How Do Polls Work? (General Election 2024)

What do the manifestos say about tax, spending, and the pound in your pocket? The team deep dives into the party manifesto offers on money and the economy for the 2024 general election, comparing and contrasting pledges, and what they might mean for Scotland.Part of a series looking at the 2024 party manifestos. For more coverage on more manifesto topics, subscribe to Podlitical on BBC Sounds, or visit the BBC News website.

Martin Geissler sits down with Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross. It’s fair to say it’s been a rough campaign for the Tories, but is it all doom and gloom in the camp? In this audio version of the BBC Scotland Sunday Show interview, Martin asks Ross about his policies, his plans for the future, and the ups and downs of a few weeks on the campaign trail.Part of a series of interviews with party leaders over the course of the general election campaign. To hear them all, subscribe to Podlitical on BBC Sounds, or tune in to the Sunday Show every Sunday from 10am on BBC One Scotland and Radio Scotland.

Martin Geissler sits down with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. The polls suggest Labour are doing well just now – but of course, two weeks is a long time in politics. Can they keep up the pace they’ve set themselves? In this audio version of the BBC Scotland Sunday Show interview, Martin asks Sarwar about tax, just how Labour will get that growth they need to fund their pledges, immigration, and independence.Part of a series of interviews with party leaders over the course of the general election campaign. To hear them all, subscribe to Podlitical on BBC Sounds, or tune in to the Sunday Show every Sunday from 10am on BBC One Scotland and Radio Scotland.

This week, investigations into bets on the general election, and talk of tactical votes. As the Conservative Party’s director of campaigning is investigated by the Gambling Commission for placing a bet on the timing of the general election, alongside a Tory candidate and one of Rishi Sunak's closest aides, the team discusses the news from the campaign trail and what they've been up to this week. Also, Lucy, Rajdeep, and Phil chat tactical voting, just how much it will play into this election, and why there are more candidates than ever for voters to choose from.

How do political polls work, and why do different polls have different projections? Podlitical sits down with Rachel Ormston, Research Director for Ipsos in Scotland, and Mark Diffley, a pollster from Diffley Partnership, to talk all things polling. How do pollsters collect and collate their data, and why exactly are "MRP" polls so in vogue right now? The team talk through why Scotland is tricky to poll this election, how polls are "projections" not "predictions", why pollsters are paranoid, and ask if there really more polls than ever this election, or does it just feel that way?

How can parties "win" the general election, and how might they define winning? The team look at the possible routes to victory that the Scottish and UK parties could take, both likely and unlikely, and what it tells us about the current political landscape of the UK. What is the strategy behind the Conservatives' warning of a Labour supermajority, what might a successful election look like for second-or-third party in Westminster candidates SNP, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK, and what do the currently released manifestos tell us about targets?

The team discuss the Debate Night Scottish Leaders' debate. Following a fiery hour, how did the leaders set out their pitches to the Scottish electorate, how did Scottish leaders differ from Westminster counterparts, and how did the audience react to their pledges and promises? From cost of living to independence, the team analyse the performances and claims made by Anas Sarwar from Scottish Labour, Douglas Ross from the Scottish Conservatives, John Swinney from the SNP, Alex Cole-Hamilton from the Scottish Liberal Democrats and Lorna Slater from the Scottish Greens.

The Scottish Tory leader announces his resignation, the first manifestos launch, and more. Following the bombshell news that Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross is intending to resign that role after the general election, the team discuss how this might effect campaigning, how parties may use the news in the upcoming Scottish leaders debate, and what it means for Holyrood on July 5th. What other plans have parties made ahead of the debate? As the first manifestos begin to appear, with more on the way, the team analyses another week on the campaign trail, including where the parties are in terms of pledges and optics, the latest campaign stunts, and Phil recalls the time he nearly jumped out of a plane with the Lib Dems.

Martin Geissler sits down with Helen McDade of Reform UK. Reform UK is Nigel Farage’s latest political vehicle. They’re a broad church, united it seems by an opposition to immigration, but does Scotland share that same sentiment? In this audio version of the BBC Scotland Sunday Show interview, Martin asks McDade about how she found a home in Reform UK following her career working at environmental charities, and how exactly they want to reform the UK.Part of a series of interviews with party leaders over the course of the general election campaign. To hear them all, subscribe to Podlitical on BBC Sounds, or tune in to the Sunday Show every Sunday from 10am on BBC One Scotland and Radio Scotland.

Martin Geissler sits down with Alba leader Alex Salmond. Alba claim to offer a different vision for Scottish independence, and hope to hoover up some of the pro-independence vote from the SNP and Scottish Green, but they've yet to have a representative elected under their banner. Will this election be the one? In this audio version of the BBC Scotland Sunday Show interview, Martin asks Salmond about his strategy for getting independence, if he has any concerns about splitting the pro-independence vote, and how he thinks Scotland will fare in the Euros.Part of a series of interviews with party leaders over the course of the general election campaign. To hear them all, subscribe to Podlitical on BBC Sounds, or tune in to the Sunday Show every Sunday from 10am on BBC One Scotland and Radio Scotland.