World Review with Ivo Daalder

Key TopicsSusan Glasser says Trump is a "double-down" president, not a pullback one, and asks what can actually constrain him after the midterm rebuke.Shashank says oversight and hearings are mostly transparency and harassment tools, and that budget power is stronger. He adds that a Senate map hard to flip in 2028 could block Republican appointees for years.JD Vance's written break with the Iran war is discussed, along with Shashank's view that a major Iran strike now looks less likely. Shashank also lays out the options of muddling through, walking away, or a weak deal.Stefanie Bolzen reports a muted, cautious European reaction. She cites the Pentagon posture review expected by December, the Turnberry trade framework review, and White House pressure on Lithuania over Belarus potash sanctions.The panel discusses Israel as a growing divide inside both parties, especially among younger voters. It also covers generational change in Congress and the Democratic field for 2028.The panel considers how Putin and Xi might respond to a weakened Trump. This includes Ukraine and Russia risks, Kushner's European security proposal, and Taiwan and the US-China trade truce, with Shashank expecting about six months of stability. LinksShashank Joshi - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/shashank-joshi/Stefanie Bolzen - https://www.politico.com/staff/stefanie-bolzenSusan Glasser - https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/susan-b-glasserIvo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

This week on World Review, guest host Bobby Ghosh sits in for Ivo Daalder for a look at elections and selections.Israel's election (2:00): Neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's reaches the 61 seats needed to govern, and Arab parties win a record 19. The panel discusses the stalemate, fraud claims, fears of renewed war with Iran, and how the global south sees the result.Serbia's election (18:30): A student-led movement wins a majority, ending Aleksandar Vučić's 14-year rule. The guests weigh how protesters become governors, what Brussels can offer, and lessons from Hungary.UN Secretary-General race (38:16): Richard Gowan explains straw polls and vetoes, the sidelining of frontrunner Rebecca Grynspan, and the controversial late bid of the UAE's Lana Nusseibeh. They cover concerns over Sudan and China's hesitation.Guests: Catherine Philp (The Times of London), Yannis Palaiologos (Kathimerini), Richard Gowan (International Crisis Group).World Review is a Belfast Center for Science and International Affairs podcast from Harvard Kennedy School.

Key TopicsProtests over the cost of living and failing public services escalated into major riots in France.France’s political deadlock and rising debt have intensified debate over pensions and the country’s future.Young people feel squeezed by housing costs and a system that protects older generations.Declining trust in democracy is fueling support for more radical political movements.The panel questions whether U.S. deals with Russia could weaken pressure on Moscow.A possible summit on Ukraine without Ukraine raises concerns about its sovereignty and influence.Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure are discussed as a source of strategic leverage.European support remains important to Ukraine’s ability to resist pressure.Brazil’s runoff election reflects voter anger over crime, corruption, and weak economic growth.China’s growing economic role and Trump’s influence are reshaping politics across Latin America.LinksYaroslav Trofimov - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/yaroslav-trofimovEduardo Porter - https://www.theguardian.com/profile/eduardo-porterSteven Erlanger - https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlangerIvo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key TopicsU.S. pressure on Ukraine — How Trump’s approach to Zelensky and Ukraine is shaping the war and diplomatic negotiations.Intelligence and Starlink support — Why intelligence-sharing, targeting, and communications can be as critical as weapons on the battlefield.U.S.–Russia relations and the diesel deal — The implications of reported U.S. energy dealings with Moscow for sanctions, oil markets, and Putin’s position.Europe’s support for Ukraine — Whether European countries can sustain support and compensate if U.S. backing weakens.NATO’s security challenges — Alliance cohesion, hybrid threats, and the changing demands of collective defense.U.S. domestic politics and foreign policy — How political pressures in Washington, including the midterms, may influence decisions abroad.Houthi attacks and Saudi Arabia’s security — The impact of attacks on airports and energy infrastructure.Drones and asymmetric warfare — How lower-cost weapons challenge conventional military defenses.Red Sea security and global trade — The risks that regional conflict poses to shipping routes and supply chains.The future of U.S. alliances — How uncertainty about American commitments is affecting the calculations of partners in Europe, Ukraine, and the Gulf. LinksCarla Anne Robbins - https://www.cfr.org/experts/carla-anne-robbinsShona Murray - https://events.euronews.com/euronews-on-air/speaker/1136912/shona-murrayElise Labott - https://substack.com/@eliselabottMichael Shear - https://www.nytimes.com/by/michael-d-shearIvo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

The panel assesses the Middle East after years of regional war, asking whether Israel’s military gains have come at the expense of lasting security, political stability, and international support. They also discuss how the conflict has reshaped American politics and weakened confidence in U.S. leadership across the region.The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where battlefield developments, pressure on civilian infrastructure, and proposed business deals with Russia raise new questions about the path to peace. Finally, the group considers the rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak in Congo and whether a more inward-looking U.S. response could leave both America and the world less prepared.LinksMatthew Kaminski - https://cepa.org/author/matthew-kaminski/Anton Troianovski - https://www.nytimes.com/by/anton-troianovskiYasmeen Abutaleb - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/yasmeen-abutaleb/Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

China, Iraq, and Brexit: three shifts with global consequencesIvo Daalder is joined by Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell to examine the strategy and symbolism behind three major international stories. The panel discusses Xi Jinping’s Washington visit and how the language around World War II could support Beijing’s preferred historical narrative. They consider whether the White House understood the significance of its messaging, and what the summit reveals about the wider U.S.-China relationship. The conversation then turns to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. The guests explore whether the move benefits Iran, what it could mean for Iraq’s security and the fight against ISIS, and how American allies might interpret Washington’s changing commitments. Finally, they look at Britain’s revived Brexit debate. With economic growth and trade increasingly central to the discussion, the panel considers what renewed EU ties could mean for the UK—and what rejoining would require.In this episode:Xi’s visit and the politics of historical narrativesU.S.-China competition and strategic messagingThe consequences of the U.S. exit from IraqIran’s influence, Iraqi security, and the ISIS threatBritain’s changing debate about Brexit and EU membershipWhat these stories suggest about U.S. global prioritiesGuests: Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell

Key TopicsWhat Trump’s UN speech and meeting with Xi tell us about the current state of diplomacyHow seriously to take Europe’s warnings about Russian threatsThe challenges NATO faces in deterring—and responding to—gray-zone attacksWhether Germany’s far-right gains foreshadow a wider European trendWhy cultural identity and distrust of established parties are reshaping politicsLinksKaren DeYoung - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/karen-deyoung/Steve Erlanger - https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlangerJamie Dettmer - https://www.politico.eu/staff/jamie-dettmer-3/Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key TopicsMartin Wolf argues that the Fed’s move is politically significant as much as economically justified, because Donald Trump’s demand for 1 percent rates is, in his words, “insane.”Missy Ryan adds that Trump’s economic focus seems centered less on inflation itself and more on the stock market and the AI boom, especially with the midterms looming.Peter Spiegel links Fed policy to the broader debt and tech borrowing picture, arguing that AI spending may be helping prop up markets even as it pushes rates higher.The panel debates whether higher rates can really fight a global inflation environment shaped by war, oil prices, and supply shocks.On Canada and Europe, Peter Spiegel says Mark Carney’s approach is partly symbolic but politically powerful, since it has helped rally Canadian patriotism against Trump.Missy Ryan stresses that Canada’s stance is rooted in sovereignty and values, but also constrained by how tightly integrated the Canadian and U.S. economies remain.Martin Wolf argues Europe is in a very different position from Canada because most of its trade is internal, and it could survive even a major rupture with the United States.The discussion returns repeatedly to the question of permanence: is Trump’s approach a temporary disruption, or a long-term reordering of U.S. alliances and trade policy?In the Saudi segment, Missy Ryan describes the Houthi conflict and the Iran war as a destabilizing force that has widened old regional fractures and exposed U.S. limits.Peter Spiegel raises the possibility that Gulf states may respond by diversifying security ties and increasing their own defense spending, even if China is not yet able to replace the United States.Martin Wolf suggests that if the United States becomes unreliable, regional powers may eventually move closer to Iran and a broader regional balance of power, rather than count on Washington.The episode closes on oil prices, with Wolf arguing that while the market could still worsen, it has so far adjusted better than expected and may not reach the catastrophic levels many feared.LinksMissy Ryan - https://www.theatlantic.com/author/missy-ryan/Martin Wolf - https://www.ft.com/martin-wolfPeter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key TopicsNicholas Burns recounts being the new U.S. ambassador to NATO when the attacks happened and describes the urgent push to invoke Article V for the first time in NATO history.Meghan L. O’Sullivan explains how 9/11 helped push a generation of foreign policy professionals into government and public service, including her own move from Brookings to the State Department.Juliette Kayyem recalls being on maternity leave and on an Amtrak train to New York when the attacks unfolded.The group discusses how 9/11 changed the American national security mindset from treating terrorism as a niche issue to making it a central organizing concern.O’Sullivan breaks down the evolution of the phrases “you’re with us or against us” and “the war on terror,” arguing that both became more problematic over time than they were at the moment they were first used.Burns emphasizes that NATO allies were unified immediately after the attacks and that Canada was the first country to raise the idea of invoking Article V.The guests contrast the diplomatic and alliance-based response to 9/11 with the later turn toward preemption, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq.O’Sullivan explains why the Iraq invasion cannot be understood apart from the post-9/11 atmosphere, even if the Iraq-9/11 connection itself was not proven.Kayyem describes the creation of homeland security as a major structural shift, from fragmented local and federal systems to a more centralized architecture with FEMA, the FBI, state homeland security advisors, and fusion-style coordination.The panel argues that domestic terrorism, political violence, technology, and radicalization now pose different challenges than the international terrorism focus that dominated the years after 9/11.Burns warns that the State Department and broader foreign policy bureaucracy have been weakened, arguing that America needs experienced diplomats and allies more than ever.The conversation closes with a shared lesson: America is strongest when it relies on friends, coordinates across institutions, and resists making the military the sole organizing principle of foreign policy.LinksJuliette Kayyem - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/juliette-kayyemMeghan L. O'Sullivan - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/meghan-osullivanNicholas Burns - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/nicholas-burnsIvo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key TopicsThe Venezuela oil deal is framed as a huge geopolitical gamble, with claims of 65 billion barrels and a U.S. stake in a private Venezuelan company.Nahal Toosi explains why the deal is surrounded by legal, constitutional, and practical doubts, including questions about infrastructure, financing, and corruption.Alex Ward argues the deal reflects a Trump-era foreign policy that treats oil and regime change as spoils of victory, not just strategic assets.Shashank Joshi notes that Europeans see echoes of earlier resource anxieties, from Greenland to the Falklands, and worry about a broader collapse of principle in U.S. policy.The panel raises the possibility that the Venezuela arrangement could create incentives to delay democratic transition and keep an anti-democratic regime in place.The military segment focuses on the strain caused by extended deployments in the Middle East, especially the impact on munitions stockpiles, carrier availability, and long-term maintenance.Joshi cites the depletion of Patriot interceptors and the ripple effects in Ukraine, where reduced interceptor capacity may be affecting defense against Russian missile attacks.Toosi warns that the U.S. is simultaneously damaging its diplomatic, development, trade, and military advantages, leaving Congress and Pentagon leadership slow to respond.On Russia, Alex Ward says Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip appears to be both a warning and a broader attempt to preserve a back-channel with Russian intelligence.Joshi and Toosi discuss Russian hybrid risk, including the concern that Moscow may test NATO without triggering a classic Article 5-style response.LinksNahal Toosi - https://www.politico.com/staff/nahal-toosiAlexander Ward - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/alexander-wardShashank Joshi - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/shashank-joshi/Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.orgWorld Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder