Why Do Autocrats Make Mistakes?

A flurry of back-and-forth diplomacy, a renewed Russian offensive, and a rare outburst of protest in Ukraine. The Kyiv Dispatch with Aaron Schwartzbaum and Fabrice Deprez returns to break down what's actually happening and most importantly, how people on the ground are feeling about it.For more reporting and stories from Ukraine, be sure to follow Fabrice’s newsletter, Eastern Radar.Explore more from the Bear Market Brief. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Are drones the future of war? What lessons can be learned from Ukraine for the Taiwan contingency? To discuss these topics and more, FPRI President Aaron Stein sat down with Lorenz Meier, CEO of Auterion, to discuss drones and the future of war. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Why does Russia play such an important role in geopolitics? If it's because of 'strength'... what does strength even mean? And why do conceptions of Russia's strength vary so extremely? Seva Gunitsky joins Aaron Schwartzbaum on this week’s Bear Market Brief podcast.Related ReadingRussia is both weak and strong - that's the problem by Seva Gunitsky Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

How might combat collaborative aircraft be used to fight a war in Europe? Or the Indo-Pacific? To discuss these questions, and the latest from the YFQ-44A, President Aaron Stein sat down with Andrew Van Timmeren, the director of air dominance systems at Anduril Industries, about what he and the company are working on.FPRI’s new project, Behind the Front, analyzes current and future national security challenges with a focus on the Defense Industrial Base, military procurement, lessons learned from ongoing conflicts, and challenges and opportunities in the technology and space sector. Read more here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Here on the Bear Market Brief, a lot of what we focus on is, simply put, risk: what might happen, and what might it mean?On this episode, geoeconomic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to delve in the discipline of Political Risk: how does one "do" the field?Bear Market Brief features a weekly newsletter and a monthly podcast that strives to be a resource for specialists, generalists, and anyone with an interest in the post-Soviet space. We provide a platform for analysis, particularly for emerging area experts and academics, and a space for even-handed, fact-based conversations in hopes of improving Russia/Eurasia analysis and coverage. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Listen to Part 1 here.In this special two part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol during the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war from April 2022 to September 2024. In Part 2, Yevgeniy details his time in captivity in Russia’s Mordovia prison, the circumstances of his eventual release in a prisoner exchange in September 2024, and reflects on his ordeal and the conflict as a whole. Please be advised that this episode contains content that may be disturbing to some listeners. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this special two-part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol during the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war from April 2022 to September 2024. During this time Malik faced daily beatings and torture. In Part 1, Yevgeniy explains what it was like to be a prisoner of war in Russian prisons, and what the thousands of Ukrainian prisoners of war still face every day.Please be advised that this episode contains content that may be disturbing to some listeners.Part 1 - Chapters* Introductions - 2:26* Setting the scene in Mariupol - 5:04* Negotiating surrender - 14:43* Surrender at the bridge - 18:25* Arriving in Sartana - 20:29 * Time in Olenivka prison -22:19* Transfer into Russia - 26:37* Time in Ryarsk prison - 30:27* Interrogations - 46:25* A Day in Ryarsk - 56:18 Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week technologist Joel Burke, author of the recently published Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution, joins Indra Ekmanis on the Baltic Ways podcast.He shares his insights on Estonia’s rise as a leader in e-government, technological exports in a globalized world, and what the US has to learn from Estonia in a moment of disruption. Baltic Ways is a podcast from the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Since November of last year, the small country of Georgia has seen daily protests against its increasingly authoritarian government. For over 150 straight days Georgians have been in the streets demanding that their country return to the path of European integration, and halt what they describe as its slide toward becoming a Russian client state. But the Georgian government has not budged, cracking down on the protests, sometimes with violence, and refusing to consider the protestors’ demand for new elections. How might this all end, and what does Georgia’s plight mean for the country itself, for Europe, and for the US? To discuss these questions, former senior Georgian government officials Batu Kutelia, Dato Sikharulidze, and Miro Popkhadze join Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Report in Short Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with András Tóth-Czifra about his recent report, “The Kremlin’s Balancing Act: The War’s Impact On Regional Power Dynamics.” In the report, Tóth-Czifra explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.The Kremlin's centralization drive has manifested in several ways, including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy.These changes have created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. The sustainability of the Kremlin's strategy is uncertain, and risks intensifying tensions and worsening government instability.András Tóth-Czifra is a Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and contributing author for FPRI's Bear Market Brief. You can also read more of his analysis in No Yardstick. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe