Dean Ball on the Past, Present, and Future of AI

Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Scott Lincicome is the vice president of general economics and trade at Cato. Scott returns to the program to discuss the past, present, and future of Trump’s trade war, the impact of tariffs on the US consumer, myths about globalization, the state of globalization worldwide, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on March 19th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Scott Lincicome on X: @ScottLincicome Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:01) – Cato’s Trade Center (00:04:06) – Current State of Trump’s Trade War (00:14:09) – Trade War Strategy (00:20:48) – Break in the Globalization Trend (00:29:51) – Bilateral Trade Deficit View (00:54:01) – Comparative Advantage (01:00:30) – How to Support Free Trade (001:01:44) – Outro  

Sign up for David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Lyman Stone is a demographer and the director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies. In Lyman’s first appearance on the show, he discusses demographic and marriage decline, the fallacy in the thinking of degrowthers, the benefits of pronatalist policy, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on February 13th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Lyman Stone on X: @LymanStoneKY Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:04) – Lyman Stone’s Career Path (00:04:54) – Demography as a Discipline (00:10:41) – Demographic Decline (00:15:28) – Decline of Marriage (00:32:24) – Degrowthers (00:43:15) – Possible Policy Solutions (00:54:50) – Outro  

Sign up for David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Athanasios Orphanides is a professor at MIT, formerly served at the Federal Reverse for 15 years, and was the Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus. In Athanasios’s first appearance of show he discussed real-time monetary policy rules, their implication on the Fed’s framework review, his natural growth target, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on February 18th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Substack Announcement (00:00:49) – Intro (00:02:24) – Athanasios’ Career Journey (00:06:08) – Real-Time Policy Rules (00:23:36) – Potential Drawbacks of Monetary Rules (00:28:46) – Natural Growth Targeting Rule (00:37:31) – Federal Reserve’s Framework Review (00:57:02) – Outro

Dean Ball is a research fellow at the Mercatus Center. In Dean’s first appearance on the show, he explains the AI revolution, current AI developments, policy implications of the AI boom, and the future of AI. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on February 19th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Follow Dean on X: @Deanwball Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:03) – Dean’s Background in Artificial Intelligence (00:03:32) – Recent AI Events (00:22:03) – Policy Implications (00:33:58) – AI and the Future (00:56:34) – Outro

Liya Palagashvili is a senior research fellow and director of the Labor Policy Project at the Mercatus Center. In Liya’s first appearance on the show she explains federal and state level changes to labor regulations, who makes up the gig economy workforce, the role women play in the independent workforce, the novel concept of portable benefits, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 31st, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Follow Liya on X: MissLiyaP Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:37) – Liya’s Background and Interest in Labor Economics (00:03:18) – Labor Policy Project and Labor Market Matters (00:07:32) –Independent Contractors and the Gig Economy (00:17:20) – Independent Work as a Buffer from Shocks (00:23:40) – Women and Independent Work (00:31:01) – Men in the Independent Workforce (00:35:23) – Myths Surrounding the Gig Economy (00:39:36) – Portable Benefits for Independent Workers (00:49:48) – Port Strikes and Dynamic Labor Markets (01:02:36) – Outro

Evan Koenig is a former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed. Evan returns to the show to discuss, the ins and outs of nominal GDP targeting, the practical applications of NGDP targeting, the reasons the Fed should consider it for the framework review, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on October 29th, 2024 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:06) – Evan Koenig at the Fed (00:02:04) – Nominal GDP Targeting (00:06:22) – Why the Fed Didn’t Consider Nominal GDP Targeting (00:17:25) – How to Explain Nominal GDP Targeting to the Public (00:23:10) – Main Arguments for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:52) – Practical Applications of Nominal GDP (00:47:19) – Nominal GDP Targeting and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review (00:50:57) – Outro

Steven Kelly is the associate director of research as the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Steven returns to the show to discuss his new model, the Treasury Equity Model of the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 23rd, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Steven Kelly: @StevenKelly49 Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:47) – The Discount Window and Its Current Momentum (00:03:22) – Evaluating the Treasury-Equity Model of Fed Emergency Lending (00:07:33) – The Fed’s Section 13(3) Facilities (00:12:54) – Creation of Section 13(3) (00:16:46) – Currency Swap Lines (00:18:36) – Beginnings of the Treasury-Equity Model (00:28:16) – Treasury-Equity Model During COVID-19 Pandemic (00:40:12) – Banking Turmoil of 2023 (00:46:15) – Advice for the Fed (00:47:50) – Outro

Pat Toomey is a former senator from the state of Pennsylvania and served on the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. In Pat’s first appearance on the show he discussed his career in public service, Fed master accounts, the future on monetary policy, his quest for Fed accountability, the looming debt issue, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 23rd, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Pat Toomey: @SenToomey Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:09) – Senator Toomey’s Committee Work (00:21:21) – Federal Reserve Master Accounts (00:27:07) – Accountability of the Fed (00:30:07) – Monetary Policy (00:45:19) – Debts, Deficits, and Fiscal Policy (00:57:22) – Outro

Brian Albrecht is the chief economist for the International Center for Law & Economics and is the coauthor of the economics newsletter Economic Forces. In Brian’s first appearance on the show, he discussed the data behind business dynamism, the notion of greedflation, the recent developments in antitrust, the update Econ 101 needs to make in regard to tariffs, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 6th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Brian Albrecht: @BrianCAlbrecht Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:51) – Brian’s Education and Career (00:08:03) – Market Structure and Business Dynamism (00:31:07) – Greedflation (00:45:25) – Trump and Tariffs (00:55:51) – Outro

On this special greatest hits compilation episode our host David Beckworth primes listeners for the Fed Framework Review by highlighting the best snippets from past shows discussing nominal GDP targeting. This episode includes Mary Daly’s thoughts on NGDP targeting, Evan Koenig on the basics of NGDP targeting, George Selgin on Powell’s hesitations with NGDP targeting and how it responds to supply shocks, Jim Bullard on the financial stability of NGDP targeting, Eric Sims on the New Keynesian argument for NGDP targeting, Carola Binder on the benefits of NGDP targeting, Charlie Evans on the prospects of NGDP target, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:31) – Mary Daly on Nominal GDP Targeting Considerations for the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:06:13) – Evan Koenig on the Basics and Preferred Structure of a Nominal GDP Targeting Framework (00:14:17) – George Selgin on Chair Powell’s Concerns About Nominal GDP Targeting (00:21:35) – Jim Bullard on the Financial Stability Argument for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:24:12) – Eric Sims on the New Keynesian Rationale for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:28:23) – Carola Binder on Two Major Benefits of Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:40) – George Selgin on How Nominal GDP Targeting Would Handle Supply Shocks (00:46:55) – Charlie Evans on the Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting During the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:50:57) – Bonus Segment: Enhancing the Nominal GDP Targeting Framework (00:53:08) – Gauti Eggertsson on the Merits of a Cumulative Nominal GDP Level Target (00:55:50) – Scott Sumner on Targeting a Nominal GDP Futures Contract (01:04:25) – Outro