual Funds. Catalyst was built around the idea of using free cash flow yield and return on capital to identify attractive companies. Trend following can perform particularly well during major bear markets when traditional equities are struggling. Combining managed futures with equities can create a portfolio with stronger risk-adjusted returns and smaller drawdowns. Investors should think of diversification as combining uncorrelated strategies rather than simply owning more stocks. Mean-reversion strategies can complement trend following by performing better when markets are volatile but lack a clear direction. How oil prices, gold, interest rates, and the Iran war have affected markets in 2026. Why the U.S. economy has been more resilient to higher oil prices because the country is now a major oil exporter. How the upcoming midterm elections could influence U.S. policy, oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. Investors should build portfolios that can perform across different economic and market environments rather than relying on a few high-growth stocks. Combining complementary strategies may be more practical than trying to predict the next Apple or Nvidia. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/strategy-that-can-win-david-miller-858