HURRICANE CENTER

After a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Isaias delivered a powerful reminder that the calendar doesn't determine when hurricane danger ends.This week on HurricaneCenter Live, we're joined by David Paul, Chief Meteorologist at WTVY in Dothan, Alabama, for a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at forecasting Isaias and communicating its dangers to communities across the northern Gulf Coast.David takes us through the storm's development, the forecasting decisions leading up to landfall, and the challenges of preparing an audience that had largely tuned out hurricane season.We also explore one of the biggest changes underway in meteorology: artificial intelligence and its growing role in hurricane forecasting. David explains why some traditional computer models struggled with Isaias, how newer AI guidance influenced his thinking, and why understanding the atmosphere remains more important than blindly following any single model.But this conversation goes well beyond computer forecasts.We examine the destructive winds on the backside of Isaias, the dangers of falling trees well inland, and why the projected centerline of a hurricane tells only a small part of the story.And in an era of social media misinformation and sensationalized weather forecasts, how do meteorologists earn the public's trust and get people to take dangerous weather seriously?David shares some candid observations about the differences between television and digital audiences, the importance of clear communication, and the responsibility that comes with being a trusted voice when severe weather threatens.In this episode:How David identified the threat nearly two weeks before landfall.What Hurricane Isaias revealed about traditional and AI weather models.Why the strongest wind gusts can be more destructive than sustained winds.The danger of focusing only on a hurricane's forecast track.How forecasters compete with misinformation and weather hype.Why trust must be earned long before the first hurricane warning.Join Alex Garcia, Bill Reed, and David Paul for a conversation about the science, the technology, and the human judgment behind hurricane forecasting.Because the most important forecast isn't simply where a hurricane will go. It's what that hurricane will do.HurricaneCenter Live is presented with support from USAA, Visit South Padre Island, LiveU, and the Texas Weather Network.Learn more about the National Tropical Weather Conference, April 7–10, 2027, on South Padre Island.#HurricaneCenterLive #HurricaneIsaias #HurricaneForecasting #ArtificialIntelligence #Meteorology #NationalTropicalWeatherConferenceSupport the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

HURRICANE CENTER LIVE | Hurricane Misinformation: Can You Trust What You See?A hurricane appears in a computer model two weeks into the future. Within hours, dramatic forecasts spread across social media. AI-generated flooding videos attract thousands of views. People begin wondering whether to cancel vacations, evacuate or prepare for a disaster that may never happen.How do you separate legitimate weather information from online hype?This week on Hurricane Center Live, Dr. Kelli Burns, a professor at the University of South Florida specializing in social media and digital communication, joins Tim and Dr. Hal "Hurricane Hal" Needham for an important conversation about the changing world of hurricane communication.In this episode:How AI-generated disaster images and videos can mislead audiencesWhy social media algorithms amplify sensational weather contentThe rise of weather influencers without professional credentialsHow misinformation undermines trust in meteorologists and emergency officialsWhy long-range hurricane model predictions create unnecessary anxietyHow credible communicators can build public trust without sensationalismWhat viewers can do to identify trustworthy weather informationThe discussion also explores why clear visual storytelling, consistent communication and responsible forecasting are essential to public safety.The takeaway: Before sharing a dramatic hurricane forecast or disaster video, know the source, check the facts and consider whether the information is credible.Hurricane Center Live is made possible through the support of USAA, Visit South Padre Island, LiveU and the Texas Weather Network.#HurricaneCenterLive #HurricaneMisinformation #WeatherSafety #HurricaneSeason #Meteorology #ArtificialIntelligence #SocialMediaSupport the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

Hurricane Isaias delivered some remarkable surprises along the Florida Panhandle — and Dr. Hurricane Hal Needham was there to witness them.On this episode of Hurricane Center Plus, Hal takes us inside the storm, sharing firsthand observations from Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Navarre, and Pensacola.What he discovered raises important questions about hurricane forecasting, public preparedness, and the way we communicate dangerous weather.In this episode:Why some coastal residents continued their normal routines just hours before landfallHow outdated forecasts can create a dangerous false sense of securityThe unexpected destructive winds west of the hurricane's centerThe meteorology behind the possible sting-jet phenomenonWhy hurricane impacts extend far beyond the forecast trackWhat businesses can teach us about preparing for disastersWe also discuss the emerging role of address-specific flood risk forecasting and the importance of combining physical science with social science.Featuring: Dr. Hal Needham, hurricane and disaster scientist.Join us for Hurricane Center Plus as we explore the science, the people, and the lessons behind major weather events.Presented with support from USAA, Visit South Padre Island, LiveU, and the Texas Weather Network.#HurricaneIsaias #HurricaneCenter #HurricaneHal #HurricanePreparedness #Meteorology #ExtremeWeatherSupport the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

After an extraordinarily quiet Atlantic hurricane season, the Gulf Coast suddenly has a hurricane threat to deal with.WeatherTiger co-founder and chief meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut joins HurricaneCenter as Tropical Storm Isaias organizes over the Gulf of Mexico and forecasters assess the potential for hurricane conditions, flooding rain, storm surge, severe weather and impacts extending well away from the eventual landfall point.Ryan explains why people shouldn't focus solely on the forecast track, how increasing wind shear could actually spread impacts across a much larger area, and why preparations along parts of the Gulf Coast need to be completed before deteriorating weather arrives.The conversation also takes a fascinating turn into the future of hurricane forecasting: Google DeepMind, AI ensembles, ECMWF AI guidance, and how forecasters decide how much confidence to place in rapidly evolving artificial-intelligence models.Former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read and Dr. Hal Needham join the discussion as the team examines Isaias, the remarkable 2026 hurricane season, El Niño and what forecasters have learned from recent Gulf hurricanes.Support the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

One hundred years ago, South Florida faced a hurricane season that would change Miami forever.Historian and author Mike Bilder joins HurricaneCenter to take us inside the extraordinary 1926 hurricane season — a season with fewer storms than today's average, but tremendous impact.At the center of the story is the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926.There was no satellite. No radar. No computer guidance. Information traveled by ship reports, telegraph, newspapers and hurricane warning flags. By the time the hurricane warning reached Miami late at night, conditions were already deteriorating.Then came one of the most remarkable moments of the storm.As the eye passed over Miami, people walked outside believing the hurricane was over. Weather Bureau meteorologist Richard Gray knew better. He and his assistant tried desperately to warn people that the other half of the hurricane was coming.It did — and accounts suggest the second half was even worse.Mike takes us through the storm, the devastating surge across South Florida, the remarkable work of the forecasters trying to document it, and the hurricane's often-forgotten second act: another major hurricane landfall near Pensacola.We also look at what changed afterward — and what hasn't.A century of technology separates hurricane forecasting in 1926 from what we can do today. But one of the most difficult parts of hurricane preparedness remains remarkably familiar: getting people to understand the danger and act before the storm arrives.Join Alex Garcia, former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read and Dr. Hal Needham for a fascinating look back at one of the most consequential hurricane seasons in American history.Guest: Mike Bilder — Historian & AuthorIn this episode:• The extraordinary 1926 hurricane season• The Great Miami Hurricane• Forecasting hurricanes without radar or satellites• Miami's late hurricane warning• What happened when the eye crossed the city• Storm surge and destruction across South Florida• Richard Gray and the historic pressure measurement• The hurricane's second major landfall near Pensacola• How the disaster changed Miami• What 1926 can still teach us 100 years laterSupport the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

Warren Faidley has spent nearly four decades documenting tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning, and flash floods. In this episode of Hurricane Center Live, he looks back at the Saragosa tornado, his first hurricane chase during Gilbert, and the extraordinary experience of photographing Hurricane Andrew with almost no one else around.Faidley also explains why storm surge is far more complicated than water rising at the beach. Roads and escape routes can flood first, and a small wind shift can change conditions within minutes. He discusses the planning, technology, and restraint required to work safely—and why the demand for extreme live footage is changing storm chasing for the worse.Hosts Tim, Bill Read, and Hal Needham also examine current tropical conditions and the flash-flood threat created when tropical moisture reaches the desert Southwest.Key takeawaysThe danger of surge often begins behind you, where evacuation routes flood before the shoreline does.Modern technology improves positioning and communication, but it does not replace local knowledge or judgment.Faidley studies post-storm aerial imagery, infrastructure, high ground, and escape routes before choosing a location.Starlink supports both field communication and his post-storm work as an EMT.Social platforms reward increasingly extreme footage, creating pressure to take risks that do not improve the journalism.Support the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

Hurricane preparedness usually focuses on forecasts, evacuation routes, emergency supplies, and the approaching storm. But another critical part of the equation is already standing around us: the homes and buildings where people live.In this episode of the HurricaneCenter Podcast, Alex Garcia talks with Leslie Chapman-Henderson, president and CEO of the nonprofit Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, or FLASH.Leslie explains why stronger homes, modern building codes, and practical retrofits can dramatically change what happens when a hurricane reaches a community. The discussion examines the lessons learned from decades of major disasters, the vulnerabilities found in both older and newer homes, and the improvements that can help prevent a weather emergency from becoming a long-term family catastrophe.The conversation also explores why hurricane resilience is not simply a coastal issue. Wind, flooding, tornadoes, falling trees, power outages, and displaced families can affect communities far beyond the point where a storm makes landfall.Among the topics discussed:Why the home itself should be considered part of every hurricane planHow stronger building codes improve community resilienceWhy adopting a building code is not enough without enforcementThe risks hidden inside older housing stockPractical improvements homeowners can make before hurricane seasonThe importance of roofs, garage doors, windows, and structural connectionsWhy families should understand both wind and flood riskHow mitigation can reduce damage, displacement, and recovery timeThe challenge of making resilience improvements affordableWhat decades of hurricane research have taught the building industryWhy communities repeatedly rebuild the same vulnerabilitiesThe role of insurance, incentives, grants, and public policyHow individual homeowners can begin assessing their risk todayLeslie’s message is straightforward: we cannot prevent hurricanes, but we can make informed choices about how well our homes and communities withstand them.Preparedness does not begin when a hurricane warning is issued. It begins months or even years earlier—with better information, stronger construction, responsible maintenance, and a plan to address the weakest parts of the home.Support the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

The Atlantic hurricane season is entering the period when tropical activity has historically increased sharply—but what does that mean for the weeks ahead?Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University joins HurricaneCenter for an in-depth discussion about the state of the Atlantic basin, the science behind seasonal hurricane forecasts and the environmental factors that can either support or suppress tropical development.The conversation explores what accumulated cyclone energy tells researchers, why total storm numbers do not determine the impact of a season and why landfall risk remains difficult to predict months in advance.Dr. Klotzbach also discusses how forecasters evaluate ocean temperatures, vertical wind shear, atmospheric moisture and large-scale climate patterns as the season progresses.Most importantly, the episode explains why coastal residents should focus less on a single forecast number and more on maintaining a practical hurricane plan throughout the season.00:00 — Entering the heart of hurricane seasonWhy late August and September command so much attention.03:30 — How seasonal forecasts are createdThe climate and ocean signals used to estimate basin-wide activity.08:00 — What the forecast numbers really meanWhy named-storm and hurricane totals are only part of the story.12:30 — Accumulated cyclone energy explainedHow ACE measures the combined strength and duration of tropical systems.17:00 — Warm water is not the entire equationThe importance of wind shear, atmospheric moisture and stability.22:00 — Why hurricane landfalls remain difficult to predictThe difference between forecasting activity and forecasting impact.27:00 — What could change during the remainder of the seasonThe atmospheric patterns researchers continue to monitor.32:00 — Gulf of Mexico and rapid intensification concernsWhy storms close to land can create compressed preparation timelines.36:30 — The most important preparedness messageWhy residents should not judge their risk by how busy or quiet the basin appears.40:30 — Final thoughtsSupport the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

Meteorologists spend their careers explaining what hurricanes can do. Scott Withers experienced that danger firsthand.While reporting from the Fort Myers area as Hurricane Ian made landfall on September 28, 2022, Scott and his photographer were overtaken by catastrophic storm surge. Water surrounded their vehicle, escape routes disappeared and the team found itself facing the very threat Scott had warned viewers about for days.Scott joins Alex Garcia on HurricaneCenter to tell the story behind his book, Ian’s Surge—a minute-by-minute account of the forecast, the reporting assignment and the fight to survive one of the most destructive hurricanes in Florida history.The conversation explores:How Scott entered meteorology and field reportingWhy journalists deploy into hurricanesWhat the forecast showed before Ian’s landfallHow quickly conditions deterioratedThe moment Scott realized the team was in serious troubleEscaping a vehicle surrounded by storm surgeThe strangers who risked their own safety to helpWhat it was like to remain exposed during the hurricaneThe physical and emotional aftermathWhy Scott waited before telling the complete storyHow he reconstructed the timeline for Ian’s SurgeWhat meteorologists misunderstand about public risk perceptionWhy “storm surge” can remain too abstract for many viewersHow Hurricane Ian changed Scott’s approach to warningsThe lesson he wants coastal residents and journalists to rememberHurricane Ian struck Florida’s southwest coast with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour and produced catastrophic storm surge in communities including Fort Myers Beach. Scott describes Ian’s Surge not simply as a weather book, but as a survival story about what happens when scientific knowledge collides with the reality of a disaster.Support the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.

Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner explains why predicting rainfall is only part of the challenge—and how new forecasting tools, hydrology and lessons from historic floods are changing the way we understand risk.Jeff Lindner joins Hurricane Center Live for a wide-ranging conversation about tropical weather, extreme rainfall and the rapidly changing science of flood forecasting.Lindner is a meteorologist with the Harris County Flood Control District, where rainfall forecasts have to become something much more operational: How much water will fall? Where will it go? How quickly will rivers, bayous and streets respond—and when does that become dangerous? The Flood Control District continues to identify Lindner as one of its meteorologists and has long used his expertise in flood operations and public warning. One of the most interesting parts of the discussion looks at the limits of traditional weather modeling and the next generation of higher-resolution and machine-learning guidance. Jeff talks about the challenge of turning increasingly sophisticated rainfall forecasts into useful hydrologic information—especially when small differences in where the heaviest rain falls can produce dramatically different outcomes.The conversation also reaches beyond hurricanes. Lindner discusses his recent field work examining historic flash floods in Colorado and an intriguing comparison between the catastrophic 1976 flood and a much larger rainfall event decades later. The lesson: rainfall totals alone don't necessarily determine the size of a flood. Duration, terrain, soil conditions, watershed response and changes to the landscape all matter.It is a reminder that forecasting the storm is only the beginning. Understanding what the water does next may be just as important.Support the showSuggest a topic or ask a question: [email protected] our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.comThanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.