Exit poll predicts Labour landslide

Tomorrow Rachel Reeves will deliver her big speech in the City. The annual Mansion House address is a chance for the Chancellor to set out her vision for the British economy. But amid a gloomy set of economic indicators (including two consecutive monthly GDP contractions) it is difficult to see what good news she can offer.Westminster would be alive with speculation about what she might announce – initially, there was talk of reforms to cash ISAs; now, attention has turned to the prospect of Reeves promising a ‘new Big Bang’ by slashing regulation on financial services – however everyone is busy trying to work out who are the ‘working people’ the Labour government has pledged not to raise taxes for?Are they – as Heida Alexander argued over the weekend – ‘people on modest incomes’? Or, as Darren Jones suggested today, ‘anyone that gets a payslip, basically’? That is quite a difference in definition – so who exactly is a ‘working person’?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning’s political shows.Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander faces questions over the shrinking economy, possible autumn tax rises, and the migrant deal with France. Plus, the Ofcom CEO says new regulations are a big moment for online safety, and Chris Philp says Reform don't have the answers, after more Conservatives defect to the party.Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

As Labour looks to get a grip on public spending, one rebellion gives way to another with the changes to the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) system threatening to become welfare round two. On this week’s Saturday edition of Coffee House Shots, Lucy Dunn is joined by The Spectator’s Michael Simmons and former Ofsted chief Amanda Spielman to explore what the government is planning – and why so many Labour MPs are worried. Is the system failing the children it's meant to support, or simply costing too much? And can Labour afford to fix it without tearing itself apart?Listen for: Amanda on the unintended consequences of the 2014 SEND overhaul; why teaching assistants may not be the silver bullet schools think they are; and Labour’s mess over Ofsted. Michael Simmons also outlines the fiscal timebomb threatening local authorities; the cultural shift post-Covid that’s changed how we approach education; and why one Labour insider is warning, ‘If you thought cutting support for disabled adults was bad, wait till you try it with children.’Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

On today’s podcast: sacré bleu – we have a one-in, one-out migration deal with France. In a press conference yesterday, Keir Starmer and President Macron announced a deal they hope will curb Channel crossings. But, as ever, the devil is in the detail, with some key concerns about the numbers and the time frame. Digital ID cards are also back on the agenda – after an intervention from former MI6 boss Alex Younger on Newsnight. The argument is that they could deter the ‘grey labour force’ and make it harder to work in the UK for those arriving via unauthorised means. It’s the Blairite policy that refuses to go away – but, as Michael Simmons argues, we may already have the infrastructure. It’s not all rosy for the government, and we could well be heading for economic catastrophe. This follows the publication of the OBR’s Fiscal Risks and Sustainability document. The language is polite, matter-of-fact and bureaucratic. But read between the lines, look at the numbers, and it paints a damning picture of the risks we face as a country. Is a wealth tax the answer?Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

There is the small matter of the Macron–Starmer press conference today, at which the Prime Minister will hope to announce a new migration deal with France. But we thought we would dedicate today’s podcast to Angela Rayner. With some MPs thinking that the answer to Labour’s woes could be to ‘give it Ange until the end of the season’. As Tim Shipman reports in the magazine, she has undergone quite the political transformation – keeping her head down and away from incoming fire. Downing Street is taking her increasingly seriously. Is she the new John Prescott – or even the next Labour leader?Also on the podcast today: Jake Berry, former Conservative party chairman, defected to Reform last night. But how much of a coup is that really for Nigel’s gang?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

The public won’t forgive and nor will I, said Health Secretary Wes Streeting of plans by junior doctors to strike over his refusal to cave to demands for 29 per cent pay rises. Speaking to the Times he said: ‘There are no grounds for strike action now. Resident doctors have just received the highest pay award across the entire public sector. The Government can’t afford to offer more and it wouldn’t be fair to other NHS workers either, many of whom are paid less’. Is Wes Streeting right? And who's going to come out on top – the Health Secretary or the junior doctors? Meanwhile, Keir Starmer was very clear at PMQs: stating that ‘yes’, he stands by his manifesto commitments not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT – but he could not answer questions on wealth taxes or a freeze on tax thresholds. Watch this space...Lucy Dunn discusses with Tim Shipman and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Megan McElroy.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

Zut alors! The French are in town. Emmanuel Macron is on his state visit this week, spending time today with the King and tomorrow with the Prime Minister. His itinerary includes a state dinner and an address to both Houses of Parliament this afternoon.All the pageantry, of course, is for a reason: to defrost what Tim Shipman calls the ‘entente glaciale’ and the stalemate over migration. Keir will be hoping to get the French to sign a ‘one in, one out’ migration deal – with Labour seemingly surprised that, upon coming into power, the French didn’t roll over and make concessions on small boats when a left-wing government took office. Can we expect a new entente cordiale? Is there anything in it for Macron when it comes to stopping the boats?We also received the sad news today that Tory grandee Norman Tebbit and regular Spectator contributor Jonathan Miller have passed away. We remember both of them on the podcast.James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Freddy Gray.Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy. We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

Keir Starmer will have been hoping for a more relaxed week – but he certainly won’t be getting one. He is facing a fresh rebellion over support for children with special educational needs (SEND), which threatens to become welfare 2.0.The plan involves overhauling the SEND system and it’s another case of Labour MPs exclaiming that they didn’t stand on a Labour ticket just to target the most vulnerable in society. The main concern among backbenchers is whether it should be legally enforceable for parents to ensure their children receive bespoke support. Elsewhere, all roads lead to the Treasury, as Neil Kinnock has a solution for increasing Rachel Reeves’s headroom: a wealth tax. It’s the idea that never seems to go away – but will it just increase the number of billionaires fleeing the country?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

Cast your mind back a year. Labour had just won a storming majority, promising ‘change’ to a stale Tory party that was struggling to govern. But have things got any better?In the magazine this week, Tim Shipman writes the cover piece to mark the occasion of Labour’s first year in government. He takes readers through three chapters: from Sue Gray (freebies scandal and winter fuel cut) to Morgan McSweeney (a degree of professionalisation and dealing with the Donald) to the point at which ‘things fall apart’ (assisted dying, the welfare vote and Reeves’s tears).On the podcast, Tim is joined by The Spectator’s James Heale as well as sketchwriter and long-time Westminster mischief-maker Quentin Letts to go through the events and personalities that have contributed to the dysfunction.Listen for: Tim’s run-in with Lord Hermer at the US Ambassador’s bash; why Jeremy Corbyn’s mooted political party could cause a chasm in the Labour party to rival the one tearing the Conservatives apart; who the targets for the chop might be, should there be a reshuffle; how young members of the Labour party are beginning their charm offensive on Angela Rayner; and why politicians have failed to grasp the banal fundamentals that make a great political performer.Produced by Oscar Edmondson. We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]

Some sore heads on Coffee House Shots this morning, after last night’s Spectator summer party. But while we were having fun, a drama was brewing in the Labour party after it was finally confirmed that Jeremy Corbyn is starting a new left-wing party... or is he?The news was broken last night by another MP: Zarah Sultana, a long-time admirer of Corbyn. Elected as a Labour MP in 2019, she lost the whip last July for voting to lift the two-child-benefit cap. However, after discussions with figures within the Labour party, it has become apparent that Sultana took many of those involved completely by surprise. She has, in the words of one, ‘completely jumped the gun – no ideas had been properly decided’. It has plunged the new party into a crisis even before its creation. What next for Corbyn’s splinter party?Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected]