Beware the Market's 'Expectations Bubble'

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Chris Pavese back to the show. Chris is the president and chief investment officer of Broyhill Asset Management. A value-oriented investment firm, Broyhill prioritizes safe, long-term success. Chris kicks off the show by sharing a few book recommendations and explaining all about Broyhill. He covers how he got his start at the company, what differentiates it from other asset managers, and its core value-investing philosophy. As Chris notes, we've seen one of the longest stretches of value underperformance in history. However, Broyhill has kept pace with the S&P 500 Index over the past decade, despite not holding the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and half of the portfolio being in foreign markets. (0:43) Next, Chris explains what closed-end funds are and why they see such major swings in sentiment. He also gives his macro outlook in regard to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and what it means for the economy. Chris highlights the fact that today's market is one of the most concentrated in history. But as he points out, there are pockets of value in many areas, especially internationally. And despite all the geopolitical turmoil, he advises against abandoning equities completely. (19:59) Finally, Chris discusses the importance of having a margin of safety and practicing common-sense risk management. He also mentions that the Biden administration is going hard with antitrust regulation and blocking a lot of deals, which is causing wide spreads in stock price when mergers and acquisitions are announced. Broyhill uses this merger-arbitrage strategy a fair amount to get easy money. Plus, Chris shares Broyhill's underwriting methods to gauge a business's intrinsic value. (40:08)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Pete Carmasino back to the show. Pete is chief market strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's also editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin PowerTrader newsletters. With more than 25 years of experience in the financial-services industry, Pete joins the podcast to share some of his wisdom on sector rotations, pullbacks, and the housing market. Pete kicks off the show by talking about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, unemployment ticking higher, and the difficulty bond managers are having with timing the market. He also shares his thoughts on the Sahm Rule indicator, which says we're currently in a recession. Pete believes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will only do a 25-basis-point rate cut, but that ultimately Japan will be the deciding factor in Powell's decision. This leads to a conversation about sector rotation and which sectors are outperforming today. (0:43) Next, Pete gives pointers on how to find investing opportunities within market rotations and pullbacks. He explains that a lot of the sectors that are thriving today serve as bond proxies, and a lot of the individual stocks that investors are flocking to are safe havens that pay high dividends. After, Pete talks about the trend in oil and gas prices over the past two years and how it has been influenced by the White House's efforts to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (18:46) Finally, Pete shares why he believes the housing market is on its way to reaching an "equilibrium" between buyers and sellers. He says housing prices can stay high (benefiting sellers) while interest-rate cuts will lower mortgages (benefiting buyers). Pete also cites increases to the lifetime gift/estate tax exemption as a reason for the influx of competitive all-cash housing transactions. (34:31)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Aaron Edelheit back to the show. Aaron is the founder and CEO of private investment firm Mindset Capital. He joins the podcast to talk about his investing philosophy... the importance of relieving mental stress... and all things cannabis – from its "great replacement" of alcohol to its legalization in more and more states. Aaron begins with a story about how he received advice from the legendary Charlie Munger on the "price of admission" of being an investor. He explains that this advice made him reflect on his own strengths and realize that he wanted to exclusively do long-term investing rather than trading. This leads to a conversation about investor psychology and mental strain. Aaron shares a few tips for relieving the anxiety surrounding investing, from turning off your phone and computer one day a week to doing hot yoga. (1:37) Next, Aaron talks a bit about his investing background, his career path, and how he finds opportunities where others aren't looking. Today, he believes the big opportunity is in cannabis stocks. He explains that certain names in this industry are breaking out despite the lack of federal reform. Aaron also drops a non-cannabis name that he's interested in and gives an alternative perspective on value stocks. (22:44) Finally, Aaron compares today's investing landscape with that of the 1990s. He shares that there's much more financing of private companies today, which stops them from going public for longer (if at all). After, Aaron makes his case for cannabis stocks. He believes that they will eventually steal market share from drug companies and alcohol producers once more people realize the benefits and switch over. (40:54)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brody Mullins to the show. Brody is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter and author of the new book The Wolves of K Street. He joins the podcast to share insights from his two-plus decades spent investigating the Washington political scene.  Brody kicks off the show by discussing his history reporting on antitrust regulation. He notes that recently, both major political parties in D.C. have become less friendly to Big Tech companies and are using antitrust regulation to slow their growth. After, Brody talks a bit about how he got started in journalism, the importance of holding those in power accountable, and why he has dedicated his life to investigating companies. (1:27) Next, Brody shares some details about his book. He points out that for most of this country's history, companies had very little influence in Washington. Things only changed in the 1970s once the economy cratered and stagflation hit. Then, companies began to lobby in order to twist regulations and gain an advantage in the market. Brody also explains lobbying in simple terms, including how lobbyists raise money for members of Congress. He argues that legal loopholes and undisclosed funds to influence constituents have made companies nearly untouchable. (15:10) Finally, Brody discusses why there's still hope for the American people to fight back. He explains that negative public perception about these big, powerful corporations (such as Amazon and Google parent Alphabet) has influenced antitrust regulators to begin taking action. He also talks about insider trading among members of Congress and emphasizes that all of these conflicts of interest are not limited to one party. (33:38)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Greg Diamond back to the show. Greg is a fellow analyst at Stansberry Research and editor of the trading advisory Ten Stock Trader. With nearly two decades' worth of experience trading and managing every asset class, Greg is an expert at technical analysis and interpreting market cycles. Greg kicks things off by reviewing the inflection points he predicted last time he was on the podcast. He explains what these time cycles mean and how they've influenced his trading strategy this year. He also discusses the upcoming presidential election and how crucial it is for investors to put aside their biases. According to Greg, the market's wider emotional reactions to the election could present some fantastic buying opportunities. (0:55) Next, Greg breaks down famed trader W.D. Gann's technical strategies into simple terms. He emphasizes that the "why" in market cycles is not really important. What matters is whether history is repeating or not. Greg warns of cycle inversions, however, and points out that many charts and algorithms in technical analysis just reflect human emotion. Investors will naturally reach different conclusions about the market, which creates volatility. (17:03) Finally, Greg talks about short-term trading versus holding stocks for the long term. He shares that this presidential election is the most excited he has been about trading since 2022. Greg foresees "an exceptional trading season" after a fairly boring start to the year. And he hammers home that investors should be careful of increased volatility for the next few months and possibly even the next few years. (39:41)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott back to the show. Bob is the co-founder, chief investment officer, and CEO of Unlimited. The investment firm uses machine learning to replicate the index returns of hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity. Bob explores a wide range of topics in the podcast, from counteracting inflation with certain investments to the worsening future of globalization. Bob kicks off the show by talking about the importance of holding yourself accountable with investing and about bonds in relation to the Federal Reserve's next moves. Many investors are expecting an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, but as Bob points out, the Fed may not live up to those expectations. He also discusses the flaws of the 60/40 portfolio in today's market, why you should hold gold as part of your portfolio, and two primary factors that could contribute to a long-term inflationary environment. (1:02) Next, Bob explores ways to properly balance your portfolio to preserve wealth and minimize volatility. This leads to a conversation about Treasury inflation-protected securities. Bob describes why they're a better investment today than they were a few years ago and what gives them an edge over nominal bonds. After, he discusses the supply-and-demand imbalance in natural resources, oil's supply sensitivity versus precious metals, and the green-energy movement. (20:57) Finally, Bob makes his case for investing in natural resource companies and warns listeners about roll costs when trading in the futures market. He then talks from a macro perspective about productivity in relation to AI. As he explains, AI has not yet led to large productivity advances like we saw with the advent of the personal computer. (37:58)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brent Cook back to the show. Brent is an economic geologist, as well as the founder and senior adviser of newsletter company Exploration Insights. With more than 30 years of experience in property economics and geology evaluations – spanning 60-plus countries – Brent has seen it all. He is one of the most credible, successful, and knowledgeable mining-stock investors in the world. If you invest in mining stocks, this episode is an absolute must-listen experience. Brent kicks off the show by discussing what's happening at Yellowstone and what he learned  from attending Rick Rule's mining conference. Brent warns investors to beware of mining and exploration companies that are picking up old, "dead" projects and redrilling holes, purely to bump up their share price and raise capital. After, Brent details a bit about his career history and how he ended up in geology. (0:43) Next, Brent discusses what investors should look for when trying to find a mining company  worth buying. This includes the narrative of the broader economy, the risk profile, and knowing what kinds of results you want to see from the company in terms of drill results. As he explains, folks should seek high-margin companies with good management teams and with deposits in friendly jurisdictions. He lists off several regions and countries that he believes look promising today, plus some complications he has faced in the past. (19:21) Finally, Brent names a copper-mining company that he's interested in today. It has water  rights, no environmental liabilities, and a project that looks auspicious. He also shares a gold-mining company he likes that's developing a very high-grade deposit in Australia. Brent then explains the difference between mining and extracting gold and copper, and he makes a bullish case for the red metal. (34:02)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Rudi Fronk back to the show. Rudi is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Seabridge Gold (SA). With more than 35 years of experience in the gold industry, Rudi is an expert in his field. He joins the podcast to talk all about precious metals mining, future opportunities for gold and copper, and what sets his company apart from the rest. Rudi begins by giving a brief history of how he got into gold mining. He shares the reason he started Seabridge with shareholder value in mind. He also breaks down some of the risks involved in mining – including working in politically unstable countries – and why he'll never build another mine again. After, he talks a bit about the technical aspects of drilling, exploration, and the process behind estimating how much gold is in the ground. (1:14) Next, Rudi discusses potential joint-venture opportunities with leading mining companies for Seabridge's KSM property, mainly thanks to increased demand for copper. He also talks about the importance of permitting, catalysts that could move Seabridge's share price higher, offsetting share dilution, and early-stage projects that are in the works. And Rudi makes his case for why gold is entering a new, interesting bull market. (16:55) Finally, Rudi shares his opinion on bitcoin, talks further about soaring copper demand, and delves into Seabridge's goal of giving back physical gold to investors. As he explains, the KSM property is expected to produce more than 1 million ounces of gold per year for the first 33 years. And 35% to 49% of gold produced will be returned to the company. (33:56)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by investor and bestselling author Larry McDonald. Larry founded The Bear Traps Report, an investment newsletter that looks at global political and systemic risks when making actionable trades. He is also a frequent contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business News. Larry kicks off the show by sharing his history as a trader at Lehman Brothers and how certain parts of today's market mirror the 2008 crash. He notes that commodities are extremely cheap while semiconductors just hit an all-time high. Larry predicts that capital will migrate back toward real assets. He also discusses what a second Donald Trump presidential term would mean for the bond market, the huge risk with inflation, and a possible bright spot for the housing market as Baby Boomers age. (1:01) Next, Larry breaks down his trading strategy involving capitulation. He brings up the extreme 20% discount in copper today and makes a five-year bull case for natural gas. This leads to a conversation about the current hot stocks in artificial intelligence ("AI"). Larry says that the AI mania has gotten so bad, chief financial officers at tech companies have to invest in AI even if they don't want to, for fear of losing their jobs. He believes we're in the early stages of an unwinding. And he notes that many companies adjacent to AI, like those relating to the electrical grid, have been left for dead. (17:36) Finally, Larry explains that the pain cycles following market bubbles should be longer, but quantitative easing has gotten in the way of that natural process. Bad businesses used to be cleaned out, but now they're able to survive. Larry condemns "evil" passive investing and talks about how much worse the practice has gotten in the past decade and a half. He then lists off a few specific stocks he finds attractive today and advises investors to be careful about buying dips. (36:56)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague Mike Barrett back to the show. Mike is editor of Select Value Opportunities and senior analyst of Extreme Value. He joins the podcast to talk extensively about valuations, why you should never pay too much for a stock, and the opportunities he sees in the market today. Mike kicks off the episode by giving updates on his pecan plantation and his weekly Select Value Opportunities newsletter. He explains that this service helps subscribers beat the market while taking on less risk. The portfolio has returned about 14.5% since inception and has outperformed its benchmark for nearly 80 straight weeks. Mike's secret to outperformance is his system... It focuses on valuations and gives daily rankings of 100 well- known stocks. That way, subscribers can enter positions at an ideal moment. Mike emphasizes the importance of valuation and reminds listeners that it's a metric for future performance. (1:34) Next, Mike analyzes the differences between valuing stocks in public markets and his past experience with valuing real estate in private markets. Plus, he talks more about momentum being another important factor in picking stocks and how valuations have changed in recent times. As Mike explains, the first year he started his service, only 5% of stocks were overvalued. Now, in the past year, 30% are. This is "unprecedented" and a "warning sign" that investors should be aware of. Still, Mike's system can help prevent huge losses. (19:28) Finally, Mike gives his opinion on the overall market action and the broader economic picture. He brings up market cycles, his belief that unemployment is about to be a big issue, and factors that will lead gold and silver prices higher from here. He points out that there are fewer higher-paying jobs available now and that most growth has been in lower-paying jobs. This is skewing the jobs data. And he also discusses the importance of the housing sector when it comes to inflation. (37:27)