Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 2-May

Stocks had a largely uneventful trading session and lost some early-morning strength as the day evolved. Soft-landing narrative traction is the big tailwind for risk sentiment as of late. Another busy day for both economic data and Fedspeak.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 88bps, 117bps, and 140bps respectively. The S&P 500 set a new record close for the first time since 28th of March. Headline CPI a bit cooler than expected in April while core CPI was in line with consensus. Retail sales came in below expectations, while April’s NAHB homebuilder sentiment saw a greater-than-expected drop. Fed’s Kashkari said it would be prudent to sit a while and figure out where inflation is headed.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. The Market's path of least resistance seems to be remaining higher, with investors largely shaking off a hotter headline PPI (with likely some reprieve from limited spillover to PCE and negative revisions). There was nothing particularly incremental from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated skepticism about a rate hike as the next policy move.

US equities finished mixed in largely uneventful Monday trading, spending much of the session near the unchanged mark. Another quiet, low volume session before the market exits a catalyst vacuum starting tomorrow with key inflation and consumption data. NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations noted consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rose in April at both the one- and five-year time horizons.

US equities ended higher this week and largely in waiting mode ahead of next week's CPI reading. Market navigated a largely catalyst-free trading period this week with depressed volumes as it waits for next week's April CPI reading. There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. With Friday's nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week's claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling.

US equities ended higher Thursday, extending the week's upside, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both on pace for third-straight weekly gains after three-straight weekly declines. The market had a generally constructive tone today, though there is still a lot of anticipation for CPI next week. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 231K after weeks near 210K, while continuing claims were in line.

US equities ended mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing up 44bps, while the S&P500 finished flat and the Nasdaq down 18bps. Fed's Collins said getting to 2% target inflation may take longer than expected. Today's auction of $42B of 10-year notes tailed after yesterday's well-received 3Y auction; with $25B in 30Y bonds coming up for sale tomorrow. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen's impact on monetary policy.

US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday in a fairly uneventful trading session. The Fed's Kashkari said he questions policy restrictiveness given inflation data and was the latest central banker to talk about a higher neutral. Today's auction of $58B of 3Y notes stopped through with help from solid foreign demand.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending at session highs. Not much behind today's upside with few catalysts, no real change to any of the key themes, and market volumes low. The Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey said slightly more banks tightened C&I loan standards in Q1 and saw weaker C&I, industrial and residential real estate demand quarter over quarter.

Stocks were higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased early-week declines off of relatively dovish Fed takeaways and an April payrolls report that added some support to the soft landing theme. Wednesday's May FOMC meeting ended with no change to the policy rate as expected, holding at 5.25-5.50%. Data this week offered some mixed takeaways.