Policymaking Is Not a Science — Yet (Update)

A hit like Hamilton can come from nowhere while a sure bet can lose $20 million in a flash. We speak with some of the biggest producers in the game — Sonia Friedman, Jeffrey Seller, Hal Luftig — and learn that there is only one guarantee: the theater owners always win. (Part two of a three-part series.) SOURCES:Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.Sonia Friedman, Broadway producer.Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.Hal Luftig, Broadway producer.Luis Miranda Jr., political strategist, founding president of the Hispanic Federation, the Northern Manhattan Arts Alliance, Viva Broadway, and The Public Theater.Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.Richard Winkler, Broadway producer.Stacy Wolf, professor of theater at Princeton University. RESOURCES:Theater Kid: A Broadway Memoir, by Jeffrey Seller (2025).Relentless: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America, by Luis Miranda Jr. (2024).Beyond Broadway: The Pleasure and Promise of Musical Theatre Across America, by Stacy Wolf (2019)."‘Hamilton’ Inc.: The Path to a Billion-Dollar Broadway Show," by Michael Paulson and David Gelles (New York Times, 2016)."On the Performing Arts: The Anatomy of Their Economic Problems," by W.J. Baumol and W.G. Bowen (The American Economic Review, 1965). EXTRAS:“How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

It has become fiendishly expensive to produce, and has more competition than ever. And yet the believers still believe. Why? And does the world really want a new musical about ... Abraham Lincoln?! (Part one of a three-part series.) SOURCES:Christopher Ashley, artistic director of La Jolla Playhouse.Quentin Darrington, actor.Joe DiPietro, playwright and lyricist.Crystal Monee Hall, composer, singer, actor.Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.Alan Shorr, Broadway producer.Daniel Watts, writer, choreographer, actor.Richard Winkler, Broadway producer. RESOURCES:3 Summers of Lincoln (2025)“Live Performance Theaters in the US - Market Research Report (2014-2029),” by Grace Wood (IBISWorld, 2024). Leadership: In Turbulent Times, by Doris Kearns Goodwin (2018).Big River (1984) EXTRAS:“How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

Why do so many promising solutions in education, medicine, and criminal justice fail to scale up into great policy? And can a new breed of “implementation scientists” crack the code? SOURCES:Patti Chamberlain, senior research scientist at the Oregon Social Learning Center.John List, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.Lauren Supplee, former deputy chief operating officer at Child Trends.Dana L. Suskind, professor of surgery at the University of Chicago. RESOURCES:“How Can Experiments Play a Greater Role in Public Policy? 12 Proposals from an Economic Model of Scaling,” by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List, Claire Mackevicius, Min Sok Lee, and Dana Suskind.“The Science of Using Science: Towards an Understanding of the Threats to Scaling Experiments,” by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List, and Dana Suskind (The Field Experiments Website, 2019).“Inconsistent Device Use in Pediatric Cochlear Implant Users: Prevalence and Risk Factors,” by K.B.Wiseman and A.D. Warner-Czyz (U.S. National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, 2018). EXTRAS:"Why Do Most Ideas Fail to Scale?" by Freakonomics Radio (2022)."The Price of Doing Business with John List," by People I (Mostly) Admire (2022).Child Trends.Oregon Social Learning Center.T.M.W. Center for Early Learning and Public Health.The Field Experiments Website.

There is no sludgier place in America than Washington, D.C. But there are signs of a change. We’ll hear about this progress — and ask where Elon Musk and DOGE fit in. (Part two of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Benjamin Handel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley.Neale Mahoney, professor of economics at Stanford University.Jennifer Pahlka, founder of Code for America.Richard Thaler, professor of economics at The University of Chicago. RESOURCES:"How Big Is the Subscription Cancellation Problem?" by Giacomo Fraccaroli, Neale Mahoney, and Zahra Thabet (Briefing Book, 2024).Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better, by Jennifer Pahlka (2023).Nudge: The Final Edition, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021)."HealthCare.gov: Case Study of CMS Management of the Federal Marketplace," by Daniel Levinson (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2016). EXTRAS:"Sludge, Part 1: The World Is Drowning in It," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).

Insurance forms that make no sense. Subscriptions that can’t be cancelled. A never-ending blizzard of automated notifications. Where does all this sludge come from — and how much is it costing us? (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Benjamin Handel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley.Neale Mahoney, professor of economics at Stanford University.Richard Thaler, professor of economics at The University of Chicago. RESOURCES:"Selling Subscriptions," by Liran Einav, Ben Klopack, and Neale Mahoney (Stanford University, 2023)."The ‘Enshittification’ of TikTok," by Cory Doctorow (WIRED, 2023)."Dominated Options in Health Insurance Plans," by Chenyuan Liu and Justin Sydnor (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2022).Nudge (The Final Edition), by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021)."Frictions or Mental Gaps: What’s Behind the Information We (Don’t) Use and When Do We Care?" by Benjamin Handel and Joshua Schwartzstein (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018)."Adverse Selection and Switching Costs in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts," by Benjamin Handel (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011). EXTRAS:"People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Update)" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."All You Need is Nudge," by Freakonomics Radio (2021)."How to Fix the Hot Mess of U.S. Healthcare," by Freakonomics Radio (2021)."Should We Really Behave Like Economists Say We Do?" by Freakonomics Radio (2015).

The quirky little grocery chain with California roots and German ownership has a lot to teach all of us about choice architecture, efficiency, frugality, collaboration, and team spirit. SOURCES:Kirk DesErmia, facilities manager in Seward, Alaska.Mark Gardiner, journalist and author.Sheena Iyengar, professor of business at Columbia Business School.Michael Roberto, professor of management at Bryant University. RESOURCES:“Trader Joe’s,” David Ager and Michael Roberto (Harvard Business School Case, 2014).“What Brands Are Actually Behind Trader Joe’s Snacks?,” Vince Dixon (Eater, 2017).Build a Brand Like Trader Joe’s by Mark Gardiner (2012).“When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing?,” Sheena Iyengar and Mark Lepper (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2000).Unlocking Creativity, by Michael Roberto (2019). EXTRAS:“How Can This Possibly Be True?,” by Freakonomics Radio (2016).“How to Save $1 Billion Without Even Trying,” by Freakonomics Radio (2016).

Nearly everything that politicians say about taxes is at least half a lie. They are also dishonest when it comes to the national debt. Stephen Dubner finds one of the few people in Washington who is willing to tell the truth — and it’s even worse than you think. SOURCES:Jessica Riedl, senior fellow in budget, tax, and economic policy at the Manhattan Institute. RESOURCES:"The House Wants to Pass Trump’s Agenda in One Big Bill. Here’s What’s in It." by Margot Sanger-Katz and Alicia Parlapiano (New York Times, 2025)."Correcting the Top 10 Tax Myths," by Jessica Riedl (Manhattan Institute, 2024)."Spending, Taxes, and Deficits: A Book of Charts," by Jessica Riedl (Manhattan Institute, 2024)."Why Did Americans Stop Caring About the National Debt?" by Jessica Riedl (Reason, 2024)."A Comprehensive Federal Budget Plan to Avert a Debt Crisis," by Jessica Riedl (Manhattan Institute, 2024)."When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?" by Jagadeesh Gokhale, Kent Smetters, and Mariko Paulson (The Wharton School of Business, 2023)."The Limits of Taxing the Rich," by Jessica Riedl (Manhattan Institute, 2023). EXTRAS:"Farewell to a Generational Talent," by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

Lina Khan, the youngest F.T.C. chair in history, reset U.S. antitrust policy by thwarting mega-mergers and other monopolistic behavior. This earned her enemies in some places, and big fans in others — including the Trump administration. Stephen Dubner speaks with Khan about her tactics, her track record, and her future. SOURCES:Lina Khan, former commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission and professor of law at Columbia Law School. RESOURCES:"Merger Guidelines" (U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, 2023)."The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications," by Jan De Loecker, Jan Eeckhout, and Gabriel Unger (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019)."US Antitrust Law and Policy in Historical Perspective," by Laura Phillips Sawyer (Harvard Business School, 2019).The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age, by Tim Wu (2018)."Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox," by Lina Khan (Yale Law Journal, 2017)."A Tempest In a Coffee Shop," by Tanya Mohn (New York Times, 2004). EXTRAS:"The Economics of Eyeglasses," by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Should You Trust Private Equity to Take Care of Your Dog?" by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."Are Private Equity Firms Plundering the U.S. Economy?" by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."Is the U.S. Really Less Corrupt Than China — and How About Russia? (Update)" by Freakonomics Radio (2022).

It’s a powerful biological response that has preserved our species for millennia. But now it may be keeping us from pursuing strategies that would improve the environment, the economy, even our own health. So is it time to dial down our disgust reflex?  You can help fix things — as Stephen Dubner does in this 2021 episode — by chowing down on some delicious insects. SOURCES:Paul Rozin, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.Val Curtis, late disgustologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.Sandro Ambuehl, economist at the University of Zurich.Emily Kimmins, R&D lead for the sensory and consumer-science team for Kraft Heinz.Iliana Sermeno, former chef at The Black Ant. RESOURCES:“Stink Bugs Could Add Cilantro Flavor to Red Wine,” by Alex Berezow (Live Science, 2017).“Edible insects: Future Prospects for Food and Feed Security,” by the F.A.O. (United Nations, 2013).“I Hate to Break it to You, but You Already Eat Bugs,” by Kyle Hill (Scientific American, 2013).“Five Banned Foods and One That Maybe Should Be,” by Leah Binkovitz (Smithsonian Magazine, 2012).“Effects of Different Types of Antismoking Ads on Reducing Disparities in Smoking Cessation Among Socioeconomic Subgroups,” by Sarah J. Durkin, Lois Biener, and Melanie A. Wakefield (American Journal of Public Health, 2009).“Flesh Trade,” by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt (The New York Times, 2006).“Feeding Poultry Litter to Beef Cattle,” by Jay Daniel and K.C. Olson (University of Missouri, 2005). EXTRAS:"Why Does Everyone Hate Rats?" by Freakonomics Radio (2025).

To most people, the rat is vile and villainous. But not to everyone! We hear from a scientist who befriended rats and another who worked with them in the lab — and from the animator who made one the hero of a Pixar blockbuster. (Part three of a three-part series, “Sympathy for the Rat.”) SOURCES:Bethany Brookshire, author of Pests: How Humans Create Animal VillainsJan Pinkava, creator and co-writer of "Ratatouille," and director of the Animation Institute at the Film Academy Baden-Württemberg.Julia Zichello, evolutionary biologist at Hunter College. RESOURCES:"Weekend Column: Rat’s End, or, How a Rat Dies," by Julia Zichello (West Side Rag, 2024).Pests: How Humans Create Animal Villains by Bethany Brookshire (2022)."Rats: the history of an incendiary cartoon trope," by Archie Bland (The Guardian, 2015)."Catching the Rat: Understanding Multiple and Contradictory Human-Rat Relations as Situated Practices," by Koen Beumer (Society & Animals, 2014)."Effects of Chronic Methylphenidate on Dopamine/Serotonin Interactions in the Mesolimbic DA System of the Mouse," by Bethany Brookshire (Wake Forest University, 2010)."A New Deal For Mice," by C.C. Little (Scientific American, 1935).