Jobs Weakness Fuels Bond Rally as Markets Eye CPI and Fed Cuts - Market Update by Matt Graham

This podcast segment examines FHA compare ratios, the risks and rewards of outsourcing, and how smaller lenders can stay competitive by focusing on efficiency, niche products, and smart partnerships.------------------------------------------------------------------Alice Alvey, Master CMBVice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home MortgageShe handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

This podcast segment analyzes recent CPI and PPI data, the 10-year Treasury’s bounce at 4%, and why the Fed’s dot plot will be the key signal for future rate cuts.-----------------------------------------------------Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son, where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

09.16.25 Is The Fed An "Elevator Operator?"-----------------Don't jump bullish bonds, don't jump off that roof.You've got lower yields ahead of you; you're still in your youth.Bears give anything to have gains like you.Is the mortgage market an elevator going up or down?With the 10-year yield breaching at 4%, what occurs next: 4.20 or 3.80? Economic news continues to provide a plethora of bullish and bearish inflation and growth indicators, but bulls have the edge.To go significantly below 3.80 requires an accelerated decline in Europe, surprisingly negative data from China, or the US showing significantly weaker inflation and growth.Jay said, "All I ever wanted to be was an elevator operator. Can you help me, please?"These views are mine. Fans Don’t Jump at TMSpotlight.-----------------Song: Elevator Operator (2015) Courtney Barnett

This podcast segment unpacks the MBA’s GSE reform principles and conservatorship exit, highlighting priorities around competition, capital standards, and a federal backstop to protect the housing market.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communications at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

In this episode of the AI Update, David Lykken welcomes Kevin Popovic—better known as The Idea Guy—to discuss how AI can amplify, not replace, human intelligence. Drawing on his work with LoanWorks, his university teaching, and his upcoming book Amplified, Kevin explains why leaders must stop treating AI like Google and start treating it as a tool for reimagining business models. He shares practical examples of using generative AI to identify the right problems, design real solutions, and unlock opportunities that traditional thinking often misses.

In this episode of Lykken on Lending, David Lykken welcomes Donn Healy, music producer turned fintech innovator, to explore how AI and blockchain are reshaping financial access. From empowering artisans in developing economies to redefining mortgage lending with microfinance and decentralized systems, Donn shares his vision for a more inclusive future. Listeners will hear how technology can create fairness, transparency, and opportunity across industries—and why mortgage professionals should be paying close attention to these emerging models.

The Lykken on Lending Weekly Mortgage Update delivers expert commentary and timely insights from across the mortgage industry. Each episode features a curated lineup of respected thought leaders and analysts:Adam DeSanctis with the MBA Mortgage Minute, providing key updates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.Les Parker’s TMSpotlight offers a macroeconomic perspective with his signature musical parodies.Matt Graham of MBS Live, breaking down market activity and interest rate movements.David Kittle, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, sharing insights on mortgage originations and industry trends.Alice Alvey of Union Home Mortgage, delivering essential regulatory and legislative updates.Allen Pollack, with the Tech Report, spotlighting emerging technologies impacting mortgage operations.Bill Corbet, presenting Bill's Bullet Commentary with focused insights on loan servicing and capital markets.Marc Helm, offering Marc’s Rant, an unfiltered take on operational and agency-related developments.Together, this expert panel brings clarity, relevance, and a touch of personality to the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.

In this week’s discussion, our expert panel digs into the hot question dominating the mortgage market: will the Fed cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September—and what will that really mean for borrowers? With unemployment data, CPI expectations, and global economic weakness all in play, the team weighs the Fed’s credibility, the risks of waiting, and the very real possibility of a surge in loan locks if rates dip further. The consensus? Don’t sit on the sidelines—encourage clients to take advantage of today’s improving rates and remember that refinancing later is always an option.

This podcast segment explores how AI is transforming mortgage technology and operations, the end of trigger leads shifting lenders toward borrower experience, and growing regulatory caution around using crypto in mortgage underwriting.-----------------------------------------------------Allen Pollack, Tech ConsultantAllen Pollack, a Mortgage & Financial Services Technology Advisor, is a subject matter expert in the mortgage origination process along with software product management and software development.In today’s financial services push to all things Digital, Allen has been helping lenders and financial services solution providers align their digital transformation and technology strategies by removing the human element of risk, and automating processes that drive efficiencies and margins into profits.Over the course of his career, Allen has co-created and developed technology business models that have birthed highly successful, innovative solutions and companies.Allen co-founded and served as CTO of New York Loan Exchange (NYLX), a loan product eligibility and pricing engine (PPE) that made an immediate impact on the industry, scaling the company quickly and forming partnerships with multiple mortgage and financial lending companies. In 2012, Allen was a co-founder of a merger between NYLX and Aklero Risk Analytics that created LoanLogics, A Mortgage Loan Quality and Performance Analytics company. Allen served as CTO where he continued to bring new and innovative product solutions to the market that made a significant impact to mortgage lenders that reduced risk, scaled business channels, and grew profits in a very competitive and highly regulated market.Allen is also is mortgage and finance technology contributor on a weekly live industry podcast, Lykken on Lending, and is launching a new podcast soon to be released, TechStack Radio, dedicated to technology and innovation in Financial Services.

This podcast segment unpacks the new trigger lead rules, the importance of firm offers of credit, and the growing scrutiny around occupancy misrepresentation and mortgage fraud.------------------------------------------------------------------Alice Alvey, Master CMBVice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home MortgageShe handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!