Global Insights

Visit us at Network2020.org.On October 4th, Flávio Bolsonaro beat Brazil's president, Lula da Silva, in the first round of the election. No one in Brazil's modern democracy had ever lost the first round and gone on to win. On October 25th, Lula won by 3.6 points.Two days after the vote, we sat down in London with Christopher Sabatini to ask what Lula does with a fourth term, and what Donald Trump does with a winner he didn't want. They talk about Brazil's debt and its rare earths, the Donroe Doctrine after losing Brazil, and how close elections have become across Latin America.Join us for a discussion with Christopher Sabatini, Director of the Latin America Program at Chatham House, moderated by Courtney Doggart, President of Network 20/20.Read the article Christopher Sabatini discusses in this episode: China Takes Its Lawfare to Sea, by Nitya Labh and Christopher Sabatini, in Foreign Policy.Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.Yemen is at war again. This month, Houthi missiles struck the airport in Riyadh and the presidential palace in Aden, and in September the Houthis fought their way down the coast to the mouth of the Red Sea.In May 2020, five years into the war, we sat down with Helen Lackner to ask why it started and who could end it. She explained why Saudi Arabia wanted out, and why the Houthis needed the war more than the Saudis did. Since then, a UN truce has come and gone, the war in Gaza drew the Houthis into the Red Sea, the Emirates left Yemen, and in July the fighting with Saudi Arabia began again.Join us for this special rewind edition featuring Helen Lackner, then a Visiting Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a Research Associate at SOAS, University of London, and now a Non-Resident Fellow at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies.Music by Sergii Pavkin and Joel Fazhari from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.Rapid advances in artificial intelligence, commercial satellite imagery, open-source intelligence, and data analytics are transforming the threat detection landscape. Capabilities once held almost exclusively by governments are increasingly distributed across private firms and publicly available platforms, creating new opportunities for collaboration while also raising difficult questions around trust, verification, security, and alliance coordination at a time when geopolitical trust is low.As technological innovation accelerates, how should the United States and its allies rethink collaborative threat tracking in an era of commercial tech proliferation? As AI automation takes root, how can allied governments coordinate to effectively sift through threats, stop cyber threats, and speed up their combined response time? What does the relatively recent emergence of private, open-source intelligence firms mean for classified government networks? And how do policymakers set rules and maintain legal guardrails when private companies are involved?Join us for a discussion with Dr. Eliot Jardines, Founder and Executive Director of the OSINT Foundation and Dr. Anthony Vinci, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and the first Chief Technology Officer and Associate Director for Capabilities at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), which delves into these questions and more.Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.The world has changed dramatically in the 250 years since Benjamin Franklin’s mission to France in 1776. It is changing again now, with new powers rising, new technologies reshaping how nations engage with one another both diplomatically and confrontationally, and new questions about what diplomatic leadership looks like in the 21st century. Centralized and personalist diplomacy, technological capabilities, and economic statecraft may be as central to modern diplomacy as treaties and summits once were. As America marks 250 years, the question isn’t simply how the world has changed, but what timeless lessons from its founding diplomats still apply, and what genuinely new thinking is required to meet this moment and beyond.How is the current geopolitical moment shaping the use of U.S. diplomacy? What is the role of diplomacy in the current world order? What diplomatic lessons can be learned and applied to the next 250 years?Join us for a look into the current state and future of American diplomacy through the experience and analysis of panelists John Dinkelman, President of the American Foreign Service Association, Dr. Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Distinguished Fellow and former President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Professor Jay Sexton, the Rich and Nancy Kinder Chair of Constitutional Democracy, Professor of History, and Director of the Kinder Institute at the University of Missouri.Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.A major shift is underway in the defense posture of Northern Europe. Finland and Sweden joined NATO, ending long periods of non-alignment. Together, the “Nordic-Baltic Eight” (NB8) give more military aid to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP. Strong balance sheets, driven by innovation and digital transformation, have enabled the region to become leaders in European security.What does this shift in power mean within the European Union and for transatlantic relations, especially following the crisis over Greenland? How have the NB8 countries changed since the invasion of Ukraine, and what do their changes mean for the future? Are they ready for the economic and political risks that come with increased importance in European security?Join us for a discussion with Dr. Hiski Haukkala, Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Dr. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Dr. Kristi Raik, Director of the International Centre for Defence and Security, on how eight countries became leaders in European security — and whether that leadership can survive economic and political turbulence.Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay

Visit us at Network2020.org.The United Arab Emirates’ recent decision to leave OPEC after nearly six decades is about far more than oil—it is the latest sign of a growing rift with Saudi Arabia and a marker of Abu Dhabi’s willingness to challenge a regional order long dominated by Riyadh. From normalizing relations with Israel to pursuing strategic autonomy between the United States and China, the UAE has repeatedly shown that it is prepared to break with old frameworks when they no longer serve its ambitions. In just over 50 years, the federation has transformed itself from a small Gulf state into a global financial, logistics, and diplomatic hub with influence that far exceeds its size.How did the UAE achieve this remarkable rise, and what is Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s long-term vision for the country’s future? What is driving Abu Dhabi’s expanding global influence, and how is it balancing relationships with Washington, Beijing, Riyadh, and its regional neighbors? And can its model of economic diversification, technological innovation, and assertive diplomacy sustain its ambitions, or will geopolitical rivalries and domestic constraints complicate its ascent?Join us for a discussion with Dr. Neil Quilliam, Associate Fellow with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, for a conversation on the UAE’s rise as a regional and global power and what it means for the future of the Middle East.Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.The Philippines sits at the center of an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific, caught between its traditional ally in Washington, and rising interference from Beijing. The country’s strategic location including control of the Luzon Strait, which sees over one trillion dollars in passing goods annually, makes it an important player in the jockeying for economic position in the South China Sea. And the disputed Scarborough Shoal is the last link in the Chinese artificial island triangle which could allow China to project radar control over the South China Sea. As strategic competition intensifies between the United States and China, Manila’s foreign policy choices are shaping not only regional security but also the future of global trade and maritime governance. What greater strategic role does the Philippines play in Asia and the South China Sea? How has the country changed its strategic outlook during the transition from Rodrigo Duterte to Bongbong Marcos? And how will Philippine foreign policy influence the future of regional stability, commerce, and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific?Join us for a discussion with Gregory B. Poling, Director and Senior Fellow at the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and author of On Dangerous Ground: America’s Century in the South China Sea.

Visit us at Network2020.org.For nearly eighty years, Europe's security has rested on a single assumption: that the Americans would be there. In early March, days into the war with Iran, and weeks after Washington threatened to take Greenland from a NATO ally, we sat down with Jeremy Shapiro to ask whether that assumption still holds, and what Europe does if it doesn't.Since this conversation was recorded, the Pentagon has ordered thousands of American troops out of Germany, canceled an armored brigade deployment to Poland, and told allies that future U.S. force levels will depend on how well they align with Washington's priorities. France has offered its nuclear umbrella to eight European countries. And at last week's NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump suggested the United States could remove its soldiers from Europe entirely.Shapiro saw much of this coming. He explains why Europeans no longer trust the American security guarantee, why they can't yet walk away from it, and what a European defense built to operate without the United States would look like, if the political will lasts long enough to build it.Can Europe defend itself before the American umbrella closes? And what happens to the alliance if the answer is no?Join us for this special recap edition featuring Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Music by Alex_Kizenkov from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.From the Strait of Hormuz to the international monetary system to the semi-conductor supply chain, the world is becoming increasingly aware of how dependence on critical chokepoints is shaping how countries can wield power and leverage. As diplomacy becomes increasingly transactional and technological and energy systems undergo rapid transformation, understanding these visible and invisible chokepoints is essential to any decision maker.Is the weaponization of geography becoming the norm? What strategic gains do states expect from exploiting chokepoints? And which mechanisms can prevent the weaponization of chokepoints by states?Join us for a discussion featuring Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” Professor Monica Hakimi, the William S. Beinecke Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, and Professor James Holmes, the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College.Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay.

Visit us at Network2020.org.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The COVID-19 Pandemic. On-and-off-and-on-again tariffs. Over the past few years, the deeply interconnected global system has experienced major shocks that international organizations and nation states alike have struggled to grapple with. In this age of uncertainty, businesses and governments need to make new calculations. More large companies are opening their own geopolitical units to stay steady on the shifting currents. How do corporations assess geopolitical risks? What changes do companies large and small need to make in their approaches to doing business? And what unforeseen opportunities may come from these changes?Join us to delve into the calculation of risks in this potential new geopolitical order with Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist at BCA Research and Pablo Rasmussen, a Director at Brzezinski Global Strategies.Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.