The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

Feeder cattle prices slipped this week as heavy fall volume weighed on the market, with 600-pound steers falling $12.26 to $358.82 per cwt. Meanwhile, beef imports are up 74.6% since 2023 and packers are caught between costly cattle and excess plant capacity, which could shape what producers see at the bid. In this Friday Week in Review, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle numbers. 500-549 pound steers averaged $403.31, down $9.57, and the model forecast points to a dip before a recovery over the next four weeks. They also cover packer earnings: JBS missed third-quarter expectations but expects a better 2027 for US beef, Tyson is reportedly boosting beef processing, and Minerva's losses widened on higher cattle costs. The hosts also review a choppy cattle futures market that bounced off multi-month lows on short covering and bargain buying, then paused on profit taking. They explain why a two-day rally isn't a trend and why a marketing plan matters. Jim shares lessons from the 2003 BSE shock and how packer decisions move calf prices. The episode closes with USDA's outlook for EU milk and butter demand, plus research on willow leaves and emissions, the Langhill genetics study, and farm digitalization.

Tyson Foods just announced plans to restart a second shift at its Amarillo, Texas, beef plant and build a long-term partnership with Allied Beef, a consortium of American ranchers. The move could reshape packer demand across the Southern Plains, but it also raises questions about how many cattle will trade on an already thin cash market. On the November 10 Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down what the Tyson news means for fed cattle basis and price discovery. They cover a steep slide in cattle futures, with live cattle hitting an eleven-month low and weak cash trade and soft beef exports adding pressure. Jim shares lessons from the 1998 hog collapse and explains why knowing how your price gets made matters, along with risk tools like Livestock Risk Protection and futures hedges. The episode also reviews the feeder calf market, where 500-549 pound steers averaged $403.31 and 600-649 pound steers averaged $358.82 after a weekly pullback, with forecasts pointing to a dip before a recovery. On animal health, New World screwworm detections climbed to 113 cases, including the first in Arizona. Brock and Jim also discuss H5N1 in Washington dairy herds, bovine respiratory disease research, and nitrate toxicity in forages.

Cattle futures fell for an eighth straight session this week, and the TCR Cattle Market Index dropped more than 10% in ten days, even as feeder cattle prices climbed. Brock and Jim break down what is driving the pressure on the board and what producers can do about it. Steers weighing 500-549 pounds are at $411.74/cwt, up $10.77 from a month ago. Steers weighing 600-649 pounds are at $370.05/cwt. Both classes traded on heavy volume. On the futures side, weak cash prices, doubts over costly US beef, and life-of-contract lows in lean hogs kept the pressure on. Jim shares lessons from the 2003 BSE scare on not making your biggest decision on your worst day. The episode also covers a soft week of beef export sales against strong September export value, led by Taiwan, plus the US-Canada trade talks and the debate over beef origin labeling. On the weather and feed side, US drought area fell 11.7% in a week, but the Southeast heads into winter with serious drought stress on cow herds. Corn harvest is 74% complete, and winter wheat is rated just 44% good to excellent. Jim recalls the 1996 drought and why running your feed numbers early matters.

Feedlot placements just hit a record low for September, down 12.1 percent from last year and the lowest since USDA began tracking the series in 1996. With feeder steer prices climbing and beef supplies still tight, the pipeline behind today's cattle looks thinner than the headline inventory suggests. In the Tuesday Market Update for November 3, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle prices. Steers weighing 500 to 549 pounds averaged $411.74 per hundredweight, up $10.77 from a month ago. Steers weighing 600 to 649 pounds averaged $370.05, up $8.42 over the same period. The forecast shows lighter calves holding momentum while heavier classes flatten out. The episode also covers USDA's new negotiated fed cattle price report for the Southern Plains and what thin cash trade means for price discovery. Brock and Jim look at CoBank's view on rising beef imports, USDA's 94.2 million head cattle inventory, and the 4 percent drop in red meat production. The October Cattle on Feed report is examined, including why inventory looks flat while placements and marketings fell sharply. Jim shares stories from 1999 and 2003, and the hosts offer practical takeaways on watching cash trade, tracking placements, and using risk management tools to protect margins.

September feedlot placements fell 12.1% from a year ago, a record low for the month, according to USDA's October Cattle on Feed report. Marketings were also the lowest for September since the series began in 1996, and that tight supply is shaping the cattle market from feedlot to freezer. In this Friday Week in Review, Brock and Jim break down a choppy week for cattle futures. Prices rallied early on the bullish report and cheaper grain, then slipped on technical selling and sluggish cash trade. They also review feeder cattle prices: 500-549 pound steers at $407.87 per hundredweight and 600-649 pound steers at $364.21. Lighter calves are leading the market. The hosts cover USDA slaughter and cold storage data, with red meat production down 4% and beef in freezers down 1% from last year. Jim recalls how scarce calves drew aggressive bidding in 2004. The conversation then widens to global feed, fertilizer, and dairy news: the Philippines' larger corn import quota, EU soymeal rules, digestate fertilizer research, falling EU dairy imports, and Danone's earnings. Producers get three things to watch next week: cash trade, feed costs, and buyer competition.

September cattle placements and marketings were the lowest for the month since USDA began tracking in 1996, and the squeeze is showing up in feeder calf prices. With 500-549 pound steers averaging $407.87 per hundredweight and carrying a healthy premium over futures, producers with weaned calves hold the leverage. Brock and Jim break down the October Cattle on Feed report, which showed 11.372 million head on feed October 1, slightly below last year. They explain why low placements point to tight supply rather than weak demand, and why heavy fall calf movement doesn't contradict that story. They also cover the cash fat cattle breakout after seven weeks in a narrow range, with October live cattle settling at $227.55, and the warning sign of negative packer margins. The conversation then turns to feed and weather: a shrinking U.S. drought area, corn harvest progress, winter wheat emergence, and Ukrainian grain export disruptions that show cheap feed may not last. Jim looks back at the drought of 1996 and how different today's setup is. Brock closes with what to watch: model forecasts that ease lighter feeder prices over four weeks, packer bid behavior, and feed costs.

USDA will add a regional negotiated cash cattle report on Monday, October 26, pooling fed cattle trade from Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. Cash trade has thinned and CME futures have hit multi-month highs before pulling back, so the added price transparency arrives at a pivotal moment for cattle producers. In this Week in Review for October 23, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle market. Medium and Large No. 1 steers in the 500-549 lb class averaged $404.06/cwt, up $7.89 from a month ago. The 600-649 lb class averaged $363.58. The forecast favors lighter calves holding value while heavier weights soften. The hosts also cover drought and pasture conditions. U.S. drought area fell 5.7% on the week, but pasture and range ratings were just 22% good to excellent as of October 11. Corn harvest reached 52% complete and winter wheat planting hit 69%. They also look at uneven feeder and stocker supplies heading into the fall run. Jim shares lessons from the 1996 drought and the start of mandatory price reporting in 2001, along with practical marketing advice for cow-calf producers, stocker operators and buyers.

New World screwworm is back in West Texas cattle. USDA confirmed a case in Pecos County on October 10th, just days after a detection in a dog in Brewster County. With feeder supplies running heavy and pastures still stressed, producers face tough sell-or-hold decisions. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the feeder cattle market, where 500-549 pound steers are at $404.06/cwt and 600-649 pound steers are at $363.58/cwt. The model forecast is split, with lightweights firming and heavier calves softening into November. Jim shares his memories of the late-1980s Libya screwworm outbreak and the sterile fly program that ended it. They also discuss why the sterile-fly supply from Mexico matters so much today. They also cover feeder and stocker marketings running 19.3% above the three-year average. Drought coverage is shrinking, but only 22% of pasture and range is rated good to excellent, while corn conditions are improving. The episode closes with tightening global beef supplies, the October WASDE report, live cattle futures at a ten-week high, and questions about consumer demand after the agriculture secretary's comments on beef prices.

exican feeder cattle imports are barely trickling across the border, with just 400 head crossing at Santa Teresa, New Mexico, a port that once handled roughly 40 percent of the flow. A new screwworm detection in Brewster County, Texas, makes a quick reopening even less likely and keeps feeder supplies tight. Brock and Jim break down this week's feeder cattle market, where 500-549 pound steers are at $402.17 per hundredweight, up $1.20 on the week and $19.52 from a month ago. Heavier 600-649 pound steers slipped $2.69 to $358.94. The model points to a small near-term pullback, then firmer prices into November. They also explain why producers shouldn't count on import relief when pricing calves and replacement stockers. The episode also covers volatile CME cattle futures, which rallied to a three-month high after USDA raised its 2026 corn harvest outlook, then dropped on profit-taking before moving higher again. Brock and Jim discuss why setting hedging targets and risk triggers ahead of time beats reacting to headlines. Finally, they review USDA's October WASDE, which lowers 2027 beef production, raises beef imports, and leaves cattle prices unchanged. They also look at why carcass quality and marbling matter as imports grow, and how finish weight decisions affect returns.

Feeder cattle prices climbed again this week, with 500-549 lb steers reaching $401.79/cwt, up $21.89 from a month ago, even as just 17.8% of U.S. cattle purchases now trade on the negotiated cash market. With feeder supplies historically tight and pasture conditions deteriorating, Brock and Jim break down what's driving the rally and what producers should watch next. Brock and Jim review the Friday, October 2 market, including feeder steer prices, price forecasts pointing to a small dip before a push higher, and a choppy week for live and feeder cattle futures. They explain why short-term futures moves rest on a thin cash base and why producers should know exactly how their own cattle are priced. The hosts also examine the supply picture. The July Cattle report showed the beef cow herd down just 0.7%, feeder and stocker marketings ran more than 28% below the three-year average in mid-September, and August placements and marketings were lower. Falling corn futures and swelling corn stocks are helping feedlot margins, but only 19% of pasture and range is rated good to excellent, and drought areas are still up 12% from a month ago. Jim shares lessons from the drought of '96 and the thin cash markets of '99.