F-World: The Fragility Podcast

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” will be published in 2023. This episode is a grand tour of Seth’s core ideas about fragile and conflict-affected countries. We start by talking about Seth’s professional journey, which began out of his passion for travel and insatiable curiosity about why some societies work better than others. We then shift to the concept of fragility. Seth argues that social dynamics shape the institutions, understood both as “the rules of the game,” as well as the state apparatus. The pathways in and out of fragility or conflict depend on the interplay between formal institutions and informal social rules which govern collective action. Fragility and conflict can be prevented if social groups can come together and chart a unifying course of action that leads them towards prosperity – in other words, if they can manage political and social transitions. We then explore how these factors interact with politics, economics, and security. Seth provides a sweeping overview of situations where countries and communities made “good enough” progress to avoid collapse and even prosper, from Nigeria and Somaliland to Guatemala, India, and Indonesia. In most cases, leaders and elites were able to rally around a common storyline that enabled them achieve unity of purpose and navigate through tough transitions. We also talk about the hard cases, from Libya to Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. The conversation delves into many fascinating tangents. We discuss the work of the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and how it deploys its framework in Libya and Colombia. Seth also argues that multilateral organizations like the World Bank must create the conditions for brave leaders who can move their societies forward rather than focus on purely technical policy advice or project financing. We conclude with the reasons for hope in fragile states, and with a reflection on the skills needed to be an effective operator in the most complex societies (hint – it’s about the human soul). *****Dr. Seth D. KaplanWebsite: https://sethkaplan.orgLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplanInstitute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)EPISODE RESOURCES:United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSGSeth D. Kaplan. 2018. Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity. https://amzn.to/3RLAQ7YSeth D. Kaplan. 2013. Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States. https://amzn.to/3YwbH2ZSeth D. Kaplan. 2008. Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development. https://amzn.to/3Yu9BkVSunil Khilnani. 1997. The Idea of India. https://bit.ly/3DOyfnFTIMESTAMPS:00:01:04 Seth’s story – Wondering youth  00:04:29 Passion for societies in transition (Nigeria)00:08:04 Differences between people: Western and non-Western cultures00:10:21 What is fragility?00:12:49 Social cohesion & strong institutions (Somaliland & Syria) 00:15:20 Social cohesion & impact on politics & economics (Botswana)  00:20:16 Historical exceptions and what makes them special (India & Indonesia)00:24:37 Unifying leaders building on historical legacy (Nehru & Sukarno)00:27:21 Transitions unveiling social fractures (Libya vs. Tunisia)00:31:50 Shifting to a good equilibrium – decentralization (Nigeria), social cohesion (Libya), external anchors (Guatemala)00:39:29 Tough choices: corruption & violence or total country implosion?00:44:55 Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) approach01:00:33 Inclusiveness requires courage (Democrats & Republicans) 01:10:04 How to create a common identity? 01:14:51 Transitions for Ukraine, Afghanistan, & Syria  01:28:38 People in fragile states – reasons for hope 01:34:56 Skills, knowledge, & a new vision to help fragile states01:41:37 Wrap-up

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.This is the second episode in a three-part series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility. We start by talking about why conflict prevention should constantly be on the minds of political actors, civil society, the private sector, and international organizations. Alexandre paints a vivid picture of how the ebb and flow of crises in the absence of prevention can get a country trapped in a downward spiral of conflict and how countries should aim to surf above the narrow corridor between peace and conflict. We then discuss how communication about the risk of conflict can interact with expectations about the trajectory of a country and the delicate balance between raising an alarm without degenerating into alarmism; and how to learn what works in prevention by looking at countries that come close to conflict but manage to avoid it.Our conversation then moves on to dealing with “wild cards” in prevention – from extremist groups to external actors – and how we can engage in prevention when key actors have an interest in maintaining or starting a conflict. We also talk about the need to capitalize on opportune moments to help a country get on the pathway to peace and whether there are red lines that international organizations should cross in order to prevent conflict. Further, we discuss the role of the private sector in preventing conflict and the conditions in which it should play a role. Alexandre makes it clear that while the private sector is an important actor, it is no panacea and warns us not to force the private sector into situations where it can only succeed by being a bad actor.As a preview to our next episode with Alexandre on the geopolitics of fragility, we wrap up this conversation by talking about prevention in an interconnected world: how the global stage has changed since the release of the report in 2018, what should motivate citizens in Western countries to care about prevention, and the shifting roles and interests of China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre deliver a masterclass in prevention!*****Dr. Alexandre MarcWebsite: https://www.alexandremarc.orgTwitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1International Institute for Strategic Studies: https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marcInstitute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)EPISODE RESOURCES:United Nations; World Bank. 2018. **Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict.**Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389International Crisis Group. 2022. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Crisis Group Africa Report N°309. 21 June 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/309-considering-political-engagement-al-shabaab-somaliaAlexandre Marc, Bruce Jones. 2021. The New Geopolitics of Fragility: Russia, China, and the Mounting Challenge for Peacebuilding. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/FP\_20211015\_new\_geopolitics\_fragility\_marc\_jones\_v2.pdfTIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:07 How to build a path to prevention00:05:35 Prevention needs attention not alarmism00:13:25 How to learn what successful prevention looks like 00:21:19 “Wild cards” in prevention and conflict: external interference & extreme beliefs00:29:34 What to do when actors have an interest in undermining prevention?   00:34:31 How to break out of “indefinite conflict” 00:40:40 How to capitalize on opportune moments for prevention00:47:22 Red lines and tradeoffs in prevention00:53:44 The private sector - does it have a role in prevention?01:02:10 Prevention in an interconnected world01:06:42 Why should we care about prevention?01:11:14 The competition between models of governance 01:16:46 Wrap-up

Sarah Cliffe is the director of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC). Prior to that, she held several leadership positions at the World Bank and United Nations. Sarah pioneered the work on fragile and conflict-affected states at the World Bank, serving also as the Special Representative for the 2011 World Development Report on Conflict, Security, and Development. At the UN, she spearheaded efforts to help countries build civilian capacities to strengthen peacebuilding and post-conflict transitions. Sarah’s vast experience ranges from countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Rwanda, South Africa, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste. She began her career in the United Kingdom and has degrees from Cambridge University and Columbia University. This episode is full of big questions and insightful answers from the very beginning.  To start, we speak to Sarah about her formative years, and how her early impressions of fragility and conflict were actually shaped by her upbringing in a mining town in Wales at a time of social upheaval in the United Kingdom. She also shares her perspectives on what communities at risk in the UK, South Africa, and Rwanda had in common – and why some were more resilient. Our conversation then turns more conceptual, as we take a look at how the insights of her work at the World Bank on conflict, security, and development can help us understand today’s global fragility trends. We then explore in depth the big challenges on the world stage ahead of the UN’s General Assembly meetings in September. How are the growing tensions between the US, Russia, and China affecting global governance, especially the UN? How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine divided the international community and what are the perspectives of developing countries? What factors have influenced responses to refugees from Ukraine and beyond? How is the future of multilateralism intertwined with domestic politics? And are there any silver linings to geopolitical fragmentation and the new Cold War between the US and China? We conclude on a high note, talking about reasons to be hopeful – listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.  We conclude on a high note, talking about hope and how history can give us reasons to be hopeful. Listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.  *****Sarah CliffeTwitter: https://twitter.com/sarah_cliffeThe Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University: https://cic.nyu.edu/people/sarah-cliffe*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. *****EPISODE RESOURCES: World Bank. 2005. Low-Income Countries Under Stress: Update. Washington, DC: World Bank, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/458871468328174684/pdf/34789.pdfWorld Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389Sarah Cliffe and Karina Gerlach. Development Competition is Heating Up: China’s Global Development Initiative, the G7 Partnership for Infrastructure, and the Global Alliance on Food Security. New York: Center on International Cooperation, July 22, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/development_competition_is_heating_up_july_2022.pdfSarah Cliffe et all. How to Maintain International Unity on Ukraine (Part II). New York: Center on International Cooperation, May 31, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/what_needs_to_be_done_to_maintain_international_unity_on_ukraine_part_ii.pdfSarah Cliffe et all. Recent UN Votes on Ukraine: What Needs to be Done to Maintain International Unity (Part I). New York: Center on International Cooperation, April 4, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/what_needs_to_be_done_to_maintain_international_unity_on_ukraine_april_2022.pdfGeneral Assembly of the United Nations, High-Level Meetings of the 77th Session, https://www.un.org/en/ga/77/meetings/United Nations, Our Common Agenda: Report of the Secretary-General, New York: United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/content/common-agenda-report/assets/pdf/Common_Agenda_Report_English.pdf*****TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:12 Growing up in Wales, working in South Africa, Rwanda after the genocide 00:04:31 Fragility & conflict in the UK, then and now 00:07:33 Trade unions as community leaders in the UK & South Africa00:10:19 Conflict vs. contestation: What stressors exacerbate violence? 00:14:53 Conflict, security, & development (World Development Report 2011)00:21:22 Fragility drivers: External stressors, group-based inequality, technology & identity 00:27:55 Geopolitical fragmentation, UN General Assembly Meetings 00:33:09 Multilateralism and domestic politics in a changing world order 00:37:05 Reforming the UN in a time of crisis 00:41:18 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, maintaining the credibility of the UN00:48:12 Ukraine, Iraq & the accountability of great powers 00:55:00 Responses to refugees: Ukraine, Syria, Libya 01:00:19 Refugees, identity, & double standards 01:05:50 Geopolitical fragmentation & conflict risks01:09:12 US vs. China: Is a new Cold War a bad thing? 01:14:18 Free speech & joy as proxies for good governance  01:17:47 History as a reason for hope   01:19:59 Wrap-up 

Dr. Abdirahman Duale Beileh is a Somali economist, professor, politician, philanthropist, poet, and well acclaimed song writer. In August 2022, Dr. Beileh finished his term as Somalia’s Minister of Finance, having served for the past five years. Previously, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation from 2014 to 2015. Dr. Beileh has been a driving force behind the reestablishment of the Somali state, and the country’s return to the international scene. We start our conversation with memories from Dr. Beileh’s childhood home outside the city of Hargeisa. An opportunity to study and work abroad in the United Arab Emirates and the United States drove him to question the situation in his native Somalia, eventually leading him to pursue a 30-year career at the African Development Bank (AfDB). We then discuss Somalia’s transition from a failed state to one where elections and a peaceful transition of power recently took place. We explore what went right and the remaining challenges for the future. Dr. Beileh shares his experience of working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other partners on issues such as debt relief and the process of building from scratch an international coalition to support Somalia. He passionately talks about the challenges of instilling a “tax-payer mentality” in a country where most people only experience of taxation as extortion by the violent extremist group Al-Shabaab, as well as the urgent need to finance the security sector. He further shares his experience of collaborating with the finance ministers of Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMS) and outlines his approach to building trust with citizens, federal member state governments, and international partners. And his toolkit is wide-ranging, from transparent communication to music and poetry. Finally, Dr. Beileh sets out a compelling 10-year vision for a Somalia: a country that is self-sufficient in food production, where the link between floods and famine is broken through good governance, and where young people can earn a quality education and pursue their dreams. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.EPISODE RESOURCES:Songs by Minister Beilehhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?list=RDNI1Fbh2HnF8&v=NI1Fbh2HnF8&feature=emb_rel_endhttps://fb.watch/c-r_vmUL6X/International Monetary Fund (2022) “IMF Executive Board Completes the Second and Third Reviews of the Extended Credit Facility for Somalia”, IMF, Washington https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/06/20/pr22215-somalia-imf-executive-board-completes-second-and-third-reviews-of-ecfRaballand, G. and J. Knebelman (2021) “Domestic Resource Mobilisation in Somalia”, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/121391596804622057/pdf/Domestic-Resource-Mobilization-in-Somalia.pdfAbshir, S. et al. (2020) “Tax and the State in Somalia”, Rift Valley Institute Briefing Paper, Rift Valley Institute 2020. https://riftvalley.net/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Tax%20and%20the%20State%20in%20Somalia%20by%20Sagal%20Abshir%2C%20Khalif%20Abdirahman%20and%20Hannah%20Stogdon%20-%20RVI%20%282020%29.pdfWorld Bank. (2017). “Somalia - Security and Justice Sector Public Expenditure Review” World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. : http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/644671486531571103/Somalia-Security-and-justice-sector-public-expenditure-reviewHiraal Institute (2020), “A Losing Game: Countering Al-Shabab’s Financial System”, Hiraal Institute, Mogadishu, Somalia. https://hiraalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/A-Losing-Game.pdfKeating, M., Abshir, S., (2018), “The Politics of Security in Somalia” NYU Center on International Cooperation, New York. https://cic.nyu.edu/publications/politics-security-somaliaIntegrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), (2022) “Somalia Updated IPC and Famine Risk Analysis Technical Release 4th June 2022”, IPC, Nairobi. https://fsnau.org/downloads/Somalia-Updated-IPC-and-Famine-Risk-Analysis-Technical-Release-4-Jun-2022.pdfIntergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) https://igad.intHorn of Africa Initiative https://hoainitiative.org TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:41 Growing up in Somalia and early travels shaping the man00:09:36 Somalia’s transition – success and challenges00:15:54 Being Minister of Finance in Somalia – Prioritizing spending and raising revenue00:22:00 Transparency and managing compounding crises 00:30:26 Financing security sector reform (SSR)00:35:25 Collaboration between the federal government and the member states of Somalia00:42:32 The State vs. Al Shabaab – governance in competition with violent extremism00:48:46 Exiting fragility – can Somalia find a path?00:51:57 Work-ethic and Dr. Beileh’s approach to fragility00:58:46 Values & culture – fostering the right approach to economic growth01:03:41 Regional collaboration in the Horn of Africa 01:09:04 Working with international institutions – from blind-spots to trust01:12:58 Oil & gas in Somalia - avoiding the resource curse 01:16:44 A vision for Somalia in 10 years 01:23:51 Wrap-up

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.This is the first episode in a series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility. We start by talking about Alexandre’s upbringing and how traveling with his parents – an adventure worthy of an Indiana Jones movie - led him to discover the wonders of different cultures. Experiences such as staying in an archeological mission in Egypt, crossing Afghanistan and Iran by car, and a road trip from Paris to Jordan sparked Alexandre’s interest in how different cultures coexist and led him to try to understand conflict. We then talk about to the relationship between the price of bananas and witchcraft in Cameroon – and we sure had questions about it! Alexandre then shares with us how caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand the origins and dynamics of conflict, the need to differentiate between conflict and violent conflict, and how the rise in what he calls “conflicts of fragility” led to the Pathways for Peace report. The conversation also explores how actors, institutions, and structural factors can push a country towards peace or conflict, why peace is desirable, the dangers of horizontal inequality, and the importance of dignity. And there’s so much more! Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre share many more insights into fragility, conflict, and peace. *****Alexandre MarcWebsite: https://www.alexandremarc.orgTwitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1International Institute for Strategic Studies : https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marcInstitute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Editing by Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or Linkedin (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)*****EPISODE RESOURCES: United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337 World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389World Bank. 2020. World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020–2025. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/844591582815510521/pdf/World-Bank-Group-Strategy-for-Fragility-Conflict-and-Violence-2020-2025.pdfGreat Britain. Foreign Office. Historical Section. Cameroon. London, H. M. Stationery off, 1920. Pdf. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, www.loc.gov/item/a22000968/Douglass C. North – Facts. NobelPrize.org. Nobel Prize Outreach AB 2022. Tue. 2 Aug 2022. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1993/north/facts/Stewart, Frances. 2011. Horizontal Inequalities as a Cause of Conflict: A Review of CRISE Findings.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9126 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). States of Fragility 2015: Meeting the Post-2015 Ambitions. Highlights, Revised editiion. Paris, OECD. https://www.oecd.org/dac/conflict-fragility-resilience/docs/FINAL%20States%20of%20Fragility%20Highlights%20document.pdfMarc, Alexandre; Willman, Alys; Aslam, Ghazia; Rebosio, Michelle; Balasuriya, Kanishka. 2013. Societal Dynamics and Fragility: Engaging Societies in Responding to Fragile Situations. New frontiers of social policy. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12222Alexandre Marc, Bruce Jones. 2021. The New Geopolitics of Fragility: Russia, China, and the Mounting Challenge for Peacebuilding. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/FP_20211015_new_geopolitics_fragility_marc_jones_v2.pdfTIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:21 Indiana Jones-like childhood and the discovery of different cultures00:04:35 Banana trade and witchcraft00:06:58 How to see the world in a different way00:09:08 Caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand conflict00:12:25 What is conflict?00:15:42 Does conflict differ across different cultures? 00:18:48 The rise of "conflicts of fragility"00:23:57 The role of institutions in fragility and conflict00:29:00 What is fragility? Depends on who is asking.00:33:53 The interplay of actors, institutions, and structural factors00:41:19 Leadership must come from inside00:46:15 Actors have a choice - focus on structural factors that enhance dignity00:47:55 Development aid shouldn’t be ideological00:54:20 Why is peace desirable?01:01:07 What people fight about, a.k.a. the arenas of contestation.01:09:49 How do the actors, structural factors, and institutions interact in the arenas?01:15:05 Horizontal inequality – when economic issues connect to identity issues01:22:46 On the inequality of dignity & future episodes in the Pathways for Peace series01:24:26 Wrap-up

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.RESOURCES:OECD States of Fragility Platform: http://www3.compareyourcountry.org/states-of-fragility/about/0/States of Fragility 2020 Report: https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htmThe Crises & Fragility team in the Global Partnerships & Policies Division of the Development Cooperation Directorate (DCD) of the OECD. https://www.oecd.org/dac/conflict-fragility-resilience/Marley, J. and H. Desai (2020), "Fragility and Agenda 2030: Navigating shocks and pressures in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 82, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/65d5cb9c-en.Marley, J. (2020), "Peacebuilding in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 83, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d222bc0a-en.Forsberg, E. and J. Marley (2020), "Diplomacy and peace in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 77, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6a684a4b-en.OECD (2022) “Adding the human dimension to the OECD fragility framework”, OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.oecd.org/dac/2022-human-dimension-fragility.pdfOECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/62d0ca31-en.TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Introduction0:45 The 80s in Ireland and the military as a career2:06 Jonathan’s 1st deployment with NATO in Kosovo and civil-military cooperation5:45 The daily life of a peacekeeper8:31 Peacekeeping entrepreneurship11:25 How to build trust as a soldier and peacekeeper15:44 What’s the difference: peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and development?19:39 The missing operational middle: local peacebuilding vs. national development planning23:51 Planning challenges: military vs. development28:45 Business case for prevention34:07 What is fragility?39:58 Value added: States of Fragility & the OECD44:54 Comfortable in ambiguity: the continuum of fragility50:52 Ukraine & the price of a cup of coffee: the value of multidimensional analysis and systems thinking57:23 How can diplomacy help in Ukraine and the role of diplomacy in development1:03:47 Diversity of perspectives on fragility and the challenges of communication1:08:41 The human dimension: a new addition to the States of Fragility framework1:15:34 Wrap-up

Katherine Marshall is professor of the practice of development, conflict, and religion in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and one of the world's foremost experts on the nexus between faith, ethics, and development. In her 35 years with the World Bank, Katherine was a pioneer for women in international development and led the Bank's work in some of the world's most fragile and poor nations. She was also one of the first international development experts to work on the critical importance of religion in global development. In the first part of our conversation, we talk about Katherine’s experience as a woman as she joined the World Bank in 1971, what was then seen as new ideas about women as actors in development, the slowly dawning awareness of the importance of girls’ education, and the need to defend both the roles of women within the institution and the roles of women in development. Katherine then shares with us how she became fascinated by the topic of religion at a time development professionals rarely spoke about or thought much about it. She calls it an adventure with a large number of large blind spots. It was fascinating because it took the work and the institution of the World Bank itself into a new area of ethics, reaching into more fundamental questions about what development is and how different economic models affect people's lives. We also talk about how development and religious organizations relate to different established orthodoxies. One of the ironies Katherine mentions is the religious sounding language used to describe many aspects of the work of development institutions - people go on missions and they follow a doctrine that relies on unseen forces and invisible hands. Listen to the episode to hear Katherine discuss many more fascinating connections between religion and development. The episode was recorded on April 9th, 2021. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net. EPISODE RESOURCES:Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs: https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/people/katherine-marshallWomen, Religion and Peacebuilding - Illuminating the Unseen (2015) by Katherine Marshall https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/09/women-religion-and-peacebuildingGlobal Institutions of Religion: Ancient Movers, Modern Shakers (2013) by Katherine Marshall https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/events/global-institutions-of-religion-ancient-movers-modern-shakersThe World Bank: From Reconstruction to Development to Equity (2008) by Katherine Marshall https://www.routledge.com/The-World-Bank-From-Reconstruction-to-Development-to-Equity/Marshall/p/book/9780415381321

Steen Sonne Andersen is currently the Ambassador of Denmark to Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Benin. He is based in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. An economist by training, Steen began his career working on local governance in Denmark’s poorer regions. He then worked with international development agencies in India, Nepal, Bhutan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Tanzania focusing primarily on the education sector. In the start of our conversation, Steen talks about the early days of his professional journey, when a series of urban development projects funded by the European Union in Denmark sparked his curiosity in understanding community resilience and state modernization. We then talk about the process of state building in the Sahel: Steen paints a vivid picture of fragility and conflict drivers in the region, from water scarcity and rapid population growth, to enduring poverty and violent extremism. He also outlines Denmark’s aid priorities to prevent further conflict and help stabilize the Sahel through support for effective water management infrastructure and security and justice reform. Throughout the conversation, we talk about social protection and the meaning of solidarity in the Sahel, how values shape community resilience, the social contract in post-colonial states, and the role of education in helping women and girls realize their potential. The episode was recorded on May 23rd, 2021. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net. EPISODE RESOURCESEmbassy of Denmark in Burkina Faso: https://burkinafaso.um.dk/fr/ambassade-du-danemarkDanish Development Cooperation (DANIDA): https://um.dk/en/danidaThe World Bank’s Sahel Adaptive Social Protection ProgramRebekka Grun, Mira Saidi, and Paul M. Bisca. 2020. “Adapting Social Safety Net Operations to Insecurity in the Sahel.” SASSP Operational and Policy Note Series, Note 2. Washington, DC: World Bank.Francis Fukuyama. 2011. The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution. New York: Farrar, Straus and GirouxAlexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka. 2015. The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank; and Agence Française de Développement.

Koen Davidse is the World Bank Group’s Executive Director from the Netherlands since 2018. He represents a group of countries that also includes Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Ukraine. Previously, he served as the Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Mali and held senior positions in the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the beginning of our conversation, Koen shares his reasons for choosing a career in diplomacy and development, with stints in India, Sudan, Mali, and also at the World Bank and UN. We then talk about why security sector reform (SSR) that builds effective but also affordable militaries, police, and justice institutions is essential to make progress on economic development in fragile states. Next, we delve deeper into his work in Sudan and Mali. We discuss the challenges of being an honest broker in the implementation of the peace agreement leading to South Sudan’s independence in 2011 and what it’s like to lead a peacekeeping mission aiming to bring stability in Mali. Throughout the episode, Koen shares his insights about why we need peace entrepreneurs to make lasting change, what it takes to achieve better coordination between peace, development, and humanitarian actors, and how to put vulnerable people at the center of global efforts to help fragile states. This episode was recorded on June 18, 2021. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.  EPISODE RESOURCES:Paul Collier, 2007. “The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It.” New York: Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-bottom-billion-9780195311457?cc=us&lang=en&#Security and Development in Fragile States: The Netherlands Strategy (2008-2011) https://www.government.nl/binaries/government/documents/reports/2011/12/23/strategy-setting-out-the-principles-governing-dutch-policy-on-fragile-states-for-2008-2011/english-version-fs-strategy-02-03-2009.pdfUnited Nations, 2006. Delivering as One: Report of the Secretary-General’s High Level Panel. New York: United Nations https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/Delivering-as-One.pdfNew Deal for Fragile States (2011),  https://www.pbsbdialogue.org/en/new-deal/about-new-deal/World Bank. “World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development.” Washington, DC: World Bank https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389Bernard Harborne, William Dorotinsky, and Paul M. Bisca (eds). “Securing Development: Public Finance and the Security Sector.” Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25138Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005) https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/SD_060000_The%20Comprehensive%20Peace%20Agreement.pdfUnited Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission In Mali (MINUSMA), https://minusma.unmissions.org/enCalin Trenkov-Vermuth and Paul M. Bisca. 2021. “Global Fragility Act: A Chance to Reshape International Security Assistance?” Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace                                                                                                                           https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/01/global-fragility-act-chance-reshape-international-security-assistanceFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2020. “Visualizing the P in the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU45k07s70I

Dr. Shanta Devarajan is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches development economics. Previously, Shanta worked for nearly three decades at the World Bank, where he was the Senior Director for Development Economics (DEC) and served as acting Chief Economist. This episode starts with Shanta’s account of his early work on indicators to measure state fragility at the World Bank, and how his understanding of fragility has evolved over time. We then explore how country rankings are linked to aid allocations, and why venture capital is a better model to help countries escape the fragility trap than current practices. We also discuss how international financial institutions navigate the relationship with governments. Reflecting on his work prior to the Arab Spring, Shanta argues that development financing institutions should use knowledge and data to build greater trust with citizens – their ultimate clients. We then get more technical and discuss how taxation in oil-rich countries like South Sudan can promote solidarity, how conflict can shape government decisions on infrastructure development, and the role of macroeconomic policy in fragile states. This episode was recorded on April 14, 2021.Shanta’s Blog ‘Future Development’ at The Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/EPISODE RESOURCES:Andrimihaja, Cinyabuguma, and Devarajan (2011) Avoiding the Fragility Trap in Africa - https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/3652/wps5884.pdf?sequence=1World Bank (2011) World Development Report 2011: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389World Happiness Report, Gallup: https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2021/USIP coverage and analysis of South Sudan: https://www.usip.org/programs/independence-south-sudanDevarajan and Giugale (2013). The Case for Direct Transfers of Resource Revenues in Africa https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/direct-dividend-payments.pdfBanerjee (2016) Aadhaar: Digital Inclusion and Public Services in Indiahttps://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/655801461250682317-0050022016/original/WDR16BPAadhaarPaperBanerjee.pdfBuller et al. (2018) A mixed-method review of cash transfers and intimate partner violence in low and middle-income countrieshttps://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/938-a-mixed-method-review-of-cash-transfers-and-intimate-partner-violence-in-low-and.htmlWorld Bank CPIA https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/datatopics/cpia