Peak Uncertainty: Forecasters wrestle with muddled outlooks for long-term oil demand (Ep. 220)

GreenFront Energy Partners, an investment bank based in Richmond, Va., is on a self-imposed mission to bring together the financial, intellectual, entrepreneurial, and natural resources to meaningfully decarbonize the global economy. The six-year-old firm caters to clients active in the energy-transition and offers services that include M&A advisory, capital raising, and corporate advisory. GreenFront Energy Partners co-founders Robert Birdsey, Adam Hahn, and Whit Wall join Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss how the energy-transition-focused investment bank advised clients during a year of policy volatility and highlight some of the low-carbon themes that have the firm most excited for 2026. Learn more about GreenFront Energy Partners at: https://greenfrontenergy.com/ Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

After a period of tightening natural gas supply since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we are entering a time of oversupply, as more LNG hits the market.  S&P Global Energy Global Gas expert Laurent Ruseckas, joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the interesting dynamic between falling prices and the impact this has, as natural gas is being considered crucial to the energy expansion.  Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en

The opportunity for carbon capture technology is expanding as the role of natural gas in power generation grows in an emissions-constrained world. Ion Clean Energy, which includes Chevron, ExxonMobil, Williams, and Carbon Direct as investors, is working to address this opportunity with its proprietary absorbent technology. Tim Vail, CEO of Ion Clean Energy, joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the company's innovations in carbon capture technology and how the market opportunity continues to grow as power markets seek clean, firm, dispatchable generation. Learn more about Ion Clean Energy here: https://www.ioncleanenergy.com/ Learn more about S&P Global Energy at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

Energy forecasters have long been calling for a near-term peak in global oil demand as year-over-year growth slows in the largest consumer markets of US, China, and Europe. These outlooks are being revisited as electric vehicle penetration underwhelms and the opportunity for petrochemical demand expands. Karim Fawaz, an S&P Global expert in global oil markets, joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss why the outlook for annual oil consumption is increasingly muddled and what sectors will be most important to driving global demand going forward. Learn more about S&P Global Commodity Insights energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

Earlier this year, New Zealand reversed a self-imposed ban on offshore oil and gas exploration begun in 2018 and is now allowing companies to apply for new licenses. Frankie Hulbert, an S&P Global expert in upstream exploration and development, joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss how New Zealand's renewed interest in domestic natural gas supply led to the reversal and whether operators now have enough confidence in policy to commit to fresh exploration plans. Learn more about S&P Global Commodity Insights energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

The upstream industry has faced many challenges over the last few years, but global sentiment seems to be shifting. In an environment of rapidly evolving geopolitics and a continued demand for resources, we explore how the industry is responding to this changing landscape. Joining hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys this week is Dan Pratt, Global Head of Upstream Solutions at S&P Global Commodity Insights, to talk about the global appetite for upstream oil and gas, what countries are doing to attract investors and the role AI will have in the future of exploration.  Learn more about S&P Global Commodity Insights energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

The maritime and shipping sector, which accounts for 80% of global trade and 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, is under increasing pressure to decarbonize.  Dana Rodriguez, Programme Manager at The Decarb Hub, and Aroob Sheikh, Shipping and Freight Reporter at S&P Global, join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the steps being taken within the shipping industry to reach net zero, from retrofitting the existing fleet to dual fuel technology. Learn more about The Decarb Hub at: Accelerating decarbonisation in shipping | The Decarb Hub Learn more about S&P Global Commodity Insights energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en 

ENGIE Impact works with corporate and industrial clients to manage their energy portfolios and make progress toward sustainability targets through the procurement of renewable energy. Rick Margolin, Director of Resource Optimization and Renewable Energy at ENGIE Impact, joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss how industrial consumers can smooth volatility, reduce costs, and make progress toward sustainability goals by increasing the weight of renewable sources in their energy portfolios. Learn more about ENGIE Impact at: https://www.engieimpact.com/ Learn more about S&P Global Commodity Insights energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) was signed on July 4, 2025, and rewrote many of the rules associated with federal tax credits supporting low-carbon energy projects in the US. S&P Global Commodity Insights experts Anna Mosby and Conway Irwin join Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss how the OBBBA may influence the development of various energy technologies and when these new rules take effect. Learn more about S&P Global Commodity Insights energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en

Rich Africa Consultancy is a strategic advisory firm based in Namibia, specializing in natural resources law, energy policy, and sustainable investment. Since 2011, it has guided governments and businesses in unlocking value from Africa's resource wealth through expert advice, ESG alignment and thought leadership.  Ndapwilapo Selma Shimutwikeni, founder and CEO of Rich Africa Consultancy, joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss Namibia's transforming oil and gas landscape, as the country moves to first oil from its major discovery, and the role expectation management plays in achieving that milestone. Find out more about Rich Africa Consultancy