November 07, 2026
Good morning! Today is Saturday, November 7th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III argues GOP denials that the Iran War drove Tuesday's midterm wipeout amount to special pleading, with the war fueling persistent inflation and echoing hawks' 2006 attempts to blame earmarks instead of Iraq. Jack Hunter traces how Thomas Massie's warnings against foreign wars, deficit spending, and Israeli influence, which cost him his seat in the most expensive House primary ever, now read almost word-for-word like J.D. Vance's postelection prescription for the party. Andrew Day contends that beyond the war and the economy, demographic transformation enabled the Democratic sweep, with Georgia and Texas flipping and a permanent Democratic majority coming into view ahead of 2028. and now for the details. We begin with the aftermath of Tuesday's midterm elections, which handed Republicans one of the worst drubbings in recent memory. In the days since, a number of prominent GOP voices, including radio host Erick Erickson and outgoing Senator Thom Tillis, have insisted that the Iran War had little to do with the result. Vice President J.D. Vance has publicly pushed back, pointing to internal White House polling, since confirmed by the New York Times, showing that an end to the war in June would have salvaged significant Republican ground. As W. James Antle III writes, this denialism is an exercise in special pleading. Antle argues that Trump's first-term success came from limited military intervention, no new foreign wars, and a tariff regime compatible with inflation running below two percent. The second term, he writes, leaned into what he calls me-too progressive neoconservatism dressed in populist garb. Antle acknowledges tariffs have added to the affordability squeeze, particularly in farm states, but contends the Iran War is the single biggest driver of persistent inflation, keeping gasoline and diesel prices elevated and preventing the Federal Reserve from cutting rates. He compares the current moment to 2006, when hawks tried to blame earmarks rather than Iraq for Republican losses. The question Antle leaves hanging: how many more times will congressional Republicans listen to the same voices and get the same result. Staying with the midterm fallout, Vice President Vance posted on X this week a pollster's four-point list of what Republicans must do to win back defectors: end the war, focus on cost of living, put America First, and change the U.S. relationship with Israel. Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie replied with an image of a red cap reading "Massie Was Right About Everything," and offered to send one to the Vice President. As Jack Hunter reports, Massie had warned his party for years. He endorsed Donald Trump in October 2024 on the premise that Trump would prevent needless wars abroad. When the administration launched its war with Iran in March, Massie resisted, remained a fiscal hawk, and questioned Israeli influence on U.S. policy. For that, Hunter writes, Trump teamed with pro-Israel billionaires to defeat Massie in the most expensive House primary in American history this past May. After Democrats' strong showing in the 2025 off-year elections, Massie publicly urged Republicans to quit funding foreign wars, put farmers before corporations, reduce spending to control inflation, and put America before Israel. Hunter notes that list reads almost identically to Vance's postmortem. A number of Democrats, he observes, ran this cycle sounding more like the 2024 Trump, and more like Massie, than the current administration. Hunter concludes that the America First message remains viable, and largely untried. Our next story examines the demographic contours of Tuesday's result. Andrew Day writes that while the Iran War and its economic consequences drove voter frustration, the scale of the Democratic sweep was enabled by America's racial and demographic transformation over the past several decades. Day points to Georgia, once reliably Republican and now minority white, which returned Jon Ossoff to the Senate and elected Keisha Lance Bottoms as governor. He points to Texas, where only 37 percent of residents are white and where Hispanic voters not only shifted blue but turned out in large numbers. Kansas, Ohio, and South Carolina told similar stories. Day argues the Democrats are heading toward what he calls a permanent majority. He cites two facts for readers to weigh: no Republican presidential candidate since Herbert Hoover has won a majority of any nonwhite racial group, and America is projected to be majority nonwhite by around 2045. He acknowledges the factors that have slowed this trend, including a whiter voting electorate, Republican gains with Hispanic voters, working-class white realignment, and countermajoritarian institutions like the electoral college and the Senate. But he contends the 2024 multiracial coalition thesis was wishful thinking, noting that Trump's po