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Cheap Talk breaks down the 2026 midterm elections; the performance of the polls, models, and prediction markets; the expectations of the Cheap Talk hosts; whether international relations decided the election; possible post-election changes in key foreign policy posts; two paths for President Trump’s foreign policy over the next two years; jockeying for the 2028 elections; and Marcus would like to see these wars come to an endThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!Further Reading:J. Kenji Lopez Alt. “Hasselback Potato Gratin.” Serious Eats.See all Cheap Talk episodes

Ben Harack joins Cheap Talk to talk about AI risk and governance; power shifts caused by AI; translating AI into a power advantage; technical means to verify limits on AI; the problem of dark compute; prospects for a political deal to cooperatively limit AI development; the US compute advantage over China; predictions for AI existential risk; and Marcus thought this would be all doom and gloomBen Harack is co-founder and Research Lead at the Oxford Hardware AI Governance Lab.The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!See all Cheap Talk episodes

Ukraine access to Starshield is at least temporarily restored; Austria expels suspected Russian spies; the rational calculus of declaring someone persona non grata; rationalists love espionage; and Marcus likes the show The Americans but thinks the Mission: Impossible movies have gone downhillThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.We have new items in the online store! Check them out at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments.See all Cheap Talk episodes

New items in the Cheap Talk shop, including a Mathpocalypse t-shirt and AI sticker packs; placing blame about Ukraine’s access to Starshield; whether polling is damaging to the public discourse; what the polls tell us about the midterm elections; how the polls could be wrong; the role of international relations in the upcoming elections; the limited leverage of Democrats on US foreign policy even if they win; and Marcus enjoys votingThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.We have new items in the online store! Check them out at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments.See all Cheap Talk episodes

A series of unfortunate events in the Russia/Ukraine conflict; the effect of domestic politics on US assistance to Ukraine; the ability of Europe to provide intelligence and battlefield internet access; mathpocalypse and implications for cryptography and cybersecurity; how AI is shifting the offense/defense balance in cryptography; and Marcus is scared to open his new bookThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!See all Cheap Talk episodes

AI agents are like middle schoolers; assessing progress from the Trump/Xi summit; combatting the security dilemma with summitry; creating new communication channels for AI incidents; panda diplomacy and overplaying one’s panda hand; some small movements toward AI governance; why AI resorts to deception; and Marcus is a summit optimistThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!Further Reading:Nicholas Wheeler and Marcus Holmes. 2026. “Trump and Xi face an AI security dilemma – but face‑to‑face diplomacy could be a start in mitigating it.” The Conversation, September 24.See all Cheap Talk episodes

A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferationThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!Further Reading:Nicholas Wheeler and Marcus Holmes. 2026. “Trump and Xi face an AI security dilemma – but face‑to‑face diplomacy could be a start in mitigating it.” The Conversation, September 24.See all Cheap Talk episodes

The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for themThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!Further Reading:Dario Amodei. 2026. “We Must Pace the Frontier.”See all Cheap Talk episodes

The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US OpenThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!See all Cheap Talk episodes

The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development spaceThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop.Please send us your questions or comments!See all Cheap Talk episodes