Episode 363: Ayatollah's Algorithm for U.S. Elections

Today, Jess, Morgan, Martha, and Matt discuss this week’s COP29, an annual climate summit where world leaders, policymakers, business executives, and others meet to discuss global emissions reduction goals, and how to finance climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, especially in the developing world. This year’s summit was held in Baku, Azerbaijan, and notable heads of state not in attendance included those from the U.S., France, Russia, India, and China among others.What’s in store for the future of COP? How does U.S. domestic attitudes impact the future of addressing climate challenges? Should we worry about China’s green diplomacy efforts?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lknel1xpohttps://www.euronews.com/green/2024/11/08/a-total-waste-of-time-the-world-leaders-shunning-cop29-over-political-spats-and-lost-confi https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/climate/cop29-baku-azerbaijan.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/climate/trump-climate-cop-negotiations.htmlhttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/11/trump-cop-china-climate/680611/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/kB4aC9Kh-Kc Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jess discuss president-elect Donald Trump’s picks for national security and foreign policy positions in the coming administration. The least surprising of which have been Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) being floated as a strong contender for Secretary of State, Representative Mike Waltz (R-FL-6) being announced as Trump’s National Security Advisor, and Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) being announced as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. However, in a surprise pick, Pete Hegseth, a Veteran and Fox News Weekend commentator has been announced as Secretary of Defense sending shockwaves throughout the beltway. How will president-elect Trump’s cabinet picks impact his foreign policy? How do our adversaries and allies view these picks? Will these picks impact the War in Ukraine?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.politico.com/interactives/2024/trump-cabinet-picks-2025-tracker/ https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/12/trump-transition-personnel-announcements-takeaway-00188936 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trumps-picks-so-far-heres-who-advising-new-president https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trumps-cabinet-whos-been-picked-whos-running-2024-11-12/ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4985802-trump-cabinet-nominees-second-term/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@lestermunson@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/EBsxyK8orjs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Morgan, Bishop, and Jeffrey discuss the collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition, the Traffic Light coalition, after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party, fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party over disagreements in economic policy causing them to withdraw. This has led Germany to have a minority government with Chancellor Scholz saying he would hold a vote of confidence in January, which could pave the way for new elections as early as March.What impacts does President-Elect Trump's return and his economic policies have on German politics? With economic recession and now political instability in Germany, will we see a further rise of the Far-Right? What are the broader implications for the U.S.?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/german-government-crisis-leaves-europe-headless-ahead-of-trumps-return-80cfbfc2 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/world/europe/germany-coalition-collapse-explained.html https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/11/07/how-the-german-governments-collapse-impacts-the-eu https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-governing-coalition-collapses/live-70692143 https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Km07LmbHn-4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, Les, and Amy discuss the results of the 2024 presidential election and its implications for U.S. national security. Early Wednesday morning, former President Donald Trump became President-elect of the United States winning over 270 electoral votes. Alongside winning the presidency, the Republican party won a majority in the Senate and the House is still too close to call.Did foreign policy failures during the Biden administration contribute to the former President’s re-election? How will our adversaries and allies react to a second Trump administration? Where will the focus of the second Trump administration be in foreign policy?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://foreignpolicy.com/projects/2024-us-president-election-live-updates-harris-trump/ https://apnews.com/article/election-day-trump-harris-white-house-83c8e246ab97f5b97be45cdc156af4e2 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/opinion/donald-trump-2024-election.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb&ngrp=mnp&pvid=A9E8BB32-1699-438A-BD40-F936DFE4E2CF https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-vs-harris-us-voters-head-polls-turbulent-campaign-concludes-2024-11-05/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@morganlroach@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/SiH-B0ItRmo Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Jess, and Jeffrey dive into the issue of election interference by malign actors on the eve of the 2024 Presidential election. Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, recently assured voters that “election infrastructure has never been more secure.” Yet, U.S. officials have flagged two fake videos circulating online and publicly identified by the FBI as part of a Russia-backed malign influence campaign aimed at sowing doubt about election security.What are the implications of increasing attempts by foreign malign actors attempting to influence our elections? Are we effectively countering these attempts at influencing or undermining our electoral system?  And perhaps most importantly, is the CISA’s message of a secure election reaching the American people?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/2-more-russian-disinformation-videos-targeting-u-s-election-circulating-online/ https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4967613-fbi-condemns-fake-election-security-videos/amp/ https://apnews.com/article/fbi-russia-georgia-fraud-disinformation-eebea4ab200682ccd3e97fb9f164e6ca https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-01/the-us-cyber-chief-trying-to-get-americans-to-trust-the-election?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczMDY3NTAzNSwiZXhwIjoxNzMxMjc5ODM1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTTTlOU1FEV1JHRzAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI1NjZENkIwRkY1NzQ0Qjk4QjI4QTM2QjkyOTg5QjgyRSJ9.8lvkesmpjuUKfsm5kmjL4I0a9yXcLMA--MSSK1PNU2Q https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-11-01/us-election-security-officials-brace-to-protect-ballots-peopleFollow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/4yBl8CA7xik Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jeffrey discuss recent Chinese diplomatic maneuvering.  Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resolve a long-standing border dispute that has led to violent clashes and it set to meet with new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba before Ishiba meets with the U.S. President. Alongside these meetings, China has lodged its increasing discontent with the growing partnership between North Korea and Russia. What do these diplomatic maneuvers mean, and are they a break from the norm? How does the United States’ presidential election impact the framing of these moves?  Is there a potential wedge between Russia and China?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/world/asia/modi-xi-putin-brics.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/131421bdb5e4-urgent-japan-pm-ishiba-arranging-1st-summit-with-chinas-xi-in-nov.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/31/us/politics/russia-north-korea-troops-china.html https://apnews.com/article/india-china-ladakh-pact-modi-xi-border-dispute-3c071f1a9bedfe453547027a84ebcf9b https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/India-China-complete-Himalayan-troop-pullback-New-Delhi-says https://www.voanews.com/a/china-calls-for-stable-japan-relations-after-ishiba-election-victory/7802773.html https://www.brookings.edu/articles/has-india-made-friends-with-china-after-the-modi-xi-agreement/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/nELaxxTDV2c Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, Bishop, and Jeffrey discuss Georgia’s recent parliamentary election that saw the pro-Russian ruling party Georgian Dream come out on top and keep its majority. However, Georgia’s pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili stated that she did not recognize the results of the election, that the country fell victim to a “Russian special operation,” and protests have seized Tbilsi, the capital.  A partial recount was announced yesterday.What do we make of allegations of Russian interference in Georgia’s election? What does this election and Georgia’s bid for EU membership signify for geopolitics?  What can Western countries do in response to this election?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://apnews.com/article/georgia-russia-election-european-union-8f040cb30e1d9c9e778383cbcbb7b2c1 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/georgia-conducts-partial-vote-recount-after-reports-polling-irregularities-2024-10-29/ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/27/world/europe/republic-of-georgia-election.html https://www.politico.eu/article/georgia-polling-election-showdown-dream-party-votes-europe-candidates/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/georgia-election-results-georgian-dream-dispute-eu-russia-protests/ https://www.rferl.org/amp/georgia-election-protests-russia-eu/33176435.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@morganlroach@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ZzvEpJJRMzY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Jess, Morgan, and Les discuss Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran in response to Iran's October 1st launch of over 200 ballistic missiles targeting Israel. The targets of Israel’s retaliatory strike included Russian-supplied air defenses and military infrastructure, including a secretive military base that has been linked to Tehran’s nuclear weapons program and another base tied to its ballistic missile program.Did the Biden Administration exert any influence on Israeli targeting decisions? What does the restrained messaging from both sides in the aftermath mean? Will these strikes make Iran more dependent on its weakening proxies?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-attack-satellite-photos-gaza-lebanon-wars-0c6ee6a8544268612cb7d49727d8449dhttps://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-on-iran-expose-gap-in-prowess-between-two-arch-foes-aded7cf8?st=cZQewc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-security-council-expected-meet-monday-over-israels-strike-iran-diplomats-say-2024-10-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/satellite-photos-show-israel-hit-iran-missile-fuel-mixing-facilities-researchers-2024-10-26/ https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-war-attack-retaliation-analysis-80a619146abd4f8aee2a7776a8f134d1 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/9YiRhMP1mZA Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Jeffrey, and Andy discuss reports that there’s evidence North Korea has dispatched 3,000 troops to Russia in a potential escalation of the nearly 3-year-old war with Ukraine. They also discuss a Wall Street Journal exclusive report that Russia through its intermediary Iran gave targeting information to Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been targeting and disrupting commercial shipping in transit in the Red Sea. Is the presence of North Korean troops in Russia an indicator of things going well for Russia? Is the Biden Administration handling the global situation well? Does the international rules-based order lack strong leadership?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/24/putin-russia-north-korea-troops/ https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-provided-targeting-data-for-houthi-assault-on-global-shipping-eabc2c2b?mod=hp_lead_pos1 https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-north-korea-war-735ab717dcf92a718adcb68bfbddc653 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@AndyKeiserLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xf_LuHyrGio Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, Jess, and Les discuss the ongoing 16th annual BRICS summit hosted in Kazan, Russia. The three-day summit welcomes its newest members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as well as the UN Secretary-General. The Kremlin touted the summit as “the largest foreign policy event ever held” by Russia.How concerned should the United States and our allies and partners be about BRICS’ influence? What is the incentive for countries to join BRICS? Do these countries, as well as the UN Secretary-General, attending the BRICS summit give Russian President Vladimir Putin legitimacy?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.reuters.com/world/xi-modi-discuss-ukraine-war-with-putin-brics-considers-expansion-2024-10-23/ https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-brics-summit-china-india-d672be9b1ec2ffd0fba608e8a6aca790 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/world/europe/russia-china-brics.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/22/russias-brics-summit-whats-on-the-agenda-and-why-does-it-matter https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/21/europe/putin-russia-iran-china-brics-hnk-intl/index.html https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly3ylwg4eqo https://www.economist.com/international/2024/10/20/putins-plan-to-defeat-the-dollar Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc @NotTVJessJones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/6jHUtX8QYWs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.