WisdomTree's Schwartz: Inflation is overstated, productivity underestimated

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a setback all the way down to 4,800 once the uptrend ends. Charles Lewis Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, says that the big discounts investors have seen in closed-end funds will continue, and he likes real estate and term funds as great values for investors to consider now. In the Market Call, Christopher Sargent, portfolio manager at Bradley, Foster & Sargent, makes his debut talking stocks.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.

Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says the current market conditions have made him "much more prone to let my winners run," and that investors should not take a market pushing to all-time highs as some sort of sell signal because in most times -- including today -- new highs are a positive, even if they inspire some nervousness and fear of new heights. Tilson says that investors should focus less on headlines and more on what drives markets, namely a strong economy and growing corporate profits. Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study -- done in honor of Mental Health Awareness Month -- which found that nearly half of American adults say money at least occasionally has a negative impact on their mental health. In the Money Life Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund discusses stocks.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says talk of stagflation and other potential economic woes is overblown, and that the economic data suggests that the economy will overcome the short-term headline distractions to perform reasonably well, even if consumers and investors feel dissatisfied living through periods of higher inflation and lower investment returns. He says the profitability and performance of companies are broadening, and that's happening right now, which should make investors bullish. Also looking at recent market highs as a good sign is Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, who thinks the market will go higher and get through some minor corrections this year, but who sees technical indicators signalling much more significant trouble coming next year and beyond. Plus, research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a study on which cars convey the most "status" to their buyers, and whether there is any real value -- rather than just higher insurance bills -- that comes from the status given those fancy cars.

Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, says investors have pushed the Federal Reserve into a box, to where central bankers will now be cutting rates into an environment of rising unemployment and slowing gross domestic product growth. Historically, he notes, the stock market fears those conditions rather than rewarding it, which means the market will be sorting out that problem through higher volatility while it waits for more certainty from the economy. VanCronkhite says investors should build protection into their portfolios by owning businesses with great balance sheets, moving away from the Magnificent 7 stocks -- which he says will stop moving as a group -- to take advantage of the economic strength that should result in better long-term results once the market digests the Fed's eventual moves sometime in 2025. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisists DoorDash in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent rally is the market betting that it can get better financing and last longer, even though he believes the company remains a zombie stock that will run out of cash in two years time. In the Market Call, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks about his approach to this market, which is heavy on technicals and using stops to buy issues where the trend is turning while getting out of stocks that are moving against the tide.

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that the market has reached a "Maalox Moment," where investors want to be invested but are nervous about the potential for a big drop, and they have to be willing to ride out their choices or they should be taking the safe alternatives of higher yields in fixed income. Stringfellow says that classic buy-and-hold investors need to be more active to feel comfortable today, noting "Just sit back and relax doesn't count." Buck Klintworth, senior portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market's technical indicators are not showing "the major shift that scares investors" in the cards for the rest of this year; Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, says homeowners "did a really good job of locking in low mortgage rates when they were low, and of locking in low fixed rates," which made them the big winners of the rising rate environment, which has created opportunities for bond and mortgage investors now. Plus, financial adviser Mike Salierno discusses the latest data released in Northwestern Mutual's 2024 Planning & Progress Study, which shows that Americans now believe they'll need $1.46 million to retire.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — says that America's fiscal and monetary policies are sending mixed signals, "driving our car hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time." Fiscally, it's the gas, as shown by economic numbers, but the Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes, which makes it hard to figure out what's next, contributing to recent market whipsaw moves. Dover says current conditions suggest that investors should get out of cash and into assets that will do well when the market declines, because he expects a mild downturn and soft market at least until there is more certainty on direction. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi looks at a trendy new actively managed core bond fund for his "ETF of the Week," noting that he thinks that active management for fixed income makes sense in today's interest rate environment, noting that managers can flex into different bond types to make the most of current conditions. In the Market Call, Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, makes his debut, talking individual stocks.

Mike Thompson, portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, sees heightened volatility ahead for the market, but says that recent concerns on big-picture items have seemed to ebb, giving the stock market room to run here. In the Big Interview, Thompson explains his firm's "risk-responsive investing" approach and the tactics it is drawn to in current economic and market conditions. Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, brings his firm's forward-looking, short-term ratings system to the Market Call, and Chuck takes on the latest statements from best-selling author and perma-bear Robert Kiyosaki, who over the weekend was saying that the new crash has begun and gave suggestions -- that Chuck disagrees with -- on how to profit from the massive downturn he is expecting.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she sees the stock market grinding higher through heightened volatility for the rest of the year as the Federal Reserve pushes rate cuts out to December or into 2025. Still, she expects "another shoe to fall" with the economy and the market, though that trouble likely is coming next year or beyond. By comparison, Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, sees the market retesting record high levels in fairly short order, but he worries that the longer-term technical indicators suggest "a rocky two, three, four years" ahead, though he remains positive that equities will be up a decade from now, so that long-term investors should remain in the market through the trouble ahead. Plus, in the Market Call, Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group — publishers of the No-Load Fund*X — talks about riding the wave of what has been winning, and discusses how the winners and losers appear ready to hold their positions for a while longer before conditions change.

Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market.  Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the market now. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner -- long-time columnist at USA Today and most recently financial editor at AARP -- talks about his recent decision to retire, mostly, and what went into making it and what he learned from working with seniors facing the end of their working lives. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Express, which has gone from bad to worse since it was a Danger Zone pick a few years ago, having recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Trainer doesn't see the company being saved in the court, expecting it to complete the journey to zero.