Deal Flow Friday

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Mark Kenney, co-founder and CEO of Think Multifamily, a multifamily syndication firm whose track record includes more than 120 deals, 18,000 units, and over $1 billion in closed transactions across 15 states.Mark grew up in Michigan and started buying two- to four-unit properties with his identical twin brother while still in college. He went on to work as a CPA at a Big Four firm, in management consulting, and running his own IT company before he began raising capital for his own syndications in 2015. Think Multifamily focused on heavy value-add deals, some bought at zero to 30 percent occupancy and financed with bridge loans covering 70 to 80 percent of the purchase price plus CapEx. Today Mark coaches and advises operators working through deal-level problems, and he has written a book on the lessons he learned in the downturn.The conversation centers on one of the hardest decisions in multifamily right now: when to keep funding a struggling deal and when to hand back the keys. Mark walks through how floating-rate debt went from the 4 percent range to 10 to 12 percent while rents stalled, collections fell, and insurance and property taxes climbed, including one South Texas insurance bill that jumped from $1.2 million to $3.6 million in a year. He explains how he put too much of his own money into deals while waiting for the market to turn, why loan modifications with 12- to 24-month terms are now resurfacing as problems, how broker opinions of value lost touch with actual offers, and what he learned from exiting 30 deals between 2024 and 2025.David and Mark also discuss the distressed agency debt situations Mark is now being called about, why county-level diligence on evictions, property taxes, and insurance matters, and why a deal should cash flow from day one on actual collections. They cover the depreciation recapture taxes that can hit investors and GPs even on a loss, the trade-offs between fixed and floating debt, prepayment penalties and rate caps, the case for longer holds, and the value of self-managing and outperforming your comps. Mark closes with candid thoughts on the personal toll of failed deals, setting boundaries on personal capital, and his next chapter advising operators and pursuing distressed opportunities.Chapters:00:00 From College Rentals to 120 Multifamily Syndications04:05 How Bridge Debt and Floating Rates Drained Reserves06:47 When Saving a Deal Becomes Good Money After Bad11:38 Insurance Spikes and the Gap Between Broker Values and Real Offers14:33 Seller Capitulation and Distressed Agency Debt Opportunities16:57 Why County-Level Diligence on Taxes, Evictions and Insurance Matters19:49 Stepping In at the Loan Amount and Underwriting Day-One Cash Flow23:29 The Depreciation Recapture Tax Surprise on a Losing Deal25:39 Rethinking Short Holds, Promotes and Long-Term Ownership29:01 Fixed vs. Floating Debt and the True Cost of Prepayment Penalties33:47 What Struggling Operators Are Calling Him About Today40:21 The Personal Toll of Failed Deals and Putting Life in Perspective43:37 Taking Emotion Out and Setting Boundaries on Personal Capital46:27 What's Next for Mark Kenney and Think Multifamilyhttp://www.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfridayLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmoghavem/Substack: https://substack.com/@dealflowfriday

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Dwight Dunton, Founder and CEO of Bonaventure, a vertically integrated real estate investment firm with over $2.9 billion in assets under management and 9,200 apartment units across the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Southeast.With 27 years of experience building Bonaventure, Dwight shares how the firm has carved out a unique niche in tax-efficient real estate investing, leveraging Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs), 1031 exchanges, and 721 UPREIT structures to help investors preserve wealth, defer taxes, and compound capital over the long term.The conversation explores how DSTs and UPREITs are becoming increasingly attractive in today's challenging multifamily environment, particularly for property owners facing declining valuations, loan maturities, and significant embedded tax liabilities. Dwight breaks down how these structures work, why demand is accelerating, and how Bonaventure is developing innovative financing solutions to help investors transition from direct property ownership into diversified real estate portfolios.David and Dwight also discuss the importance of supply constraints versus economic growth when selecting multifamily markets, the advantages of long-term ownership over short-term investment strategies, and why market turbulence is creating new opportunities for well-capitalized operators.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Bonaventure04:11 Why Develop Multifamily When You Can Buy Below Replacement Cost?07:30 Why Supply Constraints Matter More Than Job Growth10:20 The Long-Term Hold Strategy: Five Years to Forever13:07 Understanding DSTs, 1031 Exchanges & TIC Structures18:21 How the 1031-to-721 UPREIT Strategy Works21:14 Using 721 UPREITs as an Acquisition Advantage23:44 Why Demand for DSTs & UPREITs Is Accelerating26:14 Solving High-LTV Challenges With Innovative Gap Financing31:12 Why Bonaventure Focuses on Family Capital35:32 Advice for Operators Entering the DST & UPREIT Business39:35 Opportunity Zones, DSTs & Bonaventure's Growth Strategywww.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday

Sponsored by ApartmentIQ.In Episode 62 of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Will Stark, Director of Revenue and Asset Strategy at NRP Group, to break down how multifamily operators are approaching pricing, lease-ups, concessions, and revenue management in a more competitive market.Will explains how NRP evaluates submarket health, comp sets, asking rents, and concessions when building lease-up strategies, and why operators need to get far more granular than broad market-level data. The conversation also covers renewal strategy, early-bird offers, the growing renter expectation for concessions, and the “game theory” that comes with pricing against nearby competitors.David and Will also discuss how real-time data and AI are changing the revenue-management process, from tracking historical rent and concession trends to combining market data with on-the-ground observations from property tours. Will shares how NRP is beginning to integrate AI into lease-up reviews and reporting to help teams spend less time assembling data and more time making decisions.The episode closes with a discussion on the art versus science of multifamily pricing, why knowing your true comp set matters, and NRP’s “Five Ps” framework: place, price, promotion, product, and people. The key takeaway: price may be the easiest lever to pull, but it should often be the last.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Revenue Management in Multifamily Development03:06 Understanding Lease-Up Strategies and Market Dynamics06:20 Navigating Lease-Up Risks and Pricing Strategies09:08 The Role of Concessions in a Competitive Market11:48 The Game Theory of Multifamily Pricing15:16 Integrating Technology and AI in Pricing Strategies18:16 Future Trends and Strategies for NRP Group19:25 Using AI to Automate Multifamily Reporting21:49 The Art vs. Science of Multifamily Pricing25:36 The Five Ps (not four!) of Multifamily Revenue Strategywww.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday

In Episode 61 of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Zach Haptonstall, CEO and Co-Founder of Rise48, for an operator-to-operator conversation on how multifamily owners are navigating today’s reset.Zach and David break down why the industry can no longer rely on falling interest rates or traditional renovation-driven value-add strategies. Instead, the focus has shifted toward buying at the right basis, protecting day-one cash flow, understanding supply pipelines, and creating value through operations. They discuss the impact of new supply across Phoenix, Dallas, and the Carolinas, aggressive concessions, resident retention, delinquency, and why operational execution has become one of the biggest differentiators in the market.The conversation also dives into how vertically integrated operators are centralizing leasing, collections, evictions, marketing, and property-level staffing to reduce expenses and improve consistency. Zach shares how Rise48 has used scale and technology to monitor competitors, tighten resident qualification standards, generate ancillary income, and streamline payroll and operations across its portfolio.On the capital side, David and Zach discuss what investors are looking for today: stronger locations, lower execution risk, stabilized occupancy, day-one distributions, and deals driven by cap-stack distress rather than severe operational distress. They also explore how lenders are increasingly working with experienced, vertically integrated borrowers and how the growing wave of foreclosures, loan maturities, and forced sales could create opportunities for operators with the infrastructure to execute.The episode closes with Zach reflecting on the mindset required to survive a difficult cycle and why the operators being “forged through fire” today may be best positioned when multifamily fundamentals begin to recover.00:26 Intro: Zach Haptonstall - Rise4800:50 Higher Rates, Inflation & the Multifamily Macro04:09 Does Multifamily Need to be Repriced?12:19 Sun Belt Supply: Phoenix, Dallas & the Carolinas19:19 Operational Strategies for Value Creation28:50 Centralizing Operations for Efficiency31:40 Raising Capital in a Tough Multifamily Market38:19 Investor Preferences in Today's Market40:33 Long-Term Strategies for Acquisitions and Dispositions49:51 The Warrior Mindset in Real Estate Investingwww.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday

In this Multifamily Market Monologue, David Moghavem breaks down what the latest move in interest rates means for apartment investors and why the market may be entering a new phase of the cycle.With the 10-year Treasury approaching 5%, optimism around a quick return to lower rates is fading. David discusses how that shift is changing lender behavior, accelerating foreclosures, and forcing owners, lenders, and buyers to accept a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.At the same time, the operating picture is beginning to improve. ApartmentIQ data shows 69 of 83 major metros posting positive net-effective rent growth over the past 90 days, with the Bay Area leading the country and several previously oversupplied Sun Belt markets beginning to show early signs of stabilization.David explains why improving fundamentals do not necessarily mean multifamily values have bottomed, particularly with financing costs remaining elevated. In this environment, simply buying assets for basis and hoping for cap rate compression is no longer enough.The next phase of multifamily will reward investors who can find a differentiated edge. David explores two strategies he believes are becoming increasingly important: affordable housing and tax-abatement structures that align owners with government housing priorities, and operational excellence through better property management, proprietary portfolio data, and AI-driven decision-making.Chapters:00:17 Reflections on September 11th and New Beginnings02:27 The Ten-Year at 5%, What Does this Mean?04:42 The Impact of High Interest Rates07:23 Foreclosures and Market Sentiment10:58 Analyzing Rent Growth Trends16:28 Adapting to a New Reality in Multifamily18:06 The Shift Towards Affordable Housing20:57 Operational Excellence as a Competitive Edgewww.dealflowfriday.comIG: @DealflowfridayX: @Dealflowfriday

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David sits down with Shervin Lalezari, also known as @DebtCeilingDaddy on X, for a debate that goes beyond the usual real estate conversation and asks a bigger question: where should investors be allocating capital today?Shervin brings a unique perspective across investment banking, tech startups, operating businesses, public equities, and real estate. The conversation breaks down the risk-reward spectrum across asset classes and explores why Shervin believes some of the best opportunities today can be found in concentrated public-market investments, while David makes the case for the operational alpha, leverage, and inefficiencies available in real estate.They dig into how investors actually create an edge, using companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft as examples of how high-quality businesses can become temporarily mispriced. Shervin explains why patience, conviction, valuation, and understanding long-term structural tailwinds matter more than trying to compete with algorithms and traders in the short term.The discussion then zooms out to the macro environment: the K-shaped economy, inflation, AI, America’s debt and deficit, the 10-year Treasury, and why falling Fed Funds rates haven’t necessarily translated into lower long-term borrowing costs. David and Shervin also debate whether capital will eventually rotate out of today’s market winners and back toward beaten-down asset classes like commercial real estate.Finally, Shervin gives his perspective on multifamily, including the headwinds facing markets like Los Angeles, why real estate may be one of the most unloved sectors today, and what could ultimately trigger its rebound. The episode is ultimately a conversation about capital allocation, risk-adjusted returns, finding asymmetric opportunities, and staying positioned for the next major investment cycle.Chapters00:00 IB, Bird, liquor stores — Life Before @DebtCeilingDaddy04:08 Understanding Risk-Adjusted Returns Throughout The Risk Spectrum08:31 Finding an Edge in an Efficient Market — the Google Trade15:16 What Alpha Actually is, the Case for Concentration26:07 Forward Earnings vs. Trailing NOI: Nobody Buys on a T-1229:50 The K-Shaped Economy: Mag 7 Up Top, Workforce Housing Hollowed Out37:09 The Bull Case for America43:20 "Our Generation's Lick": Crypto was a Scam, AI is the Trade46:16 CRE Multifamily Investing from the Perspective of an Outsider — Headwinds vs. Tailwinds48:17 The 10-year is the Whole Ballgame: Fed Short End, Market Long End51:57 America's P&L, Balance Sheet, & Warsh's Case Against QE57:21 Positioned For The CRE Rebound — "This Feels Like My Lick"www.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday

Adam is the founder and CEO of AKTUS AI, a Silicon Valley company building custom AI systems for finance and real estate — and a firm Trion has been working with directly. He has a PhD in computer science, spent 15 years in AI and machine learning, and was product lead for data and ML at Twitter before co-founding Flowcode.In this episode, David and Adam get into why out-of-the-box AI keeps failing on real estate work, what actually separates a prototype from a production system, and why Adam thinks the org chart itself is the thing AI ends up rewriting.What we get intoWhy generic AI can't do real estate. The models were trained on public data. Real estate runs on proprietary data, domain judgment, and a secret sauce that was never on the internet — and it's multidisciplinary on top of that: finance, legal, architectural, relationship-driven.Vibe coding: 100% and 0%. Adam's line is blunt. Vibe coding is 100% the right tool for prototyping and requirement gathering — it replaced weeks of whiteboarding and Figma mockups. For production code, it's 0%. None of it survives. He explains why, and it comes down to edge cases and maintainability.The maintenance trap. David's own experience: building something that works, then spending half your day keeping it alive instead of doing the job. The productivity gain never shows up.Digital teammates, not software. You're not buying an application. You're onboarding something you train, give feedback to, and measure — the same way you'd manage a first-year analyst.How you actually measure success. Booking a meeting is not the same as booking the right meeting. Adam walks through how AKTUS defines KPIs with a client during onboarding, and why measurement has to be designed in from day one rather than bolted on.Why AI hallucinates, explained simply. Context windows, the myth of the million-token window (only about 10% of it is effective), and why AI forgets the middle of a document the same way you forget the middle of a novel.Context engineering — and hiding data on purpose. Sometimes the right move is keeping data away from the model. Adam explains the system AKTUS built to ingest thousands of leases, zoning docs, and a 60-tab underwriting model without the whole thing falling apart.Five years to autopilot. Today AI recommends and a senior analyst edits. Adam's estimate for when AI makes the call itself — and why the answer depends entirely on how much high-quality decision data you've logged.Can AI invent something better than Excel? AKTUS is training AI to operate inside Excel. The next frontier is AI inventing the next abstraction layer entirely.Inside the Trion project. David breaks down the lead gen platform they're building with AKTUS — power-ranking properties against portfolio performance, drafting genuinely customized outreach, and killing spray and pray. Plus why AI drafts the email but doesn't send it.Overhyped and underhyped. Adam's answer: like the internet, AI is overhyped in the short term and underhyped in the long term. Specifically overhyped right now — drag-and-drop, one-shot deal screening.Chapters: 00:17 Introduction to AKTUS AI04:35 "Out-of-the-Box" AI Flaws in CRE07:19 The Role of Custom AI in Real Estate10:52 Where Vibe Coding Ends and Real Engineering Begins18:01 Iterative Learning and Decision-Making in AI18:31 Measuring Success in AI Implementations23:27 Future of AI in Financial Modeling25:04 Five Years Until AI Edits the Model Itself30:18 Real-Use Cases of AKTUS AI: 1,000s of Docs, 60-Tab Models, & More.35:42 Context Management and AI Limitations39:37 Digital Teammates: Redefining Roles in Real Estate44:49 Overhyped vs. Underhyped AI in Real Estate46:51 The Evolution of Organizational Structures with AIwww.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX:@dealflowfriday

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with veteran Los Angeles developer Paul Schon of SDG to discuss why the current market favors buying existing multifamily properties rather than pursuing ground-up development. After more than 15 years and 30 projects, Paul explains why rising construction and financing costs, extended timelines, inspection delays, Measure ULA and operational challenges have forced many experienced developers to pause new projects.Paul shares the details of a particularly compelling acquisition: buying back a property he originally developed and sold in 2021 for nearly 30% less than the previous sale price—and below what it cost to build before the pandemic. David and Paul break down why newer Los Angeles multifamily assets can now offer attractive going-in yields, positive leverage and limited new supply, despite the city’s political and regulatory risks.The conversation also explores the importance of in-house property management, the operational challenges of co-living, the risks surrounding ED1 affordable-housing projects and the difficulties of underwriting an exit without established comparable sales. Paul also offers advice for aspiring developers, including starting with smaller SB 9 or ADU projects, learning property operations and bringing valuable opportunities to experienced developers as a potential partner.Chapters00:17 Introduction: Paul Schon - SDG01:30 Waving the White Flag on Ground-Up Development05:18 Where are the Bottlenecks in LA Development?08:37 Buying Back His Own Building at a Discount13:21 The Bull Case for LA20:33 What Went Wrong With Co-Living?24:59 Breaking Down ED130:44 SB9 (The ADU Play)www.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem, Chief Investment Officer of Trion Properties, shares a live panel conversation from IMN’s Real Estate Private Funds Summer event in Newport, Rhode Island.The panel, titled “Global Economic Headwinds: Industry Leaders Dissect Macro Trends Reshaping CRE Valuations,” brought together leaders across real estate investment management, hospitality, multifamily operations, and fund structuring to discuss how capital is being underwritten and deployed in a market where returns can no longer rely on falling rates or cap rate compression.The conversation features Emi Adachi, Managing Director and Global Head of Investment Research at Heitman, Douglas J. Elsbeck, Partner at King & Spalding, Uma Moriarity, Senior Investment Strategist and Global Head of Sustainability at CenterSquare Investment Management, and Stephany Chen, Head of Investor Relations at Trinity Investments.Together, the panel breaks down how today’s higher-for-longer interest rate environment is reshaping underwriting, capital deployment, and investor expectations across real estate sectors. Uma explains why the valuation disconnect between public REIT markets, private appraisals, and transaction pricing continues to create friction in capital flows. With cap rate compression no longer driving returns, investors are being forced to focus on asset-level execution, durable cash flow, and hands-on management.David brings the multifamily operator perspective, highlighting how inflation, shelter cost data, and renter stress are showing up differently on the ground than in headline numbers. He discusses the shift from cap stack distress to operational distress, with owners now paying closer attention to bad debt, delinquency, rent roll deterioration, deferred maintenance, and true day-one yield. In this environment, he argues that operators must go back to the basics: positive leverage, realistic rent assumptions, and disciplined underwriting.Stephany offers the hospitality perspective, explaining why hotels can act as an inflation hedge through daily rate adjustments, while also emphasizing the importance of yield management, labor costs, diversified demand drivers, and local operating expertise. She also discusses how international and domestic investors are approaching U.S. hospitality differently in today’s geopolitical and capital markets environment.The panel also covers how institutional investors are changing the way they access real estate. Uma and Doug discuss the move away from traditional commingled funds toward joint ventures, separate accounts, sidecars, club deals, and other structures that give investors more agency over capital deployment. The discussion closes with a look at regulation, rent stabilization, political risk, and why operators with vertically integrated platforms may be best positioned to navigate the next phase of the cycle.Overall, this episode explores a central theme for today’s market: when falling rates and cap rate compression are no longer available to bail out a deal, returns have to be earned through disciplined underwriting, operational execution, and a clear understanding of risk.www.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Reed Goossens for an in-person operator-to-operator conversation on the current state of multifamily investing, capital markets, and where opportunity is starting to emerge after the reset. David shares the story of Trion Properties, from its roots buying non-performing notes and REO multifamily during the GFC to building a vertically integrated platform with a national footprint across California, Oregon, Colorado, the Southeast, and Texas. The conversation explores how Trion has evolved through market cycles, why vertical integration and property management have become even more important, and how operators are navigating the cracks now showing across both capital stacks and operations.David and Reed dig into the post-2022 multifamily reset, explaining why markets are finally being priced differently again after years of compressed cap rates and cheap debt. They discuss why going-in yield, day-one cash flow, positive leverage, and conservative rent growth assumptions matter more today than speculative value-add upside. They also unpack the difference between cap stack distress and operational distress, and why the next wave of forced sales may depend on whether property-level fundamentals continue to weaken.The episode also covers how operators are evaluating today’s market opportunities across the Sun Belt, West Coast, and secondary markets. David explains why Trion is focused on supply-demand fundamentals, market-specific strategies, and assets that can stand on their own without relying on aggressive rent growth or a quick refinance.Toward the end of the conversation, David shares why AI is one of the areas he is most excited about over the next six to twelve months. He discusses how Trion is using AI to connect underwriting data, CRM history, meeting notes, email, and market intelligence to create better workflows and sharper investment theses. Reed and David also explore how AI is lowering the barrier to building custom tools, improving lead generation, and helping operators find efficiencies that previously required expensive software development.This episode is a candid look inside how two experienced multifamily operators are thinking through today’s reset, what they are watching closely, and why the next cycle will reward discipline, creativity, and operational excellence.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Trion Properties and David Moghavem02:09 The Evolution of Trion Properties06:24 Market Strategies and Portfolio Diversification11:20 Navigating the Multifamily Market Reset22:30 The Role of AI in Real Estate Investment31:42 Conclusion and Future Outlookwww.dealflowfriday.comIG: @dealflowfridayX: @dealflowfriday