Episode 328 - Prof. Stephen R. Foerster: Pursuing the Perfect Portfolio

What happens when index investing dominates the market? In this episode, we’re joined by Davidson Heath, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Utah David Eccles School of Business, to explore this question and its surprising answers. Davidson’s research dives into the unintended impacts of passive investing, examining how it influences price stability, corporate governance, and even the way we define shareholder responsibility. He unpacks how index funds, while supporting price efficiency, may be weakening governance structures by reducing shareholder oversight, a shift that could have lasting effects on corporate accountability. We also discuss the promise and limitations of socially responsible investing (SRI), as Davidson introduces the term “impact washing” to describe how some SRI funds fail to achieve real change despite their green branding. In a forward-looking segment, Davidson shares insights on the collaboration between AI and human intelligence in finance, giving a reassuring perspective on the future of machine and human co-existence in complex decision-making. This episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about the hidden dynamics of passive investing and the evolving role of technology in finance!   Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:22) Davidson’s paper On Index Investing; Why active managers are important to indexing. (0:08:42) Conclusions on how index investing is affecting price efficiency. (0:11:10) The role of shareholders in corporate governance. (0:13:06) How the incentives of index funds to monitor portfolio firms differ from active funds. (0:15:10) Measuring how well index or active funds are monitoring the companies they own. (0:16:54) How the expense ratios of index funds affect their quality of monitoring. (0:18:08) What shareholders can do to monitor and make themselves heard. (0:20:31) How index fund ownership affects other firm-level governance issues. (0:21:30) Recap and takeaways on index funds and the market. (0:25:39) The impact of socially responsible investing (SRI) and how successful they are at selecting firms with better environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics. (0:28:08) Unpacking “impact washing” in SRI funds and its consequences. (0:33:04) Insights on how ETFs are replicating index funds. (0:37:03) The implications of Davidson’s findings for index ETF investors and the markets. (0:38:57) Details on Davidson’s Cyborg Trading project and how it’s using AI to complement human intelligence. (0:42:42) How Davidson defines success: being a part of a worthwhile endeavour.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Davidson Heath — https://davidsontheath.github.io/ Davidson Heath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidson-heath-5a28999a/ Davidson Heath on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Fr-HyLEAAAAJ&hl=en Cyborg — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097138/   Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘On Index Investing’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3055324 ‘Do Index Funds Monitor?’ — https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab023 ‘Does Socially Responsible Investing Change Firm Behavior?’ — https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad002 ‘The Rise of Passive Investing and Active Mutual Fund Skill’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4190266 ‘Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4359282

Unlocking the power of education savings is often a complex task, but with the right strategies, a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) can be a game-changer for Canadian families planning their children's future. In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath take a deep dive into the mechanics of the RESP, covering everything from optimal contributions and grant maximization to tax-efficient withdrawals and asset allocation. They discuss critical factors like the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) for low-income families and the intricacies of group RESPs, noting how pooled plans, though easy to join, can financially penalize those who don’t stay the course. With the RESP’s unique 35-year lifespan and its flexible range of education options, this in-depth conversation brings clarity to a valuable tool often overshadowed by its complexity. Tune in to discover practical strategies that could transform how you fund education, optimize your investments, and make the most of Canada’s RESP benefits.   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:02:43) Purpose and structure of the RESP as a tool to fund post-secondary education. (0:06:25) Insight and tips for how contribution limits and government matching grants work. (0:07:13) How the CLB supports low-income families with up to $2,000 without contributions. (0:10:13) Family RESPs, which allow multiple beneficiaries to share contributions and earnings. (0:11:54) Distinguishing between Education Assistance Payments (EAP), Post-Secondary Education Payments (PSE), and their tax implications for beneficiaries. (0:14:27) Front-loading versus annual contributions: optimal contribution strategies to maximize grants and investment growth. (0:23:22) Tips for tax-efficient RESP withdrawals, especially if beneficiaries have other income. (0:35:28) Education outside of Canada, over-contribution penalties, and other considerations. (0:37:28) RESPs and estate planning, including naming a successor subscriber in your will. (0:42:54) Asset allocation advice: prioritize growth early and stabilize as educational costs near. (0:48:00) Constructive criticism of RESP policies to increase access for low-income families. (1:02:02) Summing up the benefits and challenges of RESPs and encouraging families to use them wisely as part of their education savings plan. (1:07:39) The aftershow: reviews, praise for Dan, and a community debate on expected returns.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti — https://benderbenderbortolotti.com/about/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) — https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/education/education-savings/plan.html Canada Learning Bond — https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/registered-education-savings-plans-resps/canada-education-savings-programs-cesp/canada-learning-bond.html Aaron Hector: ‘Optimal RESP funding strategies if you have $50,000 to invest’ — https://x.com/AaronHectorCFP/status/1787188396248731967  Aaron Hector: ‘How to draw down a $200k RESP over a 4 year university program’ — https://x.com/AaronHectorCFP/status/1788196751821738360 Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) — https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development.html 'How to Invest Your RESP’ — https://benderbenderbortolotti.com/how-to-invest-your-resp/ ‘The Regulation of Group Plan RESPs and the Experiences of Low-Income Subscribers’ — https://seedwinnipeg.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/The_Regulation_of_Group_Plan_RESPs_and_the_Experiences_of_Low-income_Subscribers.pdf Episode 326: Dr. Sunil Wahal: Exploring the Nuances of Financial Science — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/326   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘The Anatomy of Value and Growth Stock Returns’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.806664 ‘Migration’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.926556

Have you ever wondered how the world's top financial thinkers shaped the way we invest today? In this episode, Ben and Cameron sit down with Professor Stephen Foerster from the Ivey Business School to explore the evolution of modern investing. As a distinguished financial expert and co-author of In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, Professor Foerster dives into the groundbreaking work of financial pioneers like Harry Markowitz, Bill Sharpe, Gene Fama, and others, unpacking their remarkable contributions to portfolio management, risk assessment, and market efficiency as we know it today. Tuning in, you'll gain a deeper understanding of Markowitz's revolutionary diversification theory, Sharpe's introduction of beta as a risk measure, and Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis, as well as each of their perspectives on the “perfect portfolio,” tying together the history, theory, and practical application of modern investment strategies. Whether you're looking to sharpen your strategy or build your investment knowledge from the ground up, this conversation with Professor Foerster is packed with actionable takeaways and fascinating stories that could change the way you approach your financial future. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from the thought leaders who shaped the market!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:29) Contrasting the historical art of investing with the modern science of investing. (0:04:44) Markowitz’s diversification theory and the importance of balancing risk and return. (0:09:39) Sharpe’s capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and his contribution to measuring risk. (0:16:13) Insight into Fama’s Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the joint hypothesis problem. (0:19:13) The rise of factor investing and the significance of Fama-French’s three-factor model. (0:23:26) Unpacking Shiller and Fama's main point of disagreement on bubbles. (0:26:50) Bogle’s perfect portfolio and persistence about the index fund, despite resistance. (0:29:37) How the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing formula changed the world. (0:34:37) Ways that Merton contributed to portfolio theory and his take on TIPS. (0:36:20) Key takeaways from talks with Martin Leibowitz, Charlie Ellis, and Jeremy Siegel. (0:37:35) An interesting analogy for Professor Foerster’s take on the “perfect portfolio.” (0:40:53) Correlation vs. causation in stock pricing and how it applies to factor investing. (0:46:38) Examples of masterly inactivity and investor lessons from Madoff's Ponzi scheme. (0:52:07) The dangers of FOMO, a SPACs cautionary tale, and lessons from value investors. (1:00:43) Winning at tennis vs. investing and risks of over-reliance on automated decisions. (1:06:02) Long-term lessons from pioneers in finance to improve investment strategies today.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — https://www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Professor Stephen Foerster — https://stephenrfoerster.com/ Ivey Business School — https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/ Stephen Foerster on LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephen-foerster-26b85319/ Stephen Foerster on X – https://x.com/profsfoerster Stephen Foerster Books — https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B001KDO1L0 ‘Cristiano Ronaldo snubbed Coca-Cola. The company’s market value fell $4 billion.’ — https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/16/cristiano-ronaldo-coca-cola/   Books From Today’s Episode:   In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691229880 Trailblazers, Heroes, and Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor — https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DHLVYK1Q In Pursuit of the Unknown: 17 Equations That Changed the World — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0465085989 A History of Interest Rates — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0471732834 Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0071813659 Stocks for the Long Run — https://www.amazon.com/dp/1264269803/ Extraordinary Tennis For The Ordinary Player — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0517511991   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work’ — https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486 ‘The Loser’s Game’ — https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v31.n4.19 'The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities’ — https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814759588_0001  

What does it take to manage a $60 billion wealth management firm while keeping investment strategies grounded in scientific thinking? In this episode, we’re joined by Don Calcagni, Chief Investment Officer at Mercer Advisors. Don chairs the firm’s investment committee and provides guidance on mergers and acquisitions, investment integration, and long-term strategic planning. His expertise spans fiduciary oversight, portfolio management, private equity, and financial mathematics. In our conversation, we discuss how his firm constructs client portfolios, engages with academic and industry experts, and leverages a factor-based investment approach. He also explains the importance of having an investment philosophy rooted in fiduciary principles and delves into how Mercer Advisors manages fiduciary oversight for billions of dollars in assets across thousands of families. Explore the details of portfolio governance and the role of the firms’s alternative investment platform space. Gain insights on value metrics, factor investing, and how Mercer works to provide a family-office experience for everyday clients. Tune in for a deep dive into portfolio construction and the evolving landscape of wealth management with Don Calcagni! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:05:22) Learn about Mercer Advisors and the range of services it has on offer. (0:07:10) Unpack Mercer Advisors’ approach and philosophy to portfolio construction. (0:11:55) The Building Better Portfolio Summit and the purpose of the event. (0:17:08) How the meetings are structured and the main takeaways from the last event. (0:24:45) What topics cause extreme points of agreement and disagreement at the meetings. (0:29:21) Find out how takeaways from the events are implemented into client portfolios. (0:31:19) Mercer Advisors’ recently launched alternative investment platform space. (0:40:23) Don shares valuable recommendations and advice for the average investor. (0:42:23) Aftershow: the controversy surrounding the RBC options trading incident. (0:49:57) Listener feedback, reviews, updates, and upcoming events.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/  Canadian Couch Potato — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/blog/  Don Calcagni on LinkedIn — https://linkedin.com/in/donald-calcagni-8104b546/ Mercer Advisors — https://merceradvisors.com/ ‘Building Better Portfolios | 2023 Summit’ — https://youtu.be/TWYukQogQPA Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://dimensional.com/ BlackRock — https://blackrock.com/ Avantis — https://www.avantisinvestors.com/ AQR — https://aqr.com Carlyle — https://carlyle.com/ Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) — https://www.rbcroyalbank.com Future Proof Festival — https://futureproofhq.com/festival/ Episode 316: Andrew Chen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/316 Episode 323: Renting Versus Buying a Home in Canada 2005-2024 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/323 Episode 325: Addressing 200+ Comments on Renting vs. Owning a Home — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/325   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘Portfolio Selection’ — https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x  

What are the critical factors driving investment success? How can investors balance profitability and risk? In this episode, we sit down with Dr. Sunil Wahal, the Jack D. Furst Professor of Finance and Director of the Center for Responsible Investing at the W.P Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, to delve into the intricacies of financial science. With over 25 years of academic and practical experience, Dr. Wahal shares his unique perspective on factor investing, profitability premiums, and how to approach value investing in today’s complex financial environment. He talks about the joint distribution of value and profitability, explains how profitability premiums work, and discusses the challenges faced when integrating academic research into practical investing strategies. Dr. Wahal also touches on common misconceptions in financial theory, the long-term benefits of maintaining a diversified investor base, and why understanding the nuances of financial risk is key to avoiding costly mistakes. Gain insights into building a successful investment portfolio grounded in the principles of financial science and how to avoid common pitfalls in factor investing. Join us to hear actionable strategies for balancing risk, understanding factors, and applying academic research to real-world scenarios with Dr. Sunil Wahal! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04:15) Dr. Wahal’s work on profitability, data sourcing challenges, and its significance. (0:08:01) The impact of controlling the value of the profitability premium. (0:10:08) Correlations between value and profitability and the benefits of “tilted” portfolios. (0:14:48) Steps for unleveraged long-term investors to build profitable portfolios. (0:17:27) How the joint distribution of value and profitability differs from a profitability screen. (0:20:43) Approaches of large financial firms to implementing value and profitability in portfolios. (0:24:41) Time horizons for tiled portfolios and their expected returns after cost.  (0:30:53) Insight into how institutions decide on which investment managers to hire and fire. (0:38:00) Exploring how the hiring and firing of managers affects institutional performance.  (0:40:16) Ways the relationships with institutions influence hiring decisions and performance. (0:44:35) Uncover how institutions select which private market firms to invest in. (0:48:58) Key takeaway lessons from Dr. Wahal’s research for institutional investors. (0:50:52) Why frequently hiring and terminating managers may not be the best approach. (0:52:32) Advice for retail investors and the importance of cost in managing portfolios. (0:59:22) Reasons that institutions avoid indexing and the competitiveness of mutual funds. (1:02:29) How diversification among mutual fund investors affects performance. (1:09:19) Performance overview of actively managed global equity mutual funds. (1:12:35) The role of practitioner interaction and his concept of success. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Sunil Wahal on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/sunil-wahal/ W. P. Carey School of Business — https://wpcarey.asu.edu/ Avantis Investors — https://www.avantisinvestors.com/ Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://www.dimensional.com/ UpWork — https://www.upwork.com NVIDIA — https://www.nvidia.com Episode 316: Andrew Chen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/316   Books From Today’s Episode:   The Interpretation of Financial Statements — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0887309135   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks’ — https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2188870 ‘Long-Run Stock Market Returns: Probabilities of Big Gains and Post-Event Returns’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3873010 ‘Prudential Uncertainty Causes Time-Varying Risk Premiums’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2176896 ‘A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2287202 ‘Do Institutional Investors Exacerbate Managerial Myopia?’ — https://doi.org/10.1016/S0929-1199(00)00005-5

There are many different considerations behind housing when you are in the position to choose between renting or buying. During this episode, hosted by Ben Felix and Dan Bortolotti, we address user questions and comments on homeownership, rentals, and the factors that may lead to choosing one over the other. We discuss what makes homeownership more attractive as your financial situation evolves, consider whether or not landlords are making money on their properties in 2024, and explore the explanations behind whether or not renters are less wealthy than owners. This conversation also touches on one of the most common misconceptions about housing, why it is untrue, and how to make this key decision of renting or buying based on both lifestyle and financial considerations and the difference in mindset between renters and buyers. Join us today to hear all this and more. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:02:06) Homeownership versus renting with renovations and rental evictions in mind. (0:08:40) Understanding the risks and rewards associated with securitive tenure.  (0:10:09) Factors that may influence changing needs that may influence whether you rent or buy. (0:15:58) Three factors that one user would include in an argument of renting versus buying. (0:18:25) Addressing the idea that it is equally expensive for a family or landlord to own a home. (0:21:00) How the cost of homeownership evolves with time and other factors.  (0:24:50) Why owning a home is not above and beyond better than renting or owning with a mortgage.  (0:27:50) Understanding factors beyond financial considerations when it comes to renting versus owning. (0:34:10) The difference in mindset between homeowners and renters and the benefits of both. (0:38:10) Why it is so beneficial to be open-minded and add to conversations rather than rejecting other people’s ideas. (0:40:25) Ben tells the story from the start of his career and Dan shares his experience of feedback on the Canadian Couch Potato blog.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/?team-search=benjamin+felix   Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/blog/

Have you ever wondered how financial markets performed centuries ago or how world events impacted stock prices? Today, we sit down with Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Chief Economist at Global Financial Data, to unpack the world’s fascinating financial history. Dr. Taylor is known for his extensive work in collecting and analyzing historical financial data that spans several centuries and his valuable knowledge of stock, bond, and commodity market trends, which led to the creation of Global Financial Data. In our conversation, Dr. Taylor shares insights from his extensive research, covering stock and bond returns from as far back as the 1600s. From the impact of the French Revolution on financial markets to the performance of commodities, Dr. Taylor provides a rare view of the long-term trends shaping today’s financial decisions. Learn about the value of historical financial data, its importance for investment decision-making, and how long-term trends can provide insights into future market behaviour. We discuss the creation of Global Financial Data's extensive historical financial database, the challenges of gathering centuries-old data, and the long-term performance of stocks versus bonds. Explore the impact of major geopolitical events on financial markets, the importance of studying historical market trends for modern investment decisions, and how his data-driven research has been utilized. Join us as we delve into the world’s financial history and its relevance to today’s investment landscape with Dr. Bryan Taylor. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:41) Background about Global Financial Data, their data sources, and the challenges of collecting historical data. (0:09:27) What he finds fascinating about historical data, who uses the database, and the role of historical data in financial decision-making. (0:14:49) How stocks have performed relative to bonds throughout the financial records. (0:17:34) Uncover the main historical factors that limit returns and increase risk for investors and the five financial eras. (0:23:18) Explore the trends in stocks and bonds during the five financial eras and the impact of government debt and inflation on returns. (0:29:04) Common characteristics of countries that have had bad long-term market outcomes and the effect of world events on markets. (0:35:11) Learn about the best and worst-performing markets and what makes the US market so resilient. (0:38:36) His outlook for stocks and bonds and how the recent bear market compared to past market upheavals. (0:41:36) Compare past and current interest rates and the return on commodities versus stocks and bonds. (0:46:20) Overcoming the lack of historical data for emerging market returns and what defines an emerging market. (0:52:29) Find out how emerging markets have performed throughout history and how often they make the transition to developed. (0:59:04) Unpack the historical market concentration in the US and his thoughts on the expected returns of the US stock market. (1:03:42) Final takeaways and Dr. Bryan Taylor shares his definition of success.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dr. Bryan Taylor — https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryan-taylor-46a92032/ Global Financial Data — https://globalfinancialdata.com/ Dr. Bryan Taylor on SSRN — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=4320002   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘France and the Four Horsemen of the Market’ — https://globalfinancialdata.com/france-and-the-four-horsemen-of-the-market ‘The Financial History of Emerging Markets: New Indices’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4193062  

Is renting just “throwing money away,” or could it be the smarter financial choice? In this episode, we dive deep into one of the most debated topics in personal finance: renting versus owning a home. In our conversation, we discuss the nuances of renting versus owning, the hidden costs of buying a home, and the importance of saving discipline. Tuning in, you’ll discover how emotional biases may inflate real estate prices and how societal pressures influence housing decisions. Then, we shift our focus to a listener's question about interest rates and bonds. Dan explains how bond prices and yields work inversely and delves into the concept of bond duration. He also breaks down how long and short-term bonds react to interest rate changes and why the Bank of Canada’s influence on bond markets may not always be straightforward. Join us as we investigate the pros and cons of renting versus buying and how to leverage bonds effectively in a dynamic interest rate environment! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:54) Exploring the common belief that owning a home is universally better. (0:09:13) How buying and renting in Canada compares to other countries. (0:10:58) Some of the inherent risks of renting versus buying in Canada. (0:17:01) Methods to test how housing performed as an asset with examples. (0:21:04) The importance of analyzing real data, and Ben presents his findings.  (0:31:03) How housing costs influence the financial outcome of renting versus owning. (0:35:51) Ways that mortgages, housing costs, and forced savings affect wealth accumulation. (0:47:34) Unpacking how maintenance costs serve as a proportion of the building value. (0:52:45) Renting versus buying takeaways and the associated psychological factors. (1:00:37) Dan’s take on whether long-term bonds can take advantage of falling interest rates. (1:10:55) Insight into how various market-driven factors influence the long-term return on bonds. (1:13:30) Aftershow: final takeaways, catch-up, news, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Canadian Couch Potato — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Future Proof Conference — https://futureproofhq.com/ CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) Rental Market Survey Data — https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/rental-market/rental-market-report-data-tables Episode 196: Sebastien Betermier — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/196 Episode 308: Dan Bortolotti — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/308 Statistics Canada — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/ Bank of Canada — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/ National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) — https://www.ncreif.org/ REALTOR.ca — https://www.realtor.ca/ Kevin Prins — https://www.bmoetfs.ca/specialists/kevin-prins BMO Canadian ETF — https://www.bmoetfs.ca/ Financial Planning Association of Canada — https://www.fpassociation.ca/   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions’ — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/089533005775196769&ref=josephnoelwalker.com ‘Lessons from Over 30 Years of Buy versus Rent Decisions: Is the American Dream Always Wise?’ — https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2011.00321.x ‘Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w25090 ‘Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk’ — https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/120.2.763 ‘To Rent or Buy? A 30-Year Perspective’ — https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/MAY18-rent-or-buy-30-year-perspective ‘Are Renters Being Left Behind?: Homeownership and Wealth Accumulation in Canadian Cities’ — http://hdl.handle.net/2429/50413 ‘The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes’ — https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2005/wp05-7.pdf ‘Depreciation of Housing Capital, Maintenance, and House Price Inflation: Estimates From a Repeat Sales Model’ — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.07.007 ‘Characteristics of Depreciation in Commercial and Multifamily Property: An Investment Perspective’ — https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12156 ‘Homeownership and Psychological Resources Among Older Adults: Do Gender and Mortgage Status Moderate Homeownership Effects?’ — https://doi.org/10.1177/08982643211029174  

Can we really understand the impact of passive ownership on the US market? Marco Sammon is an Assistant Professor in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. During this episode, he joins us to share deep insights into the complex and counter-intuitive nature of the index fund revolution. To kick off our conversation, we discuss some of the challenges associated with getting a true understanding of the scope of passive ownership across the US. Distinguishing between different approaches to investment, we begin to unpack Marco’s paper with Alex Chinco, titled ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is’. We touch on the relevance of Grossman Stiglitz in 2024, pricing and reconstitution, and the ins and outs of employee stock and compensation. Using the case studies of huge global firms, we consider how to best accommodate passive demand. Lastly, as an index investor who does not own index funds, Marco shares his opinion on whether index funds have had a net positive or negative impact on financial markets. Tune in today to get a more dynamic view of the complex world of index funding and investment. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:45) Index funds, index and passive investments, and why Professor Marco Sammon is perfectly positioned to unpack these concepts.  (0:03:36) The challenges of understanding just how big passive ownership is in the US market.  (0:08:16) Distinguishing between partial investment, direct investment and passive funds.  (0:10:14) Important concepts on the closing auction and which indexes Marco focuses on.  (0:15:50) Defining the Grossman-Stiglitz framework and its validity in 2024.  (0:20:36) Evolving ideas around pricing and reconstitution over time.  (0:23:05) Why indexing is a fixed-point problem and how to measure market efficiency.  (0:32:19) Nuances of security demands around indexing and how it differs from other investors.   (0:38:02) Employee compensation and reverse causality as illustrated by Marco’s friend.  (0:42:10) Why it is important to distinguish between equal-weighted and value-weighted.  (0:44:13) How huge firms like Facebook and Tesla accommodate passive demand.  (0:48:19) Conditions that affect the responsiveness of firms in accommodating passive demand.   (0:51:13) The ‘Dead Reckoning’ metaphor to describe how we can know who is clearing the market. (01:02:22) Marco’s thoughts on whether index funds have had a net positive or negative impact.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Marco Sammon — https://marcosammon.com/ Marco Sammon on X — https://x.com/mcsammon19  Episode 302: Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/302 Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is’ — https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/double-what-you-think-it-is%20may%2023_3c1ae213-5aec-407d-b656-13e3822f0b8b.pdf ‘On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets’ — http://www.dklevine.com/archive/refs41908.pdf  ‘Capital Asset Prices With and Without Negative Holding’ — https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/nobelp/1990_003.html Do Demand Curves for Stock Slope Down? — https://www.jstor.org/stable/2328486/ 

How can the Rational Reminder Podcast get even better? By bringing back one of its most beloved voices, Dan Bortolotti, also known as "The Spud." In this exciting episode, hosts Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Mark McGrath announce that Dan, the mind behind the Canadian Couch Potato Podcast, will now be a regular guest, contributing segments like "Bad Investment Advice" or "Ask the Spud.” Before Dan joins the conversation, we have an insightful discussion with Håkon Kavli, CIO of Reitan Kapital. Håkon shares how his team manages the wealth of one of Norway’s most prominent families, comparable to Canada’s Weston family. We discuss Reitan Kapital’s evidence-based investing approach, their robust methods for overcoming portfolio optimization challenges, and much more. Håkon also sheds light on their upcoming investing conference in Norway, featuring speakers like our very own, Cameron Passmore, and Marcos López de Prado. Following this, Dan kicks off his return by dissecting an article that advocates going all-in on the QQQ ETF in an RRSP, exposing the dangers of such a concentrated and risky strategy. He contrasts this approach with the wisdom of diversifying across global markets, using examples like Vanguard’s VEQT ETF, which offers exposure to over 13,000 stocks worldwide. Additionally, if you’re a financial advisor interested in joining a planning-focused, fiduciary firm like PWL Capital, we encourage you to reach out. Our team is growing, and we’re looking for like-minded individuals to join our mission. Tune in for a rich mix of expert advice, thoughtful discussions, and exciting announcements! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:28) Announcements: a new regular guest, PWL’s call for like-minded advisors, and more. (0:04:15) Introducing Håkon Kavli, the Reitan family, and the origins of Reitan Kapital. (0:08:06) Reitan Kapital’s investment philosophy and asset allocation strategy. (0:10:29) The biggest differences between a Reitan Kapital portfolio and a market portfolio. (0:13:19) Capital market assumptions; how they influence Reitan Kapital's investment process. (0:20:38) Portfolio optimization challenges and Reitan’s robust methods for addressing these. (0:35:06) The role of private equity in a diversified portfolio and how it differs from public equity. (0:38:40) Fee structure significance in private equity investments and their impact on returns. (0:40:38) Risks associated with private equity and how they compare to public markets. (0:43:36) Reitan Kapital’s view on how private equity fits into a diversified portfolio. (0:49:08) Challenges of investing in private equity for retail investors.  (0:50:26) Why so many institutions and firms have substantial allocations to private markets. (0:53:58) An overview of the research Håkon is most excited about. (0:56:20) Details for the upcoming conference in Norway, featuring Cameron Passmore. (0:59:16) Dan’s Bad Investment Advice segment; going all-in on the QQQ ETF in an RRSP. (01:13:12) Our aftershow segment: listener feedback, our next meetup in Ottawa, a shoutout to Jason Pereira, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti — https://www.canadianmoneysaver.ca/authors/dan-bortolotti Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Episode 308: Dan Bortolotti — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/308 Håkon Kavli on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/haakonkavli/ Reitan — https://reitan.no/no Reitan Kapital — http://www.reitankapital.no/ Weston — https://www.weston.ca/en/Home.aspx Marcos Lopez de Prado — https://www.orie.cornell.edu/faculty-directory/marcos-lopez-de-prado Antti Ilmanen — https://www.aqr.com/About-Us/OurFirm/Antti-Ilmanen Episode 224: Prof. Scott Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224 Sharpe ratio — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp Episode 210: Prof. Ludovic Phalippou — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/210 Reitan Kapital Conference — ‘An interesting RRSP idea – all in on QQQ?’ — https://www.tawcan.com/all-in-on-qqq/ VEQT Vanguard All-Equity ETF Portfolio — https://www.vanguard.ca/en/investor/products/products-group/etfs/VEQT Mark Mid Graph on X — Jason Pereira — https://jasonpereira.ca/ Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2356553 ‘Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w9275 ‘What are Stock Investors' Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=544142