The Kamala Cavalry

Harry unpacks Trump’s victory with Mike Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and the Defend Democracy Project and perhaps the nation’s #1 authority on polls and their foibles. Podhorzer resists the conventional wisdom that the election result is best explained by demographic shifts among certain voters such as Hispanic men or white women. If what's happened here happened in the Hungarian or Turkish elections, we wouldn't be looking at their exit polls to understand what happened. He rather analyzes the seeds of Trump’s victory in a series of developments since 2008, including Supreme Court decisions and an outpouring of money from third parties. Podhorzer avers that Trump’s policies have virtually no support in the electorate, pointing out how Trumpian candidates fared in down ballet races; however, Trump’s success traces to a persuasive embodiment of widely held attitudes, in particular anti-incumbency, which has been a potent force around the world since COVID. That suggests that when Trump begins to put policies into effect, for example the promised mass deportation, it will prompt an electoral backlash. Podhorzer’s core argument about the election is that while it was legal in the sense of not turning of quirky contingencies, it was not legitimate because it failed the fundamental test of expressing the true consent of the governed.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Harry sits down in a live conversation with Bill Kristol, one of the most influential voices in America political life for the last 35 years and a veteran of high official service in two Republican administrations. Kristol was an early and ardent opponent of Donald Trump and a founder of Republicans for the Rule of Law.  Harry and he talk about his New York childhood in a conservative hothouse, his early academic success as a political philosophy professor, his transition to the practical hurly-burly world of politics, and his long stint editing the most influential magazine of conservative political thought, the Weekly Standard. They then go at length into why Trump is such a pernicious and divisive figure in America, the concrete threats he presents if elected again, and the role of the Republican Party in maintaining his influence, notwithstanding widespread contempt for him.  Along the way, they explore the social and political explanations for Trump’s rise and what needs to happen to restore America to a healthy two-party democracy.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

For the last episode of the 2024 presidential campaign, a stellar roundtable of David Frum, Jen Rubin and Stuart Stevens wrestles with Trump’s over-the-top vicious rhetoric and considers whether the country may be on the precipice of electing a fascist. We go on to consider the strange late-campaign factor of Elon Musk, and move to Harris’s closing argument, and its emphasis on civility, closing with some tentative observations about what lies ahead for the country over the next several weeks.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As part of the Talking San Diego series, Harry sits down with Nancy Pelosi for a wide-ranging conversation centering on her new book, “The Art of Power.” Pelosi takes us through her entry into Congress as a 46-year-old housewife through the great legislative triumphs of her tenure as speaker, clearly among the most successful in American history. She discusses her approach to leadership and the particular challenges posed by the conduct of Donald Trump and his allies, including their regular departure from the truth. A great conversation with the Speaker’s graciousness, savvy, poise, and judgment on full display.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Going into the campaign’s last week, there is a mile-wide chasm between the candidates in their messages & styles, but not a millimeter between them in the popular vote polls. Harris’s closing argument is emphasizing the grave dangers Trump presents to constitutional rule, but it’s not clear it’s getting through to any new voters. A fantastic roundtable—Beto O’Rourke, Tara Setmayer, & Ali Vitali—join Harry to analyze what’s happening in the final days of the tightest election in a generation.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Harry talks with Bob Bauer, the most prominent Democratic political lawyer of the last generation, about his new book, “The Unraveling.”  The book, analyzes the contributions of lawyers to the politics-as-blood-sport that is our inheritance from the last 40 years of national campaigns. Looking back on a lifetime of representation of candidates, officials, and political institutions like the White House, Bauer analyzes the warrior’s role, including pushing on the truth and demonizing the enemy. Many of these excesses helped pave the for the far greater and more vicious dishonesty of the Trump era. Bauer ends with an extended prescription for restoring ethics and a sense of institutional values to political lawyering.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As one of our guests this week puts it, we know the dartboard but we don’t know what area to pinpoint. There has been little concrete indication of movement in the basic dynamic of the election, which means that we need to stare head on at the grim possibility of a Trump victory, and ask why the sense of panic isn’t greater, including among Republican officials who know Trump best. Susan Glasser, Charlie Sykes, & Jacob Weisberg contrast Harris’s vigor w/ Trump’s continued decline & read the sparse tea leaves.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Harry and Molly trade off political and legal questions in their latest mashup. As usual, they cover lots of territory on both the legal and political terrains, including Trump’s insistence that he is better for Israel, the status of the various Trump cases, including if Trump wins, the Supreme Court’s reaction to public discontent, whether the justice system is biased towards white men, whether Vance represents “Trumpism Without Trump,” FEMA lies, and a whole lot more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

T minus 22 and the two campaigns are a study in contrasts. Harris is prospecting for new voters w/ a broad media strategy, inc niche podcasts, while Trump digs deeper into the dark recesses of MAGA voters searching for supporters who sat the last two elections out. The hurricane is a vivid reminder of all that can’t be predicted, & an illustration of the damage wrought by Trump’s lies. A great trio of political experts—Jon Alter, Mara Liasson, & Bob Shrum—joins Harry to piece it all together.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

When Judge Tanya Chutkan abruptly unsealed Jack Smith’s 165 page brief describing the evidence he proposes to use to convict Donald Trump of trying to steal the 2020 election, there was a mad dash of activity as we all scrambled to mine the best nuggets of information; and there were many of them. Read of the brief reveals a whole other series of insights that have been overlooked or under reported to date. Harry talks with the ever-tenacious and insightful Marcy Wheeler, a.k.a. the empty wheel, and in a detailed 45-minute conversation, the two exchange and analyze the most important outstanding revelations in the brief and bear down on what the additional key points reveal about Smith’s case and the likely course of litigation ahead.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.