The Science and Skill of Superforecasting (#230)

Warning: People are out to manipulate you. How? With very sophisticated, deceptive PR techniques. Here, one of Washington’s most wily manipulators of news, Phil Elwood, reveals tricks of his trade — like astroturfing and detonating bombs in a safe location. The more you know about these tricks, the less likely you’ll be conned by them.

What happens when there’s no one in charge? You’d think chaos would reign—but in reality, leaderless organizations are thriving, disrupting industries, and shaping the future. In this episode of 3 Takeaways, New York Times bestselling author Ori Brafman explains why decentralized networks—from Wikipedia to Bitcoin to social movements—are more resilient, adaptable, and powerful than we might expect.

Food. People are demanding more from it these days than taste. They want food to meet their personal health needs. They want it produced using methods that improve the health of the planet, respect the people who grow it, and more. Here, the visionary CEO of Whole Foods Market, Jason Buechel, shares his thoughts on the food of the future and how to satisfy peoples’ appetite for it.

NBCUniversal Vice-Chair Bonnie Hammer didn’t climb to the top by following the rules—she rewrote them. In this conversation, she dismantles the biggest career myths, reveals what really drives success, and shares why sweating the small stuff can make or break you. Packed with no-nonsense advice, game-changing insights, and hard-earned wisdom, this episode is a masterclass in ambition, leadership, and career strategy—without the clichés.

The CIA may not be thrilled with this conversation. Here, Pulitzer Prize-winning author and highly regarded CIA expert Tim Weiner reveals stunning details about the agency’s  espionage and covert activities. Learn about the CIA’s greatest successes and failures, its best weapon, how China and Russia are spying on the U.S., and much more.

Energy is complicated. As global demand continues to grow, so does the need for realistic, climate-friendly solutions. Are renewables the answer? How about nuclear power? What is China’s role? Listen, as former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz provides smart answers to daunting questions about energy, and examines the threat of nuclear war.

When Admiral James Stavridis (Ret) talks, everyone from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump listens. Here, the brilliant former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO shares his thoughts on the U.S. relationship with China; how to fundamentally remake the Middle East; why the U.S. buying Greenland isn’t as crazy as it sounds; the impact of AI on the power of nations; and more.

The episode you’ve been waiting for is here: our Top Takeaways of 2024. Listen to some of the world’s smartest, most influential thinkers, business leaders, innovators, technologists, and other newsmakers — including Eric Schmidt, Mellody Hobson, Atul Gawande, Fareed Zakaria, Jill Abramson, Stephen Breyer, Niall Ferguson and others. You don’t want to miss this episode.If you'd like to listen to any of the full episodes: Historian Niall Ferguson is episode 199.Mellody Hobson is episode 184. Former New York Times executive editor Jill Abramson is episode 206. Norway's Ine Eriksen Søreide is episode 213.Former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer is episode 220. Extraordinary food expert Barb Stuckey is episode 183.Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is episode 225.Negotiation expert William Ury is episode 193.Global health surgeon Dr. Atul Gawande is episode 182. Bioethicist Peter Singer is episode 224.Former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is episode 227. Journalist Fareed Zakaria is episode 209. And, executive coach Marshall Goldsmith is episode 221.

There’s a lot being said about AI these days that’s science fiction. One person who knows the facts is David Schmaier, President and Chief Product Officer of Salesforce. Here, he talks in detail about the many unseen ways AI is being used now, how it will profoundly stimulate innovation and benefit humanity, the rise of robots, and more.

Imagine how much better your decision making would be if you could better predict the future. It’s possible, with superforecasting. In fact, a team of superforecasters won a forecasting tournament conducted by the U.S. intelligence community. What do superforecasters actually do, and how can you become a better forecaster? Don’t miss this talk with superforecaster, and CEO of Good Judgement Inc, Warren Hatch.