Analysis: Trump’s Middle East Strategy

On Tuesday night, President Trump delivered the first broadcast address of his second term to Congress. Though his remarks on the Middle East were sparing and largely expected, U.S. policy in the region has largely been the opposite. Trump’s pronouncements on Gaza have sent especially powerful shockwaves throughout the Middle East, and hints of a new approach to Iran have also elicited attention. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the state of U.S. Middle East policy and its possible future trajectories.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Max Bergmann, head of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS. Previously, Max held a variety of positions at the State Department, including senior adviser to the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. He later went on to serve as a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he researched security cooperation between Europe, Russia, and the United States. Together, Jon and Max discuss the Middle East issues that unite and divide European countries and how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be reshaping European perspectives on the region. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Martin Pimentel and Will Todman to evaluate the benefits, and costs, of U.S. unilateralism in the Middle East.  Transcript: "Max Bergmann: Does Europe Matter in the Middle East?," CSIS, February 27, 2025. Max Bergmann's recent report: "The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions," CSIS, February 14, 2025.

On Tuesday this week, Saudi Arabia hosted the first set of high-level talks between the United States and Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s role in facilitating the negotiations has drawn attention to Riyadh’s pursuit of an increasingly elevated status on the world stage. It also comes amid intensive U.S. efforts to win Saudi Arabia’s support for a normalization deal with Israel. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, to discuss what Saudi Arabia gains by hosting the talks and what this might signal about Riyadh’s next moves.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Alessandro Accorsi, a senior analyst for social media and conflict at the International Crisis Group. Prior to joining ICG, he worked for five years at the European External Action Service, where he led a taskforce countering foreign interference and information manipulation in the Middle East. He also worked for five years as a freelance journalist in Cairo. Transcript: "Alessandro Accorsi: Disinformation Warfare in the Middle East," CSIS, February 13, 2025. Alessandro Accorsi's recent work: "How Israel Mastered Information Warfare in Gaza," Foreign Policy, March 11, 2024.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is President Trump’s first foreign visitor since he re-entered the White House in January. The two men will meet Tuesday night, and Netanyahu will also meet key members of the new administration and allies on Capitol Hill. There is much on the potential agenda: the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, the Iranian nuclear program, Iran’s regional proxies, the fragile Lebanon ceasefire, Israeli outreach to Arab neighbors, and more. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, to offer insight into some of these issues and examine the current state, and possible future trajectories, of U.S.-Israel relations one month into President Trump’s second term.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Sinem Adar, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), where she works at the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies. Together, they discuss Turkey's evolving interests in Syria and their connection to Turkey’s wider foreign policy agenda. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Martin Pimentel and Will Todman to discuss the hard choices the United States needs to make about Turkey and Kurdish forces that have been fighting alongside U.S. troops in eastern Syria. Transcript: "Sinem Adar: Turkey's Syria Challenge," CSIS, January 28, 2025. Sinem Adar's recent work: "Turkey in MENA, MENA in Turkey," SWP, March 13, 2024.

Last Sunday, Hamas released three female Israeli hostages that it had kidnapped on October 7, in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody. The deal was the first step in the first phase of a three-phase agreement between Israel and Hamas that the Biden and Trump administrations brokered together, alongside the governments of Egypt and Qatar. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about where this conflict stands after 15 months of warfare and what we should expect in the coming weeks and months.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with eL Seed, an award-winning French-Tunisian artist whose monumental artwork blending the styles of Arabic calligraphy and graffiti is spreading in the Arab world and far beyond. His smaller works are in some of the most important museum collections around the world, but he takes special pride in his process of working with communities to select meaningful quotations to inspire his art and then to execute that artwork together. Jon and eL Seed discuss the cultural and political forces that shaped eL Seed's artistic evolution, as well as art’s role in spurring social change. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Martin Pimentel and Natasha Hall to discuss the ways art anchors Middle Eastern diaspora communities to their homelands and interacts with political movements across the Arab world. Transcript, "eL Seed: Arabic Calligraffiti," CSIS, January 14, 2025.

Just a month after Bashar al-Assad fell in Syria, the country is in the midst of a swirl of regional diplomacy. The new Syrian foreign minister is on another regional swing, and the foreign ministers of Germany and France visited Damascus. A central question is when and how the comprehensive sanctions placed on Syria during a half-century of Assad family rule will be lifted. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the prospects for these diplomatic efforts and what their results might signal about Syria’s future.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Will Todman and Natasha Hall, senior fellows at the CSIS Middle East Program, for a special episode on the sudden collapse of the Assad regime and what will replace it. Together, they discuss the promise and peril of this historic moment, and the domestic and regional forces moving aggressively to shape Syria’s new direction.