The duration of the Iran conflict will determine near-term market moves, says Ahmed Riesgo. However, he thinks markets are expecting a TACO trade, and if that narrative is upended the move down could be bigger; sustained oil prices could force a de-escalation. Despite this, he thinks the U.S. will remain relatively insulated, and thinks the dollar can stay high and we will avoid a recession. Ahmed breaks the AI trade down into sectors and how he thinks it will mature out of growth companies into defensive plays.
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